Sunday wraps up the weekend with a six-game NBA slate, locking at 6:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Zion Williamson, LeBron James, Luka Doncic and a plethora of Jazz understudies!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Sunday, March 2
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Zion Williamson: Pelicans at Jazz
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 45.72 | FanDuel: 45.69
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 17.5% | FanDuel: 31.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $9,100
After a surprise 117-116 victory on Friday in front of their fans, the Utah Jazz have decided to rest their top five players. Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, John Collins, Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson have all been ruled out. Yes, there are some legitimate injury/maintenance reasons to sit some of these guys, but more importantly, a loss to New Orleans would give the Jazz a two-game cushion for the third-worst record in the league, “ahead” of the Pelicans.
Zion Williamson is coming off his best game of the year, with 27 points, 10 rebounds, 11 assists and two blocks for his fifth-career triple-double. New Orleans won the last three games where Zion played, and while it isn’t likely he will go over 30 minutes many times down the stretch, he logged 28.7 minutes on average in his last five appearances. Across 16 outings since the start of January, Williamson averaged 27.3 minutes and 16.7 field goal attempts with a 60.3% success rate. This culminated in 24.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 2.4 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals). He produced at least 40 fantasy points in 13 of these games (81%), including five games (31%) of 50-plus fantasy points. Kyle Filipowski, KJ Martin and Micah Potter should do little to deter Williamson in the paint.
Trey Murphy III and CJ McCollum have been struggling, with each topping 30 fantasy points only once in the last four games. They are viable tournament options in what should be a fantasy-friendly environment. Their current salaries are helping to keep their popularity in check, which is something the savvy gamer will want to consider.
Journeyman Kelly Olynyk and rookie Yves Missi are likely to remain in the starting lineup, though they will lose out on some usage to Williamson. Olynyk led the team in rebounding in each of his last three games, including two with Zion. Jose “Grand Theft” Alvarado is also a wild card, though he averaged only 20.9 minutes off the bench in the most recent trio of tilts. This coincided with the availability of Bruce Brown Jr. and Jordan Hawkins getting some “hot hand” minutes, which were rewarded with a spot start on Friday.
Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George will continue to split the point guard minutes, though their in-game overlap should increase by a couple minutes with Clarkson and Sexton sitting. In his last three spot starts, Filipowski tallied 28, 30 and 48 fantasy points. If he can avoid foul trouble, the rookie should push for low-30s run. Svi Mykhailiuk and Brice Sensabaugh are only interesting if they are in the starting lineup, and even then, it will be a volatile minutes adventure.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Luka Doncic: Lakers vs. Clippers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 54.96 | FanDuel: 53.49
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 17.1% | FanDuel: 24.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $11,400
Luka Doncic celebrated his 26th birthday in style, leading the Lakers to a 106-102 victory against the Clippers. The crosstown rivals are playing again tonight in Crypto Arena, with injury situations on both teams making for some interesting decision points.
Rui Hachimura (left patella) is out for at least a week, and Austin Reaves is doubtful after leaving in the first quarter on Friday with a calf injury. That leaves a void of 32 points, 9.4 rebounds, nearly 65 minutes and, most importantly, two dozen field goal attempts to be redistributed.
Most of the offensive opportunities will go to Doncic and LeBron James, with the duo also likely being the lead facilitators given veteran point guard Jordan Goodwin (ankle) is doubtful. This consolidation of the fantasy production is crucial as the Clippers have a solid defense and a preference for slowing down the game.
Dorian Finney-Smith started for Hachimura, though his role is as a defender and occasional floor-spacer. In his 23 games as a Laker, including seven starts, Finney-Smith has yet to produce 25 fantasy points in a game despite averaging a solid 26.3 minutes. Currently, the Stokastic starting lineup page is listing Gabe Vincent as the most likely player to replace Reaves. The late-blooming combo guard happily defers to the stars when he is on the court. Defense is his main calling card, with his fantasy production buoyed by four steals on Friday.
Jaxson Hayes and Trey Jemison III split the center minutes 26/22 as recent waiver wire addition Alex Len was anchored to the bench for the last three games, playing once in the last five for a scant 3:19 in mop-up duty.
Norman Powell will join Kawhi Leonard and James Harden for the first time in five games. This makes things a little tricky as the salaries have normalized for Powell’s extended absence. Derrick Jones Jr. is out with a groin strain, with Kris Dunn the most likely replacement. Dunn had 40-plus fantasy points in three of his last five games, though he also had a combined 15 steals in those outings.
Ivica Zubac had a strong game against the Lakers 48 hours ago, and he is averaging career highs with 32.1 minutes, 11.1 field goal attempts, 15.5 points, 12.6 rebounds (fourth overall), 2.5 assists and a pair of stocks. He is projected to be on fewer than 10% of all tournament lineups on the main DFS sites, which makes him a strong differentiation play.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Tonight we can look to the under for Naz Reid’s 21.5 points prop on BetRivers, SugarHouse and Unibet, where this wager is available at -115.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 2.8% ROI. The combination of today’s variables, along with the -115 odds, results in an elite 8.7% expected value when factoring in the -139 “True Odds.”
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Reid projected for 34.1 minutes and 17.48 points. We can see towards the bottom of the screenshot that most books have set this threshold at 20.5 points while offering significantly worst -125 odds. Furthermore, sharp book Pinnacle has the under 20.5 at -141, which is downright punitive. Be a savvy shopper!
Over his last 12 games as a starter, Reid averaged 36.8 minutes and 20.4 points and scored more than 22 points nine times (75%), though he had exactly 22 four times (25%).
Julius Randle missed each of these contests, but he is getting close to a return. Donte DiVincenzo has been back for two games, and he could cut into Reid’s offensive attempts just enough to make it a tough go to reach 22 points on the road in Phoenix. Rudy Gobert remains out, but he does not have much of an impact on Reid’s offense.
