NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Losers Go Home! (April 16)

Wednesday brings the first elimination game of the Play-In Tournament, with the action tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks: Anthony Davis as the priority, Kevin Huerter as the punt du jour and Josh Giddey the volatile variable.

These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Wednesday, April 16

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

After sustaining an injury in his Dallas debut, Davis missed 18 games. He did play in eight of the final 11 games, so he at least has some familiarity with his new teammates. Not having Kyrie Irving, of course, hurts, which is how the Mavs ended up in the Play-In Tournament to start with — well, that and trading away Doncic.

Across his final four appearances, Davis averaged 30 minutes, 24.3 points, 12 rebounds, 4.5 assists and a stellar 3.8 “stocks” (combined steals and blocks). This stretch included three double-doubles and was highlighted by a 23-13-10 triple-double with seven blocks against Toronto in the penultimate regular season tilt.

In his last nine regular season games against Domantas Sabonis, Davis averaged 13.1 boards, so even the Rebound King cannot slow him down when he is motivated.

PJ Washington is projecting to be the most popular Dallas player on FanDuel ($6,500, 34.5%), where he has utility, with dual-forward eligibility. DraftKings ($7,300, 13.5%) is a different story, where his higher salary has more than halved his projected popularity. It is particularly paramount to understand the vagaries of the different DFS sites as we embark on the postseason journey for the next 10 weeks.

Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall are neutral options, expecting to be on approximately one-in-five tournament rosters. Jaden Hardy is the punt du jour on DraftKings ($3,200, 16.4%), though he is an afterthought on FanDuel ($4,200, 6.9%). Keep tabs on the status of Brandon Williams (oblique) as his availability will directly impact Hardy. If Williams is out, then Hardy will see an increase in his popularity; if Williams is a go, then there is a non-zero chance that Hardy will be a DNP-CD. This would be more in the vein of Vince Williams Jr. for Memphis last night rather than Jonathan Kuminga, who apparently is in Steve Kerr’s doghouse.

Spencer Dinwiddie has become a completely different player when Davis is on the court. This season in 1,124 minutes without Doncic, Irving and Davis on the court, the journeyman facilitator averaged about 0.9 fantasy points per minute with a 24.2% assist rate and an 18.8% usage rate. In his 143 minutes with Davis, those rates jumped to 1.15 fantasy points per minute with a 44.3% assist rate and an uptick to 21.3% usage. It is a small sample, size and, of course, the Dallas frontline was missing lob men Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford for a lot of the season, but dang, what a different Davis has made in pulling Dinwiddie out of the doldrums.

Per the F-R-E-E Stokastic Starting Lineups page, it looks like Gafford is going to get the nod to over Lively to begin the game, though each projects for between 18 and 20 minutes as the most realistic outcome, with Davis or Washington also getting run at the five.

Malik Monk is done for the rest of the season with a calf injury, which moves around some minutes in the middle of the rotation. This Sacramento roster is not particularly well constructed, missing a point guard. That is a shame since the Kings traded away De’Aaron Fox earlier this season and, of course, Tyrese Haliburton a couple years ago. That has Keon Ellis likely starting, and while he is not much of a fantasy per-minute producer, focusing more on defense, he should be on the court for close to 30 minutes.

Most offensive possessions are going to see one or more of Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan or Zach LaVine initiating the offense after Ellis brings the ball up the floor. Sabonis was once more the Rebound King, leading the league for the third consecutive season while posting a second straight personal-best average. He also crushed it with 61 double-doubles in his 70 (87%), with 10 triple-doubles showing the upside. He is now three weeks removed from his hamstring issue, which should give him a floor of around 35 to 37 minutes, with a chance for 40-plus in this must-win game.

The salaries for LaVine and DeRozan are lofty, though each is in play since teammate Trey Lyles is a key discount dandy on both DraftKings ($3,900, 51.1%) and FanDuel ($4,400, 35.9%). He will see some trickledown minutes via the absence of Monk, also backing up Sabonis for the few minutes he is off the court.

Keegan Murray is m-e-h, MEH, but he is starting and can at least rebound and occasionally knock down a 3-pointer or get to the line. It will be interesting to see how Jonas Valanciunas will be deployed and if he will get more than one rotation. If not, he will be mired in single-digit minutes and torpedo the lineups of his DFS supporters.

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The Stokastic Projections have THT for around nine minutes, with Carter not expected to leave the bench. This is important to call out since gamers have been seeing this duo get run. Josh Giddey is back, which is going to tighten up the rotation, and it is hard to feel great about any of the Chicago reserves.

Giddey has the third-highest median fantasy point projection tonight, trailing only Davis and Sabonis. Oh, what a world we live in, considering the Australian pretty much fell out of the rotation in the postseason last year with Oklahoma City. In the Western Conference Finals against Dallas, Giddey started the first four games of the series but averaged a scant 13.3 minutes per game, coming off the bench in the last two games for around 11 minutes. Of course, his role is entirely different with Chicago, but the change in the last 11 months is wild.

Coby White continues to have a terrific season, becoming the primary scorer for Chicago, while veteran pivotman Nikola Vucevic keeps chugging along. Vucevic will be the most popular center-only player on FanDuel ($8,200, 32.4%), with young Kel’el Ware ($6,100, 18.3%) ranking second and Lively ($4,800, 11.3%) the other center-only player reaching double-digit representation, and that is tenuous.

Rookie Matas Buzelis tends to defer to the Bulls’ “big three,” but he at least gets minutes and has been a pesky defender and rebounder. Speaking of defense, Patrick Williams is the one reserve who should push for 20 minutes of run, but his usage and fantasy upside is nominal.

Andrew Wiggins missed seven of the last nine games for Miami and 15 of 32 since being traded from Golden State as part of the Jimmy Butler deal. Both he and Tyler Herro (bruised thigh) are not on the injury report, so expect regular run in this loser-out battle. Wiggins is hard to trust, considering he has hardly played with the rest of the Heat, but he will be on the court. He has postseason experience, is a good defender and can score, so hopefully the field stays away from him, but the savvy gamer should not.

Herro is, of course, a foundational play, along with Bam Adebayo, since they form the heart and soul of the team while also being the best fantasy producers. There is not salary break for this duo on DraftKings, but they are popping on the blue site.

Ware is a rookie wild card but still in play — then we get to the chaos of unknowns, which will further be exacerbated by the whims of coach Erick Spoelstra.

Nikola Jovic has not played since fracturing his hand on Feb. 23, but he is currently listed as questionable. Rookie Pelle Larrson had worked his way into the rotation over the last month of the season, with a sprinkling of DNPs, but he had a weightlifting incident that resulted in an ankle issue that has him also questionable. Kevin Love is unlikely to play, but who knows.

Second-year wing Jaime Jaquez went from starting games in January to out of the rotation to starting a few games in March then being banished back to the netherworld. Then there is the versatile (though not particularly good) Haywood Highsmith and the offensively minded Duncan Robinson, with veteran combo guard Alec Burks lurking. Yikes!

This all has the potential to impact Davion Mitchell, who had been playing key minutes as a dogged defender and low-usage offensive option, giving way to Herro and Adebayo. Best guess is Mitchell will clear 28 minutes as a reserve, but not by much. Highsmith is a lengthy defender who could mess with Giddey, so if he finds success, he has a path to around 20 minutes. Of course, if the team needs offense to close a double-digit deficit, this trio is in trouble.

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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

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