Saturday welcomes the weekend with a festive featured slate, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Given the variables in play as the NBA season rolls along, today we are identifying the best NBA DFS building blocks and picks. Let’s break down Saturday’s options like Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in a fantasy friendly matchup against Charlotte, while the short-handed Timberwolves welcome the dilapidated defense of the Washington Wizards into Minnesota.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, Feb. 1
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Nikola Jokic: Nuggets at Hornets
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 64.11 | FanDuel: 61.51
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 31.1% | FanDuel: 4.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $12,700
This is a back-to-back for Denver, as well as the third game in four nights and fourth in six days. Friday it took a full-team effort to hold off the injury depleted 76ers, 137-134 in Philadelphia. The Nuggets finally got the lead for the final time, with just under a minute to go and while they led most of the matchup, it was by only 2.97 points on average.
Russell Westbrook (hamstring) left the game early in the fourth quarter and he is currently listed as doubtful for Saturday’s contest.
Three-time and reigning NBA MVP Nikola Jokic continues chugging along at an otherworldly pace and this is the perfect time for Denver to try and get a cushion against the Lakers, who are without Anthony Davis (abdominal strain) for the next week. Aaron Gordon has been working his way back from a calf injury that cost him nine games. He has played 10 of 11 games since returning, returning to the first five over the last two for 30.5 and 31.7 minutes. Keep tabs on his status for tonight, as it would not be a surprise if he sits or is on some sort of soft minutes limit as the Nuggets would be paper thin on the depth charts if their do-everything forward is lost to injury again.
LaMelo Ball and Cody Martin remain out, Josh Okogie (hamstring) is doubtful after getting hurt last night and Mark Williams (foot) is being monitored with injury and overuse concerns. It would not be a surprise to see Williams play as this would be a great matchup for him to test his mettle, but it would not change the fact that Denver will be double-digit favorites in the Queen City tonight. Over his last six games, Williams has crossed over the 50-fantasy point plateau four times, with 40 and 32 fantasy points in the other two efforts. Keep in mind, his foot issue is a maintenance situation and not something to be concerned about if he is back with the starting unit.
Miles Bridges, Nick Smith and Vasilije Micic would be the other Charlotte options, though the latter two only have appeal on FanDuel. Speaking of the blue site, Williams is projecting for around 40% tournament representation, while Jokic is unlikely to get much into double-digits. This makes for an immediate differentiation spot for those looking to find a wild card with The Joker.
Turning our attention back to the Nuggets, Jamal Murray is a desirable target tonight, since he will see more scoring responsibilities as well as running the show when Jokic is off the court. Michael Porter Jr. is a secondary target, while the Denver understudies could become a source of value at several positions, depending on how things shake out with Westbrook and Gordon.
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Naz Reid: Timberwolves vs. Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 32.37 | FanDuel: 31.59
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 51.5% | FanDuel: 48.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $6,100
Julius Randle (groin) is going to miss at least a week and Donte DiVincenzo (toe) likely is out through the All-Star Break. Additionally, Mike Conley is dealing with a sprained right thumb and tonight would be a perfect spot for a strategic second-consecutive night off, with the Timberwolves all but assured of victory in Minnesota.
Shout out to the Washington Wizards, who have the fourth-worst defensive efficiency rating (119.1) in the league over the last 10 games. Why is this good, well dear reader, for the season, the Wizards are the worst team in the league, allowing 118.7 points per 100 possessions. The team is continuing to play at a top-five pace and when Jordan Poole’s shot is falling, he can at least force opposing teams to play key players into the final frame.
Naz Reid currently projects as the most popular player across all of the major DFS platforms. This makes sense as Reid sees a 10% increase in his fantasy points per minute, to 1.1, with the main boost in scoring and an uptick in his assist rate, when Randle is off the court. Though he has only cleared 40 fantasy points a handful of times this season, that ceiling is available tonight, while being supported by close to a 30 fantasy point floor.
Anthony Edwards is seventh in the league this season with a 30.9% usage rate, which increases to 34.2% when Randle is off the court. After averaging 24.5 points per game over his first 33 appearances, Edwards has kicked things up a notch with 31.3 points per performance over his last 15 tilts. In this stretch, he is also averaging 5.9 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.8 combined blocks and steals. He is getting there on serious minutes (38.0), which may not come to fruition tonight, though the extra usage and efficiency against an inferior opponent will help mitigate that aspect of the equation.
If Conley plays, he is fine as a tournament filler, however, the 37-year-old veteran of 18 NBA campaigns is averaging a career-low 24.7 minutes this season and he will be one of the first to the bench in a lopsided game. If Conley is out, rookie Rob Dillingham would have a path to more secure minutes and the upside of mop-up duty, against the team that made Bronny James look competent earlier this week.
Jaden McDaniels should thrive in this up-tempo affair and wash away that dreadful single-digit fantasy point performance in Utah during his last start. He had 28-plus fantasy points in eight of his nine games heading into that debacle, so expect a return to that level of production, aided by both defensive opportunities and more field goal attempts.
It is hard to be excited by Rudy Gobert on FanDuel, where he is projecting for around 10% popularity. Yes, he could get to 40 fantasy points against the hapless Washington frontcourt, but he could also eschew looking for his shot as he normally does and barely break the 20 fantasy point barrier.
There is a chance that Malcolm Brogdon returns to action after missing nearly a month with a foot issue. That makes things a little crowded for Poole and Kyle Kuzma, when it comes to offensive opportunities, against an already stingy defense. Rookie Alexandre Sarr is out, which means there is a chance for Jonas Valanciunas to get a spot start and at least shadow the minutes of Gobert.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Victor Wembanyama is never fun to root against, but there is value in his under 13.5 rebounds prop tonight against Miami.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 57% of the time. That combined with the -120 odds on DraftKings leads to fantastic 5.3% expected value when accounting for the -135 “True Odds.”
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Wembanyama projected for 33.4 minutes and 12.11 rebounds. This is a back-to-back for the Spurs, who topped the Milwaukee Bucks 144-118 in a laugher last night, that saw the French Phenom needed for only 30.5 minutes, posting 30 points and 14 rebounds, with a six-block exclamation point.
Keep in mind that while San Antonio is home again tonight, the team also travelled to France and back in the last week, for a two-game set with the Indianapolis Pacers. That is a lot of travel and emotion, plus 14 rebounds is a lofty number, even though Wembanyama got there last night.
In 40 games this year, Wembanyama has 14 or more rebounds 10 (25%) times. Even Domantas Sabonis, who is averaging a personal high 14.5 rebounds per game has reached this milestone in only half of his 44 appearances. If the Rebound King, who is leading the league for the third-consecutive season is the best at clearing this threshold just 50% of the time, that is more grist for the mill.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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