Thursday wraps up the first segment of the regular season with a five-game featured slate, locking at 7:30 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Given the constant flux of the NBA season, we’re breaking down the top building blocks for NBA DFS picks today. The best options for Thursday’s slate include Trey Murphy III, Jose Alvarado, Kyrie Irving, Bam Adebayo and others.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Thursday, Feb. 13
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Trey Murphy III: Pelicans vs. Kings
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 39.65 | FanDuel: 39.09
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 14.2% | FanDuel: 22.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $8,300
Zion Williamson is unlikely to play on the back-to-back, Dejounte Murray is out for the rest of the season and Brandon Ingram is now in Toronto. This has solidified Trey Murphy III as a key offensive focal point, which has been a fun development.
Clearly, it is not a new situation, so all of this is baked into his salary on DraftKings and FanDuel. However, it is his floor that is particularly appealing, giving him the nod as the foundational play of the day.
In his last 23 games, the 24-year-old averaged 25.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 2.0 combined blocks and steals while sinking 3.5 3-pointers on 8.7 attempts (41%). He produced at least 38 fantasy points in 17 of these games (74%), with five (22%) forays over the 50-fantasy point plateau. This is the third time these teams have met in the last week, but do not lose faith in the game logs; Murphy had a rough night from the field yesterday, which he hopefully will rectify tonight.
Jose Alvarado cleared 40 fantasy points last night, erasing his dreadful single-digit outing on Monday in Oklahoma City. In his last two games against the Kings, he had five steals, living up to his nickname “Grand Theft” Alvarado. If rookie Karlo Matkovic ends up getting another spot start in place of Williamson, he is one of the better punts on the slate.
CJ McCollum and Yves Missi are secondary tournament targets, though Missi is likely to be underrepresented in tournaments with the ample number of frontcourt options tonight.
Domantas Sabonis leads the league with 48 double-doubles in his 51 starts, and he also has a solid eight triple-doubles. The Rebound King is at the top of that category as well for a third consecutive season, with a career-high 14.3 per game. However, his scoring dipped to 16.6 points per game over the last eight, though he has still been facilitating a lot of the offense with De’Aaron Fox now in San Antonio. Sabonis is a tertiary target, and while he has a safe floor, getting to 50 fantasy points is something he has not been able to do in this timeframe. Finally, Malik Monk, DeMar DeRozan and newcomer Zach LaVine are fine to sprinkle across tournament portfolios.
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Kyrie Irving: Mavericks vs. Heat
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 46.64 | FanDuel: 45.01
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 17.2% | FanDuel: 39.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,300 | FanDuel: $9,100
Last night, Kyrie Irving stepped up and led the Mavericks to a 111-107 victory over the Golden State Warriors in a game that went down to the wire. This win was highlighted by his 42 points and late-game charge that helped secure the contest for Dallas.
Even though Irving played a lofty 40 minutes, the Mavs will need him to run it back in order to head into the break with momentum. The Miami defense is not as good as it was in season’s past, though most of the attention will land on Irving.
The supporting cast is thin with Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Naji Marshall acting as the “center” last night, as the top 5 options on the roster are all hurt. They are reasonable targets tonight, though the upside is pretty sparse. Max Christie has been forced to step up on offense since joining his new team, and he has answered the bell while also adding some defensive stats.
Kessler Edwards is intriguing if he gets another start, but know he is a poor offensive option who needs to get his fantasy production via other means. Klay Thompson is the opposite, of course, but DFS gamers are well aware of the aging marksman’s limitations.
Bam Adebayo is now the heart and soul of the Heat with Jimmy Butler on the opposite coast. In his last eight games, Adebayo averaged 23.1 points, 10.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.4 combined blocks and steals. He had a pair of 50-fantasy point outings and a nice 69-fantasy point performance as his season high to start the month.
Duncan Robinson was out last night with an illness, and he is currently questionable. Tyler Herro missed Monday’s game against Boston, but he was able to give it a go last night, albeit looking a little anemic on the court. He and Andrew Wiggins are tournament targets on the blue site while being DraftKings dart throws.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Max Christie stands out in the sports wagering world with the under on his 5.5 rebounds prop on SugarHouse, Unibet and BetRivers. This trio of operators has this wager currently listed at -120, which is well above the -140 or worse posted by the rest of the major sites.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 59% of the time. That combined with the -120 odds on SugarHouse, Unibet and BetRivers leads to a scintillating 7.7% expected value when accounting for the -142 “True Odds.”
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Christie projected for a hefty 37.8 minutes and 5.44 rebounds. This projection also accounts for Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, Dwight Powell and P.J. Washington being out.
Last night, Christie made his first start since joining Dallas. His calling card is as a 3-D wing, though the sheer number of injuries for the Mavericks have had him playing heavy minutes off the bench. On Wednesday, he corralled five caroms, despite his significant playing time (39.3 minutes).
All told, in his five games for the team that traded Luka Doncic, Christie averaged 33.6 minutes and 5.2 rebounds, totaling 15 in the first two games and 11 in the subsequent trio of tilts. This wager is likely to go down to the wire, but the math is on our side.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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