Monday brings a monster slate after a light Sunday, and the fun tips off at 7 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. With so many variables at play as the NBA season progresses, today’s focus is on identifying the best NBA DFS building blocks and top picks. Let’s break down Monday’s top options, with Kyrie Irving and Daniel Gafford standing out for the Mavericks and Keaton Wallace winning “bargain of the night” honors.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Monday, Jan. 27
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Kyrie Irving: Mavericks vs. Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 52.52 | FanDuel: 50.55
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 52.1% | FanDuel: 77.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,900 | FanDuel: $8,600
It has been a while since Kyrie Irving has been a featured recommendation, but the salary and matchup have aligned, even with the expansive player pool.
Dallas has been losing ground in the standings without Luka Doncic, sitting at a 24-22 record on the season and a 5-11 record since he went down with his most recent injury.
This is a must-win game — not for the season, but for the fact that Dallas is a 12.5-point home favorite against the dreadful Washington defense. This year, the Wizards have the worst defensive rating in the league, allowing 116.2 points per 100 possessions while playing at the fourth-fastest pace.
After a one-game absence, Irving was quite productive in his last five appearances, averaging 39.8 minutes and 20.8 field goal attempts with a 49.0% success rate. This culminated in 28.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.4 combined blocks and steals. Anything less than 50 fantasy points tonight will be a disappointment.
Daniel Gafford no longer has to split minutes with Dereck Lively II, who is out with a stress fracture in his right ankle, with no chance of returning before early April. Gafford has his own injury issues, along with a propensity to get into foul trouble, but this is a great matchup for him against one of his former teams. He should double-double and has a strong probability of a 20-10 game. In his last four outings, he averaged 30.6 minutes, 19.0 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 4.3 combined blocks and steals.
On FanDuel, it is going to be a fun decision point going with Gafford ($7,500, 39.6%) or Nikola Jokic (12,800, 9.9%), while Nikola Vucevic ($8,200, 9.1%) is the other center-only option drawing attention from the field. Olivier-Maxence Prosper is a fine punt play on the main DFS sites, and Spencer “Remember Me?!” Dinwiddie and Klay Thompson rate out above average on FanDuel.
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Keaton Wallace: Hawks at Timberwolves
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 24.9 | FanDuel: 24.18
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 43.9% | FanDuel: 58.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,800 | FanDuel: $3,900
Keaton Wallace will be the punt du jour across the DFS industry if he draws a spot start as expected for Trae Young (hamstring). Two weeks ago he played 38.5 minutes in place of Young, logging 27 points, six rebounds, eight assists and four steals in Chicago. That is an outlier game, but he should be a foundational play with at least 20 fantasy points, and he has 7 to 10 more in attainable upside.
Jalen Johnson (shoulder) is out for the next two weeks, while De’Andre Hunter is battling an illness that cost him Saturday’s game. Larry Nance Jr. returned to action but seemed to reinjure his surgically repaired hand, so his status is questionable. That means extra opportunities for Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu in the frontcourt, and Dyson Daniels should pick up some of the offensive opportunities Young vacates.
Minnesota has been meandering with a 4-4 record over the last eight games, though tonight is a bankable win as the Timberwolves are 12.5-point favorites. Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle and Naz Reid are tertiary tournament options for the featured slate, but do not lose sight of them on the mid-evening subslate.
Jaden McDaniels is worthy of our consideration since he is seeing an increase in minutes and offensive opportunities without Donte DiVincenzo. In his first 39 games of the season, McDaniels averaged 30.0 minutes and 8.8 field goal attempts, resulting in 10.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 2.2 combined blocks and steals. Over his last five games, that increased to 37.1 minutes, 11.6 field goal attempts, 14.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 3.2 combined blocks and steals.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Lauri Markkanen is someone to consider targeting for the over on his 3.5 made 3-pointers prop in a strong matchup against Milwaukee
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 49% of the time. That combined with the +120 odds on DraftKings leads to superb 7.0% expected value when accounting for the +106 “True Odds.”
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Markkanen projected for 29.1 minutes and 2.88 made 3-poiners. That is, of course, below the four needed for this wager to succeed but also a median projection, rather than a range of outcomes that will come to fruition as the game is played.
We can see by the red arrows in the screenshot that this number is falling, so act fast before it likely averages out to a +105 line on the most favorable books. The Finnisher is averaging a career-high 8.4 3-point attempts per game, with his 35.6% success rate well below his 39.5% mark from his first two seasons with the Jazz. Markkanen knocked down four or more triples in 11 of his 33 (33%) games. It is crucial to get this wager at the +120 while possible.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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