Saturday welcomes the weekend with a festive five-game NBA slate, locking at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Kyrie Irving, Moses Brown, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ja Morant and more!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Saturday, Mar. 1
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Kyrie Irving: Mavericks vs. Bucks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 42.58 | FanDuel: 41.56
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 8.1% | FanDuel: 16.0%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $9,400
This is an “island game” for the Mavericks who played on Thursday, with their next game on Monday. Dallas has rallied with a 6-3 record over the last nine games, with victories in Boston and against Golden State and Houston. The last two losses were in San Francisco and Los Angeles, which is nothing to be ashamed of.
Over his last six games, Kyrie Irving is averaging 38.5 minutes and 23.5 field goal attempts, with a 47.5% success rate, including converting on 40% of his 9.2 3-point attempts. This has culminated in 30.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.9 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals), with a trio of 50-fantasy point games and one where he crested over 60 fantasy points. The Mavericks are 3.5-point home dogs, so the nine-time All-Star is once again going to be called upon to carry the load.
The Dallas frontcourt is very thin, with Anthony Davis (adductor) and Dereck Lively II (ankle) out for at least another three weeks, with Daniel Gafford (knee) done for the season. PJ Washington (ankle) is questionable, having missed Thursday’s action, as well as four of the last seven games with the same malady. That leaves 33-year-old Dwight Powell to see around 15-to-16 minutes per appearance, until his next injury and Kessler Edwards, who is playing out of position.
Moses Brown is on a 10-day contract that runs through the weekend and the 7′ 2″ and 245 pound journeyman at least gives the Mavs some size in the post. He had a spot-start against Charlotte, playing 30.7 minutes with 20 points, 11 rebounds and five stocks. Even if Washington is available, Brown is likely to get another start tonight. If that comes to fruition, he is a solid option on both DraftKings ($4,900, 30.7%) and FanDuel ($4,800, 37.9%). Washington and Naji Marshall round out the quartet of desirable Dallas DFSers.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are both probable, while also projecting as the first and fifth best fantasy points on DraftKings, with Lillard sliding up one slot on the blue site. Antetokounmpo was on a minutes limit coming out of the All-Star break, though he has logged 31, 31 and 32 minutes during his last three games. Lillard has been in a funk after the mid-season respite, connecting on just 38.3% of his 15 field goal attempts over the last four games. he is draining 37.8% of his 9.3 triples and if it is Dame Time, then he could crush on this relatively short Saturday slate.
In the five games without Bobby Portis (suspended), Kyle Kuzma is averaging a healthy 35.4 minutes, though he has yet to reach the 40 fantasy point plateau. Soon-to-be 37-year-old Brook Lopez has been the better fantasy point per dollar play in this stretch, though both are tertiary options tonight.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Ja Morant: Grizzlies vs. Spurs
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 42.55 | FanDuel: 40.93
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 21.1% | FanDuel: 34.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $8,300
It has been quite a while since Ja Morant was mentioned in this article series, let alone being a featured recommendation. That is the beauty of NBA DFS, with fluctuating salaries, ever-shifting rotations and variable matchups, we have a new puzzle every day.
Memphis has struggled, winning only three of the last eight games. This has allowed the surging Lakers and the steady success of the Nuggets to catch up with the Grizzlies and Houston Rockets. Oklahoma City has the top-seed on lockdown, but the other four teams earning homecourt advantage in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs is up for grabs.
If the Grizzlies can hold it together down the stretch, they are live to finish second in the Western Conference for the third time in the last four seasons. Aside from G.G. Jackson (eye abrasion) and Vince Williams Jr. (injury maintenance), the team is healthy. Last night was a tough 114-113 loss to the visiting New York Knicks, who needed an OG Anunoby 3-pointer at the buzzer to secure the victory. That negated the “and-one” play by Morant, which briefly gave Memphis the lead, with 14.1 seconds left in the final frame.
Morant has had only one 50 fantasy point game in his last 22 appearances, but he has a relatively high-floor, flirting with the 40 fantasy point plateau most games. Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are strong plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Depending on the starting lineup, Jaylen Wells and Luke Kennard are potential fantasy point per dollar options, though some crazy Saturday news is likely to knock them down a peg or two by the time the action begins.
San Antonio is running a deep rotation, now that the season is over with Victor Wembanyama out, with only De’Aaron Fox consistently pushing for 30 minutes. That makes things tricky as several players are starting to look appealing with declining salaries, but the volatility is off the charts. Using rookie Stephon Castle as an example, he has logged 25.9, 13.1, 22.3, 11.9 and 29.9 minutes off the bench over the last five games. Caveat Emptor!
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
For those who are less than thrilled about rooting for unders, today we have an over for LaMelo Ball’s 24.5 points prop on BetMGM, where this wager is available at -110.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 4.4% ROI. The combination of today’s variables, along with the -110 odds, results in an festive 4.6% expected value when factoring in the -121 “True Odds.”
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Ball projected for 33.1 minutes and 27.05 points. We can see towards the bottom of the screenshot that half a dozen operators have pushed this to o25.5 with a more punitive line than BetMGM. Furthermore, “sharp” book Pinnacle has the o24.5 at -153, reinforcing the value available at BetMGM.
Ball last stepped on the court five days ago, so he should be fresh. Even though he is expected to see less run than his 32.3 minute season average, this is a terrific matchup against a Washington team that has put forth one of the worst defenses this season, with a dreadful 118.1 points allowed per 100 possessions. Both teams are tanking in unabashed fashion, with the Wizards sitting Jordan Poole tonight.
Charlotte was 3-15 in February, ending the month on a five-game skid. Even more painful for the remaining fans, were the losses by 53 points in Portland, 42 in Sacramento and 36 in Golden State. Tonight would be a great time for a win, after the disastrous nine-game (1-8) road trip.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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