Tuesday has a stellar seven-game slate with a 7:00 p.m. ET lock time on DraftKings and FanDuel. Given the packed slate and pivotal decision points, it’s a great time to spotlight the best NBA DFS building blocks and picks for the day. Let’s break down today’s standout plays, with Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the way at the top of the target list.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Tuesday, Jan. 14
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Nikola Jokic: Nuggets at Mavericks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 62.63 | FanDuel: 60.18
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 21.1% | FanDuel: 4.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,200 | FanDuel: $12,900
Nikola Jokic was on an absolute tear over the last eight games. In this stretch he averaged 37.2 minutes, 33.1 points, 14.9 rebounds, 11.3 assists, and 2.7 combined blocks and steals.
Four — yes, FOUR — of these games saw him go for 80-plus fantasy points. In the prior three meetings with Dallas, Jokic scored 71.3, 73.3 and 60.5 DraftKings points.
Aaron Gordon is back after missing nine games with a strained calf, and indications are that he is going to come off the bench while increasing his workload. It would be a surprise to see him top 24 minutes for the next week or so, with a likely target of 20 to 22 minutes through the weekend. On Sunday, he entered the game at the 4:05 mark during the first quarter, playing just over four minutes into the second quarter. It was a similar story in the third quarter, though he saw two additional minutes in the final frame. His return actually helps Jokic, giving the team another scorer who can convert his passes into assists. Gordon’s minutes will likely come from a combination of Russel Westbrook, Michael Porter Jr. and Christian Braun.
It will be interesting to see if the Nuggets keep Westbrook in the starting lineup once Gordon is back to full strength. That is not an issue for now, and it needs to be pointed out that Jokic has been a major catalyst in maximizing the current skill set of Westbrook. The future Hall of Fame guard has mostly been limiting his 3-point attempts, getting good looks at the rim in transition. The pace of this game will be in his favor tonight, and though it would be a pleasant surprise if he were to push 50 fantasy points like he did in Dallas on Sunday, it will be disappointing if he fails to reach 35 fantasy points.
Kyrie Irving (back) allegedly is getting close to a return, though the last time that was said was 10 days ago and clearly it did not come to fruition. If he is in, then it is a hit to Spencer Dinwiddie, with PJ Washington and Klay Thompson likely to each lose out on a couple field goal attempts. If he remains out, then this trio is in play as tournament differentiation pieces, and Naji Marshall is a decent option regardless of Irving’s availability.
The projection models are pushing Giannis Antetokounmpo, which makes sense for his 10% discount from Jokic, as well as the power forward eligibility. In a twist, Sacramento is actually a tougher matchup for Antetokounmpo than Dallas is for Jokic. The Kings are one of the best rebounding teams in the league, and the defense has been solid over the last 15 games. We are splitting hairs over a pair of players who have each earned multiple MVP awards, but that is what DFS is all about.
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Kevin Durant: Suns at Hawks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 47.09 | FanDuel: 45.98
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 24.8% | FanDuel: 22.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,100 | FanDuel: $9,500
It appears that Jusuf Nurkic has the same illness that was afflicting Jimmy Butler last month, in that both are sick of playing basketball for their current teams. Nurkic, of course, was suspended for an on-court altercation. Upon his return, he played off the bench for two games, then was “hurt” and now is home with an “illness.”
In these eight games, Kevin Durant averaged 37.0 minutes and 18.4 field goal attempts with a stellar 53.1% success rate. This culminated in 26.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.0 combined blocks and steals. This is the metronome-like consistency we have come to expect from Durant, which is impressive, considering he has been in the league for nearly two decades.
Over the last 10 games, Atlanta played at the second-fastest pace and had a bottom-5 defensive efficiency rating. That should keep Durant in the mix for a strong showing tonight, with Devin Booker also standing out. Over the last four games, all with Bradley Beal coming off the bench, Booker averaged 38.5 minutes and 21.5 field goal attempts, converting at a 52.3% clip. This resulted in 30.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 1.5 steals. Considering the team won four of the five games since Beal changed roles, it makes sense that this strategy — and, of course, heavy minutes for KD and Booker — will be how coach Mike Budenholzer proceeds until the next injury.
Atlanta is without Jalen Johnson and Larry Nance Jr., which means more minutes and opportunities for De’Andre Hunter and Zaccharie Risacher. Trae Young is dealing with an illness, and if he is out, then Dyson Daniels will see a significant increase in his facilitation role.
Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu continue to share the pivot role with 6 to 8 minutes in flux each night, depending on effectiveness, foul trouble, etc.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Indications are that Kyrie Irving will be suiting up tonight, which makes the under for his 5.5 made assists prop worthy of our consideration.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 59% of the time. Though with the lofty -121 odds, that leads to a terrific 7.3% expected value when accounting for the -142 “True Odds.”
Sugarhouse, BetRivers and Unibet are currently offering -121, better than the True Odds of -142 and the -145 (or worse) that most other books are offering.
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Irving projected for 33.6 minutes and 4.62 assists, which is well below the six needed for this wager to fail. Across his last 11 games, Irving averaged 3.7 assists. Only twice in this stretch did he top six assists.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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