Monday brings a massive NBA slate with 28 teams in action. The fun tips off at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. This slate is loaded with decision points, making it the perfect opportunity to highlight the top NBA DFS building blocks and best picks of the day. Let’s break down Monday’s core plays, featuring Joel Embiid, Ryan Rollins and other solid value options.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Monday, Dec. 23
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Ryan Rollins: Bucks at Bulls
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 28.31 | FanDuel: 29.32
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 64.6% | FanDuel: 71.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,500 | FanDuel: $3,800
For as many teams that are in action tonight, Ryan Rollins is really shaping up to be terrifying chalk. Yes, he is at a rock-bottom salary, and if he gets another start tonight in place of Damian Lillard (calf), there is a path to 30 minutes of run.
On Saturday, he got a spot start against the Wizards, who, aside from a second quarter meltdown, actually played tough.
Of course, Washington is actively tanking, so even without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee was never really at risk of losing at home once it took the lead for good 13 minutes into the game. Antetokounmpo (back) is questionable, and considering that the Bucks are only favored by a bucket in Chicago, he may not play.
Back to Rollins — even though he started and played nearly 31 minutes, he had only two assists. The 14 points were nice, but if the former Toledo Rocket is not getting blocks and steals, he can easily be a fantasy disappointment. Rollins was a second-round selection in the 2022 NBA Draft, and he spent time in the G-League in his first two stops (Golden State and Washington). He likely would be there now as a two-way player if Milwaukee were not so desperate for bodies. Bobby Portis (8), Khris Middleton (8) and Andre Jackson Jr. (6) all had more assists as starters, while AJ Green (6) topped Rollins off the bench, and Taurean Prince (2) and Gary Trent Jr. (2) tied him in the helper category.
Veteran Delon Wright split the point guard minutes with Rollins, and if Jackson were not limited to 18 minutes by foul trouble, Rollins may have hit the bench had he made any major miscues. He does have a crazy 3.1 steals and 1.1 blocks per 36 minutes for his career, but that is not something we can depend on. That makes Rollins a dicey play; he could easily fall short of 20 fantasy points, or he could collect a handful of stocks and break the hearts of the non-believers.
If Antetokounmpo plays, he is at the top of the median fantasy point projections with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic (questionable, heel). If Giannis is out, then Bobby Portis looks like a strong option again, but do not expect a second consecutive career performance from the soon-to-be 30-year-old. Finally, be wary of Middleton as he is unlikely to play more than 24 minutes with the Bucks trying to protect the oft-injured forward.
UPDATE: Giannis Antetokounmpo has been ruled out.
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Joel Embiid: 76ers vs. Spurs
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 49.31 | FanDuel: 48.78
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 9.3% | FanDuel: 1.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $10,500
If Joel Embiid plays 30 minutes, there is a good chance he will produce 50 fantasy points. He is no longer playing on back-to-backs, and his last game was on Friday, when he dropped 60 fantasy points on the Charlotte Hornets in just 31 minutes.
If Embiid sits in anticipation of the Christmas Day game in Boston, then play Victor Wembanyama, who should operate with impunity in the absence of his Cameroonian counterpart.
The amount of unexpected news is likely to be high tonight with so many teams taking the court. That makes it tricky to identify good plays this far in advance. There are several players we do not want to lose sight of, including Anthony Edwards in Atlanta, Alperen Sengun in Charlotte, Jalen Williams in Washington and Jalen Johnson against Minnesota.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Jordan Poole has a tough matchup tonight against Oklahoma City, which makes the under on his 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop worthy of our attention.
Looking at the screenshot of Portfolio EV, we can see this wager is likely to come to pass 58% of the time and with the -120 odds, this works out to a splendiferous 6.3% expected ROI when factoring in the -138 “True Odds.”
BetMGM and Hard Rock are offering -120, which well exceeds the True Odds of -138 and the -110 odds posted on most other books, which are dropping the PRA threshold down to 27.5.
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Poole projected for 31.1 minutes, 19.78 points, 2.64 rebounds and 4.94 assists for 27.36 PRA. That is below the 29.5 target, and while Poole can always get hot from the field, the Thunder can easily counter with coolers such as SGA, Alex Caruso and Luguentz Dort.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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