Saturday sees the NBA going toe-to-toe with March Madness, serving up a four-game featured-slate tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Jimmy Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyle Kuzma and a deeply discounted Milwaukee backcourt.
These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Saturday, March 22
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Jimmy Butler: Warriors at Hawks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 40.51 | FanDuel: 40.15
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 18.7% | FanDuel: 25.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $8,400
While the salary is not cheap and the fantasy projection is pedestrian, but Stephen Curry is out and we all know that Jimmy Butler has a flair for the dramatic. In the 19 games since Butler has donned a Golden State uniform, the Warriors have won 16 times, with the 35-year-old sitting out one of the three losses.
The Warriors have a one-game lead over both the Clippers and Timberwolves for the sixth-best record in the Western Conference, they are also within 2.5 game of home court in the first round, trailing the Lakers, Nuggets and Grizzlies.
Curry is expected to miss the rest of March with his pelvic/tailbone injury, while Denver, Los Angeles and Memphis are close to having their superstars back with Nikola Jokic, LeBron James and Ja Morant each questionable for their next opportunity. The ‘Dubs are favored by a bucket in Atlanta, getting a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Hawks, who have played at the third-fastest pace over the last 10 games, allowing 117.7 points per 100 possessions, which is a defensive efficiency rating in the bottom-third of the league for this period.
In his last eight games, Butler has a pair of triple-doubles, while averaging 34.3 minutes, 12.5 field goal attempts, 18.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 7.9 assists and 1.9 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals). His superpower remains getting to the charity stripe, which he has done 7.8 times per game in this stretch. That is what enables the NBA vagabond to push towards 20 points per game, despite not taking an inordinate amount of shots.
In his 578 minutes for the Warriors, Butler is averaging 1.17 fantasy points per minute. This increases to nearly 1.3 in the 262 ticks without Curry. Tonight is the first stop of a six-game road trip, which sees Golden State in Miami on Tuesday, followed by games in New Orleans, San Antonio, Memphis and then back to the West Coast, wrapping things up against the Lakers. Most of these matchups are winnable, which is crucial for the ‘Dubs to keep pushing for better playoff seeding.
Per the F-R-E-E Stokastic Starting Lineups page, the expectation is that rookie Quinten Post will be back with the first five, though there is a chance coach Steve Kerr elects to have Draymond Green be the nominal center against Onyeka Okongwu. Either way, the youngster should see low-20s minutes, which makes him a potential punt on both DraftKings ($3,600, 25.2%) and FanDuel ($4,300, 11.4%).
The early projection runs have Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga as the two most popular players on FanDuel, each pushing towards 60% representation in tournaments. Each youngster is working back from injury layoffs, though they should see around 32 and 26 minutes respectively. Both will be picking up some of the scoring slack created by the absence of Curry, with Podziemski also taking on an increased facilitation role.
Green and Moses Moody are most appealing on the blue site, though they have utility on DraftKings, with just four games on the docket. We know that coach Kerr is going to mix and match his malleable rotation, while also keeping an eye on having players fresh for the lengthy road trip.
Trae Young is a luxury option tonight, with his salary pushing towards five figures on the two main DFS sites. Dyson Daniels is shaping up to be the most popular Atlanta option on both DraftKings ($7,000, 20.6%) and FanDuel ($8,000, 18.4%). Since the beginning of February, the former New Orleans Pelican has averaged 34.3 minutes, 15.5 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 0.7 blocks and most impressively three steals a game. That is in line with his league-leading average, which is a whopping 1.2 ahead of the next closest players.
Okongwu’s steadily increasing salary is warranted, particularly with both Clint Capela and Larry Nance Jr. done for the season. That leaves young Dominick Barlow as the main backup center, with starting power forward Mouhamed Gueye and reserve Georges Niang gamely playing out of position when Okongwu is on the sidelines. Veteran Caris LeVert (knee) is expected back after a two-game absence, which will take minutes away from Vit Krejci and Terance Mann.
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Ryan Rollins: Bucks at Kings
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 25.41 | FanDuel: 26.08
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 71.4% | FanDuel: 54.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,800 | FanDuel: $4,800
Attention K-Mart shoppers, Damian Lillard is unavailable, which means Ryan Rollins is the “Blue Light Special” who is available on aisle five. Okay, that reference is for a pretty thin audience, so if you are familiar with this actual marketing gimmick or have ever been to a K-Mart, send Your Ol’ Pal a Tweet with a reminiscence.
Lillard is dealing with a sore calf, so the expectation is that Rollins will be entering the starting lineup in his stead. In nine spot-starts, Rollins has averaged 25.3 minutes with 10.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, half a block and a ridiculous 2.2 steals. Aside from the “stocks” he is replacement-level at best, but the salary and eight-team player pool are pushing him into prominence tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 1.67 fantasy points per minute this season, which barely fluctuates with or without Lillard on the court. Milwaukee has a 3-5 record in the last six games, with two more difficult destinations on the current road trip, with a matchup in Phoenix on Monday and then the final stop in Denver on Wednesday. Antetokounmpo was only needed for 29 minutes on Thursday, as he propelled the Bucks to a 118-89 victory against the Lakers, in a matchup that was missing LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves and Lillard. He should be about as fresh as he can be at this point in the season, so expect him to battle for the top fantasy performance of the night.
Kyle Kuzma was brought in to be a role player extraordinaire at the trade deadline, with the soon to be 30-year-old filling in on the boards, the break and of course being a defensive stopper, allowing Antetokounmpo and Lillard to focus on offense. That
In his first 17 starts for the Bucks, Kuzma averaged only 13.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 0.7 stocks, despite playing 33.4 minutes per game. All but three of these games were without Bobby Portis, who continues to work towards serving his 25-game suspension.
The last two games have been far more fantasy relevant for Kuzma, who has seen 16 field goal attempts in each outing, scoring 20 points in both games, for only the second and third time in his Milwaukee tenure. Circumstances have changed, so it will be interesting to see how the DFS world pivots after six mostly disappointing weeks.
Kevin Porter Jr. is averaging 1.2 fantasy points per minute, though he has been riding off a robust 24.5% usage rate with a stellar 27.8% assist rate, seeing most of his minutes with the second-unit or in mop-up duty. The team seems mostly content with keeping him in this role, however, if Rollins falters, KPJ would likely be the next man up to take the helm of this ship for this skeleton crew.
Depending on your needs and DFS site of choice, Taurean Prince, Brook Lopez and Gary Trent Jr. are potential “last man in” type plays, from Milwaukee.
Sacramento has been treated very differently by the salary algorithms for DraftKings, where only Malik Monk and DeMar DeRozan are pushing for double-digit popularity, where as the expectation for the blue site is that this duo will be on nearly one-in-four tournament rosters, with Zach LaVine, Keegan Murray and Jonas Valanciunas also in the 12%-to-15% range.
Valanciunas is live for a double-double, even if he plays 24-to-26 minutes, with Trey Lyles and Jake LaRavia as potential punts, who should see minutes at the five, with Domantas Sabonis sidelined once again. Sabonis had missed six games, then was back for a game and a half, before reinjuring his hamstring. The rebound king has missed the last two games, which is why the DFS salaries have all been adjusted for his teammates.
Looking at some of the other games: Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart and Miles McBride are all interesting in a great matchup against the Wizards. However, with the Knickerbockers currently 15-point home favorites, it would make sense that someone gets the night off, if coach Tom Thibodeau can bring himself to make that call. New York is 3-3 in the six games without Jaylen Brunson and nearly half of the remaining schedule is against playoff-bound teams. While things are currently rosy, with the team holding a three-game lead against Indiana and a four-game cushion against Milwaukee for the #3 seed, that could change in a hurry if any other overworked player picks up a nagging injury in the next three weeks.
Doncic and Reaves are not on the injury report, plus there is a chance that James returns to action tonight. Depending on what transpires, the final game of the night could bring other DFS options to the forefront. Rui Hachimura is also getting close to a return, after missing significant time, which would make for a crowded frontcourt.
Doncic has averaged 32.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, 8.8 assists and 3.1 stocks in four games without James, while Reaves jumps from 0.93 fantasy points per minute to 1.29 when the G.O.A.T. is off the floor. Giving James another 48 hours of rest until the game in Orlando on Monday would seem like a savvy strategy, if he is close to a return. If he does play, then Doncic has the most appeal of this trio.
Chicago has Tre Jones (foot) listed as questionable, otherwise only Lonzo Ball is expected to be out. If Jones sits, Kevin Huerter would get a boost off the banch, with Josh Giddey and Coby White maintaining strong starting roles. Nikola Vucevic is always an option, though the center position is still crowded, even on this short slate, with Towns, Okongwu, Valanciunas, Post and potentially Tristan Vukcevic, depending on who is available for the tanking Wizards.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
The case has been made above for rostering Jimmy Butler in DFS, but we can also target his under 37.5 points + rebounds + assists prop in the sports wagering world, on BetRivers.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV show that with the combination of today’s matchup variables and the -125 odds, there is a spectacular 6.2% expected value when factoring in the -144 “True Odds” and 2.9% historical ROI.
We can see that sharp book Pinnacle has this wager listed with a u36.5 PRA, while also posting a more punitive line of -148. Most operators are hanging a 36.5 PRA, which makes the BetRivers offer so desirable. Be a savvy shopper!
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Butler projected for 32.8 minutes, 20.92 points, 5.91 rebounds and 6.15 assists for 32.98 PRA. That is well below the 38 needed for this wager to fail, which gives a cushion if Butler ends up playing closer to 36 minutes.
Across his last nine games with the Warriors, Butler has averaged 34.3 minutes, 18.3 points, 7.0 rebounds and 7.4 assists for a 32.7 PRA. This wager is likely to go down to the wire and it is far from comfortable, but the math is definitely on our side.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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