Saturday NBA action takes the form of the NBA Cup semi-finals, with the action locking at 4:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The player pool is packed full of exciting options, making this the ideal slate to spotlight the top NBA DFS building blocks and today’s must-have NBA DFS picks. Let’s dive into the day’s core plays, including Damian Lillard and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander along with others on this eight-game slate.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Saturday, Dec. 14
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Damian Lillard: Bucks vs. Hawks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 46.77 | FanDuel: 44.38
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 41.2% | FanDuel: 50.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $8,700
Giannis Antetokounmpo is dealing with a sore knee, but expected to play tonight. There have been ample words written about the two-time NBA MVP and considering he is leading the league with a career-high 32.7 points per game, there is not much else to add.
Damian Lillard has a slightly better fantasy point per dollar ratio than Antetokounmpo on DraftKings, while on FanDuel it is noticeable with the former Portland Trail Blazer having nearly a 5% edge. That may not seem like much, but that median comparison is pushing Lillard to the fourth best ratio on the blue site, explaining why he is project to be on around half of all rosters.
Lillard has been getting a heavy minutes workload, averaging 39.3 minutes per game over the last trio of tilts, with at least 35.5 minutes in 15 of his 21 games. The diminutive scorer has at least 15 field goal attempts in all but five outings this season, with a wicked 37.2% conversion rate on 9.1 3-pointers per game. The former Weber State star also is contributing 7.6 assists per game, which is his highest rate since the 2019-2020 season. It is not hard to envision getting into a back-and-forth scoring battle with Trae Young, and neither player has the defensive chops to stop the other.
Speaking of Young, he is leading the league with 12.2 assists, which is the most since John Stockton was handing out special delivery packages to Karl “The Mailman” Malone in the mid-90s. Young’s scoring is down, but that is mostly due to career-lows with a 38.8% conversion rate from the field and only 30.8% from long-range. That is far more impactful than him seeing 1.8 fewer field goal attempts per game, as compared to last year.
Jalen Johnson is questionable with a right ankle sprain suffered on Wednesday. He missed last Sunday’s matchup with a shoulder issue, but otherwise the 23-year-old has been a DFS revelation. He is posting personal-highs across the board, increasing his minutes, points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals for a fourth-consecutive season. While he did not have much of an impact in 22 games as a rookie in 2021-2022, he is pushing to be a borderline All-Star this year.
De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic are healthy, which is giving Atlanta a full-rotation. That is also likely to tighten tonight, so this duo off the bench, along with Onyeka Okongwu are likely to be the only reserves getting action. The starters are all fairly priced across the DFS sites, so none of them are standing out over the others. Young and Johnson have the best fantasy point upside, but anyone in this eight-man rotation could outperform their DFS salary with a little luck.
Khris Middleton is seeing around 20 minutes a game and he has been ineffective through three outings this season. He feels like a trap, as he needs to get by on efficiency, which has not been in the cards for the 33-year-old. Milwaukee needs him healthy for the playoffs, so there is no need for coach Glenn Rivers to push him tonight.
Bobby Portis has seen his production and effectiveness all over the place, but this is the type of free-wheeling matchup that suits his skill-set. He is preferable on DraftKings, while being neutral on FanDuel. Gary Trent Jr. is a scoring-dependent reserve, but he can be employed for salary relief. Brook Lopez is a differentiation play at best, though he hasn’t topped 13 fantasy points in the last three games. He did post 27 against the Hawks 10 days ago, but he has more than 30 fantasy points only twice in his last nine games.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Thunder vs. Rockets
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 52.77 | FanDuel: 53.21
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 31.2% | FanDuel: 30.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $11,100
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had to assert himself once again, with Chet Holmgren sidelined and the do-everything guard has not disappointed. In the last 14 games, he is averaging 33.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 6.4 assists and three combined blocks and steals. Two weeks ago he put up 53 fantasy points on the Rockets in Houston, so expect something in that ballpark tonight on his home court.
Jalen Williams has also picked up the slate with Holmgren sidelined, being a trusted second-scorer behind SGA. The fourth-year wing has averaged 23.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.0 assists and three combined blocks and steals over the last 13 games, which is keeping him in the mix for around 40 fantasy points most matchups. Isaiah Hartenstein will be battling Alperen Sengun, with Hartenstein a strong DFS option. When these pivotmen collided at the beginning of December, the former New York Knick cruised to 46 fantasy points in just 30 minutes of run, albeit with five fouls.
Sengun has seen his scoring drop by three points from last year, mostly due to a 10% drop in his shooting efficiency. There still is plenty of fantasy upside, as he has tallied 50-plus fantasy points in eight of his last 15 games.
Dillon Brooks (illness) is questionable, so his availability will directly impact minutes for Tari Eason and Amen Thompson. The trio is neutral if Brooks plays, but if Brooks is out, then Eason and Thompson will be among the best fantasy point per dollar plays on the main DFS sites. Jabari Smith, Jalen Green and Fred VanElite would be the preferred ranking of the remaining starters, with a slight boost to the first two if Brooks is out.
Oklahoma City and Houston are similar in that the respective coaches have plenty of players to mix and match, depending on various scenarios. Cason Wallace is a strong discount play, even with his popularity and he has the “safest” minutes, but is far from locked in. Luguentz Dort rivals SGA as the team’s best on-ball defender, so he is likely to get good run against a myriad of Houston wings. The bench is tricky, though Alex Caruso is finally healthy and he too is a defensive stalwart, that should at least be on the court. After that, things get very thin with Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins and Kenrich Williams each live for between five and 20 minutes.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Trae Young looks like someone to target for the under on his 11.5 assists prop this afternoon.
Looking at the screenshot of Portfolio EV, we can see this wager is likely to come to fruition 58% of the time, and with the -125 odds, this works out to a steady 3.6% expected ROI when factoring in the -135 “True Odds.”
DraftKings is offering the -125 line, which far exceeds the True Odds of -135 and the -142 or worse of most other books.
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Young projected for 37.1 minutes and 11.59 assists, which is right in line with the median line of 11.5. Over the last seven games, Young has 11, 10, 20, seven (against MIL), 15, five and 11 assists. The hope for tonight is that he is calling his own number more frequently, which means fewer assist opportunities. Expect this wager to go down to the wire, though the numbers are in our favor.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Stay ahead of the game with tonight’s NBA action! Tune in to the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 4:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert breakdowns, sharp insights, and everything you need to dominate tonight’s NBA DFS slate!
