Wednesday brings a gigantic featured–slate with a 7:00 p.m. ET tip off on DraftKings and FanDuel. Given the packed slate and pivotal decision points, it’s a great time to spotlight the best NBA DFS building blocks and picks for the day. Let’s break down today’s standout plays, with LaMelo Ball, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Wembanyama leading the way at the top of the target list.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Wednesday, Jan. 15
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
LaMelo Ball: Hornets at Jazz
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 51.11 | FanDuel: 48.21
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 14.6% | FanDuel: 9.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $10,200
LaMelo Ball has had back-to-back amazing games against Phoenix. In these games, he is averaging 37.3 minutes and 26.5 field goal attempts, with 28.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 9.0 assists and four “stocks” (combined steals and blocks).
Tonight, Ball will be going against the Jazz in Salt Lake City. Utah has had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings this season and the team is now actively resting Collin Sexton and Lauri Markkanen, even though the team hasn’t played since Sunday. John Collins and Jordan Clarkson are sort of being protected for trade purposes, though they have minor injuries. Keyonte George (heel) is questionable, so keep tabs on his status.
The Jazz won in overtime on Sunday, and would have won last Tuesday against Atlanta, if not for a halfcourt miracle from Trae Young. Cleary the brass is worried, since the team has three victories in their last six games, and it really should have been four. The NBA, it’s faaaaaaaantastic!
Back to Charlotte, where the Hornets are favored by five points and at this time do not have anyone listed on their injury report, aside from Tre Mann, who has been out since late-November. There should be enough discount dandies popping up with Wednesday’s expanded player pool, making Ball an easily obtained luxury selection. He is currently nestled in the sweet spot, just below the big three superstars of Nikola Jokic (ho-hum just a casual triple-double last night), Victor Wembanyama (55-plus fantasy points in three of his last four against Memphis, with 65 in two games) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (triple-double last night and producing fantasy points at a rate similar to his two MVP seasons). It would be surprising to see Ball’s tournament roster percentage exceed 20% across DFS sites.
Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh an Kyle Filipowski should see additional run with most of the rotation sitting, while Walker Kessler and Mark Williams look like intriguing centers, who will be battling in the paint tonight.
Isaiah Collier will be the primary facilitator for Utah, with a delightful $4,600 on FanDuel. We should not expect another 23 points, seven rebounds and seven assists, but there is a good chance he can produce 30 fantasy points, which would be terrific at his salary on the blue site. DraftKings has slapped a $5,000 tag on his services tonight, making it a bit tougher to justify him there. With more players likely to be ruled out across the league, better fantasy point-per-dollar options are bound to emerge as lineup news breaks.
Update: as I went to submit this article, the Atlanta Hawks ruled out most of their starting lineup. Philadelphia is also sitting out fair number of players, with Tyrese Maxey and Paul George questionable.
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Daniel Gafford: Mavs at Pelicans
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 27.3 | FanDuel: 28.25
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 22.1% | FanDuel: 21.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,300 | FanDuel: $4,500
Daniel Gafford and Derek Lively II are both foul-prone and often injured rim runners who split minutes, but collect lobs, rebounds and plenty of defensive stats.
Lively was injured last night and is not available. That should lead to Gafford starting. Do not let the 19 minutes of run concern you, Naji Marshal was the only starter to play in the fourth quarter last night.
The equally brittle Maximilian Kleber and Dwight Powell will be backing up Gafford, who doesn’t have to worry about fouling Zion Williamson (rest). There is some opportunity cost in going with Gafford on FanDuel, since it will be at the expense of Jokic, but with Antetokounmpo eligible at the power forward slot, it is not the end of the world.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Josh Giddey is an interesting option in the sports wagering market for the under on his 9.5 rebounds prop .
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 61% of the time. That combined with the solid -135 odds, leads to a terrific 6.0% expected value when accounting for the -156 “True Odds.”
BetMGM is currently offering -135, which presents solid value compared to the “True Odds” of -156. Most other books have lowered the line to 8.5 rebounds, though they’re still posting odds between -120 and -125 or worse.
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Giddey projected for 27.9 minutes and 7.52 rebounds, which is well below the 10 needed for this wager to fail. Giddey has been racking up double-digit results, with six in his last nine games, but that feels like a high number to continue. Yes, Atlanta is without half of the rotation, but consistently corralling 10 or more caroms is a tall order for a non-center.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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