Wednesday marks the middle of the work week, with NBA action getting underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Each site is handling the player pool differently, so this article will focus on games appearing across the board when looking a the best NBA DFS building blocks and picks for the day. Let’s break down Wednesday’s top options, with LaMelo Ball, Cade Cunningham and Trae Young dominating the conversation.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Wednesday, Jan. 22
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
LaMelo Ball:
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 54.27 | FanDuel: 51.09
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 21.3% | FanDuel: 28.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $10,200
The Memphis defensive efficiency rating has improved as most of the regulars are now available, however, the team still plays fast and that improved defense, well it only a little better than league average over the last 10 games.
LaMelo Ball (ankle/wrist) missed three games around the holidays, but he is getting serious minutes and volume.
Across the last five games, Ball is averaging 36.7 minutes, with 26.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 9.0 assists and 3.0 combined blocks and steals. The silver lining is the potential upside if he is able to put the biscuit in the basket. In this span, he is averaging 22.8 field goal attempts with a 41.2% conversion rate, while hitting on only 29.5% of 12.2 3-point attempts. He has 50-plus fantasy points in four of these five games, including one with 66 fantasy points, when his shot was falling.
Mark Williams is healthy and now the Hornets are letting him approach 30 minutes per game. In his last eight appearances, he has tallied 18.1 points, 12.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.4 combined blocks and steals. There were a couple of duds in there, which has helped keep his salary from exploding, but expect to see him with a 20% increase by this time next week if he keeps things rolling. He is the opposite of Ball, getting 62.0% of his 11.5 shots do fall in this stretch. Most of his best work is done in the paint and at this point, he is clearly better than rookie Zach Edey who will be tasked with trying to slow him down.
If Nick Smith Jr. remains in the starting lineup, filling in for fellow NBA sophomore Brandon Miller, he will be the punt du jour on DraftKings ($3,200, 45.1%), though he is not as exciting on FanDuel ($4,100, 10.4%). Smith’s fantasy production is heavily driven by scoring, so if he hits his averages of 17.0 points 4.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 1.0 steals, he will be a neutral option on FanDuel and a steal on DraftKings. He has converted on over half his field goal attempts, with most coming from long range. If he is off the mark tonight, he could torpedo lineups with a 10-to-12 fantasy point dud. Caveat Emptor.
Mile Bridges is the better Charlotte option on FanDuel ($7,400, 25.5%), losing favor on DraftKings ($7,600, 14.7%). After missing half of November and December, he has been solid in his most recent 15 games. In this stretch, he has compiled 20.5 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.4 combined blocks and steals, in 32.5 minutes per game.
Memphis is favored by 11.5 points at home, with a 125.5 team total, that is above the Grizzlies league-leading 123.1 points per game average. Desmond Bane is the best fantasy point per dollar play from the home team on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with Santi Aldama a secondary target on the former site and Jaren Jackson Jr. seeing the blue site bump, with blocks and steals each worth three fantasy points.
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Cade Cunningham:
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 50.11 | FanDuel: 47.06
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 25.7% | FanDuel: 22.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $10,000
For those looking to escape the popularity of Ball, Cade Cunningham is likely to be on half as many lineups, with a slightly elevated salary leading to different roster combinations.
After winning just 22% of their games over the last three seasons, the Pistons are sitting one game above .500 (22-21) and no longer in tanking mode.
Injuries and strategic losses were beginning to worry the Motown faithful, but Cunningham has been sublime this season and worthy of the five-figure salary cap hit. He is posting career numbers across the board with 24.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and nearly two “stocks” per game. He also is second in the league with 9.3 assists per appearance, trailing only tonight’s counterpart Trae Young (11.7).
Last Wednesday, Atlanta beat the Bulls in Chicago, 110-94, marking the first time this season an opponent has failed to reach 100 points against the Hawks. This is a winnable game for both teams, with Atlanta favored by a bucket on their home court. That should lead to fireworks and a fun back-and-fourth by two of the best offensive playmakers in the league, who are not afraid to call their own number. A variety of injuries to key Atlanta contributors have led to Young scoring more over the last nine games, leading to about six more points than his season average at the expense of 1.5 assists. That is a positive DFS tradeoff.
Tobias Harris and Onyeka Okongwu look good across the main DFS sites, while Jalen Duren looks good on DraftKings, with Ausar Thompson and Jalen Johnson (if healthy) getting the bump on FanDuel.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
James Harden is an intriguing option in the sports wagering market for the under on his 7.5 assists prop, in a tough matchup against the Boston Celtics.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 57% of the time. That combined with the -120 odds leads to a favorable 4.9% expected value when accounting for the -134 “True Odds.”
HardRock is currently offering -120, which presents solid value compared to the “True Odds” of -134. Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Harden projected for 30.7 minutes and 6.81 assists. Looking at his recent game logs, we can see he has dished out double-digit dimes in five of his last eight games, but those were against average to dreadful defenses, save for the Timberwolves, with The Beard notching eight helpers in Minnesota.
Boston has a top-five defense and we are hoping that they stifle the Clippers tonight. Even with his recent flurry of assists, Harden is averaging only 7.2 across his last 18 games, which is just above the threshold needed for this wager to be successful. This is likely to go down to the wire, but the math is in our favor.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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