Wednesday marks the start of a new year, with NBA DFS tournaments locking at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. This slate is packed with key decision points, making it the perfect time to spotlight the top NBA DFS building blocks and picks of the day. Let’s break down Wednesday’s plays, with Goga Bitadze a potential flag-planting option and diverging paths on DraftKings and FanDuel given the vastly differing player pools.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Wednesday, Jan. 1
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Goga Bitadze: Magic at Pistons
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 36.48 | FanDuel: 37.92
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 19.7% | FanDuel: 39.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $7,000
It will be fun to see how many players end up on the injury report with “flu-like symptoms” after New Year’s Eve. There are already plenty of shenanigans going on with the various rest protocols for key players, so here is a catalyst that could impact the availability of every player.
That means we will see plenty of shifting lineups leading up to the initial tipoff tonight, and Goga Bitadze may get lost in the shuffle.
Most gamers are going to look at Bitadze’s salary and move on, though it is important to note that he has more than earned this increase. Over his last dozen games, he tallied 40-plus fantasy points on six occasions and 30 or more 10 times. In this timeframe, he averaged 29.1 minutes and 8.3 field goal attempts with a wicked 64% conversion rate. He also is pulling down 11 boards, handing out 2.6 helpers, and collecting 2.9 combined blocks and steals.
Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero are out, so we are seeing Wendell Carter Jr. and Bitadze both with the first five. Moritz Wagner is out for the season, which further weakens the Orlando frontcourt depth. Tonight is a winnable game in Detroit, though the Magic are only favored by a bucket.
DraftKings is skipping the final two games of the night, which takes Nikola Jokic and Andre Drummond out of play. Bitadze is a safer option than the other center plays, such as rookie Alexandre Sarr ($5,800, 4.8%), Nicolas Claxton ($6,200, 34.4%), Daniel Gafford ($5,400, 22.2%) and Noah Clowney ($4,900, 18.7%).
On FanDuel, it is not going to feel comfortable going away from Jokic, whose median projection is 20 fantasy points higher than every other player taking the court. However, Bitadze has a better fantasy point-per-dollar ratio, and you can employ the $5,800 salary cap savings in ways that offset the raw point discrepancy.
Another center to keep in mind on both sites is Karl-Anthony Towns. Jalen Brunson is dealing with a sore calf, and the Knicks should be able to easily dispatch the visiting Utah Jazz without him. Towns had 50-plus fantasy points in eight of his last 11 games, cresting over 60 fantasy points three times. Josh Hart and O.G. Anunoby would also look good in this matchup in the event Brunson gets the night off. If Brunson plays, he is the most appealing Knickerbocker on DraftKings.
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D’Angelo Russell: Nets at Raptors
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 29.65 | FanDuel: 28.23
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 47.1% | FanDuel: 6.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,100 | FanDuel: $6,100
D’Angelo Russell is expected to play tonight for Brooklyn. Regardless of whether he starts or serves as the sixth man, he should see around 28 minutes of run, with a couple more attainable if he is with the first five.
This is a DraftKings-only play, with far better options on FanDuel. Russell should be able to produce around a fantasy point per minute, and there is a decent chance he will be showcased for a future trade.
For those playing on FanDuel, Paul George ($7,500, 49.7%) and Caleb Martin ($4,700, 39.2%) are strong point-per-dollar plays. It is expected that Joel Embiid will sit tonight and play tomorrow in Golden State. This season, George is averaging just under a fantasy point per minute when sharing the court with Embiid and 1.15 without him. Tyrese Maxey will still be the lead offensive option, but George should be right there with him in a game with a decent 223.5 total.
Kelly Oubre Jr. ($5,700, 9.1%) gets a slight boost in his production without Embiid, but his salary is not as enticing as Martin’s tonight. Malik Monk ($6,500, 37.1%) is the best Sacramento option on FanDuel, with DeMar DeRozan ($7,100, 18.3%) a secondary play. Keegan Murray (ankle) is doubtful, opening up some wing minutes for his two aforementioned compatriots.
These players, along with Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox, all make for a fun two-game late slate on DraftKings, and Guerschon Yabusele provides salary relief. If Drummond (toe) is out, then Yabusele is going to be one of the best fantasy point-per-dollar options on in the nightcap game.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
PJ Washington was magnificent on Monday for the shorthanded Mavericks, netting a season-high 28 points. However, there are different variables in play tonight against Houston, which make the under on his 13.5 points prop worthy of our attention.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to come to fruition 55% of the time. With the -102 odds, this results in an enticing 8.6% expected value when accounting for the -122 “True Odds.”
FanDuel is offering -102, which exceeds the True Odds of -122, and the other books are offering -110 or worse while also dropping the line down to 12.5 points.
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Washington projected for 34.6 minutes and 13.09 points, which is a tick under the 13.5 and reasonably under the 14-point mark, which is significant since there is no fractional scoring in the NBA.
When Washington dropped in 28 points on Monday, both Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson were out with injuries. He also was 8-for-10 from the line, which is an anomaly given he had a scant eight attempts at the charity stripe in his six preceding games. In his 11 games since Dec. 1, Washington tallied 14 points twice, 18 once and, of course, Monday’s masterpiece. He had 13 or fewer points in the other seven games. This wager is likely to go down to the wire, but the tough defense of Houston and the return of Irving and Thompson are working against Washington. This, of course, is all factored into the math, but sometimes it helps to understand the different variables at play.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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