NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Elimination is on the Line! (April 26)

Saturday brings a four-game featured slate, with all-day action beginning at 1:00 p.m. ET lon FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks: Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and the remaining Grizzlies have their work cut out for them. There are lots of injury question marks with Denver and Golden State, which are the two later games. Nikola Jokic and Stephen Curry are core plays, though it is hard to know how the rest of their teammates will shape up for DFS purposes.

These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Saturday, April 26

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

Cleveland chose to not heed the calls from various pundits and talking heads, to trade the combo guard, which was fortuitous since The Land enjoyed his sixth-consecutive All-Star appearance, while also having Evan Mobley and Darius Garland make their debuts in the mid-season exhibition as well.

The team had the second-best record (61-18) in the league, trailing Oklahoma City by four games and leading Boston by a trio of tilts. Mobley was just named the Defensive Player of the Year and he is a strong DFS option in all formats today for differentiation. The only “hidden cost” is that this is the first game and there are other uncertain situations later, which could be more fruitful. Savvy gamers will be attracted to these variables keeping Mitchell’s popularity in single-digits, considering the close projected matchup, with Miami going for the gusto at home.

Garland is questionable, dealing with a sprained left big toe. He also made some antagonistic comments in an interview, directed to Tyler Herro, who was not thrilled. There is no need to really push Garland with a 2-0 series lead, but he may not want to sit with the brewing kerfuffle. In the event he is sits, then expect Mitchell’s tournament representation to double from the current projection level.

Jarrett Allen is always a solid center option, but he really needs to have a good offensive game to break through and be a true difference maker in the center-only category. He is always live for the double-double bonus on DraftKings, though blocks and steals are harder to come by in the playoffs.

If Garland is out, then Ty Jerome will likely return to prominence. We should not expect another Game 1 performance, when he was 10-of-15 from the field and 5-of-8 from beyond the arc, pouring in 28 points in just 26 minutes. Though a start is on the table and that means mostly secure minutes in the upper-20s, with low-30s in attainable.

Otherwise, for overall playing time, Jerome is still battling Sam Merrill and usual starter Max Strus. Any of this trio could supersede the others with a hot hand. Attaining their potential overall upside would be easier, if they are filling minutes vacated by Garland.

Luckily, this is the first game on the docket, so tune into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 12:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for all of the up-to-date analysis and DFS strategies.

Miami is pretty much a two-man show these days, with Herro and Bam Adebayo being the primary offensive options. Davion Mitchell has actually been able to score since coming over to the Heat from Toronto, with 12.9 points per game in his last 12 games with 30-plus minutes to wind down the season. That is not a lot, but more than his 7.6 point career average, which was buoyed by his rookie season (11.5) for a bad Sacramento squad. It looks like the Gabe Vincent/Strus role is his, with better defense and more consolidated minutes over the last iteration of the Heat. He moved into the starting lineup in Game 2, over Alec Burks, who was banished to the shadow realm, without seeing the court.

Andrew Wiggins is in the mix, but we know he is not a dominant scorer. In his regular season games with Miami, he averaged 19 points per game, which would have been his best full-year mark, since the 2020 pandemic season, that saw him dealt from Minnesota to Golden State. He has only 24 points so far this series and actually was benched for Haywood Highsmith from the 5:37 mark in the third period, for the remainder of the game. That was off a 38.1 minute workload in the opener and we know coach Erick Spoelstra is not shy about shaking things up.

Rounding out the first five, rookie Kel’el Ware will be hard pressed to get more than the 19 or so minutes he has seen in the first two matchups, since he won’t be in the closing lineup due to a lack of offense.

Nikola Jovic had 24.6 minutes off the bench in Game 2, hardly playing in the series opener after returning from an injury layoff. Kyle Anderson was a DNP-CD in the second game, though in Saturday’s kitchen sink effort, he may end up being relevant over rookie Pelle Larrson, or heck, it could be Jaime Jaquez who gets dusted off.

Likely it will remain Jovic, who is the better scorer of this quartet, chasing uncertain value plays on the first game an all-day slate is not a savvy move.

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Luke Kennard and Santi Aldama will also need to step up to fill the void created by the absence of Morant, with John Konchar chipping in. Oklahoma City dominated the first two games of the series, winning by 51 and 19 points. On Thursday night, the Thunder erased a 24-point deficit after Morant left the game, scoring the final eight points of the fourth quarter, completing a 114-108 comeback.

Rookie Zach Edey should get minutes as he provides help on the glass and a defensive presence. We should be less worried about his run, even with Morant out and less pick-and-roll situations in the forecast. Edey can help with the dirty work in the paint, freeing up Jackson, plus he probably gets mop-up duty in what is the likely the last game of the season for the Grizzlies.

Kennard is likely to be on nearly 75% of all DraftKings lineups, with Pippen getting the same level of love on FanDuel. The rest of the starters vary from 20%-to-40% on the big DFS sites, with Konchar the differentiation option at sub-5% across the board.

We have already seen the OKC starters get relaxed minutes, as the Thunder are a viable title contender and this series has been all but over since the jump. Getting fourth quarter run from the likes of Shai Gilegeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and even Isaiah Hartenstein is unlikely and third quarter minutes could be light, if Memphis is unable to mount any sort of offensive effort against this incredibly elite defense, that is accompanied by a hard to stop offense.

Isaiah Joe, Jaylin Williams, Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace are the reserves most likely to see 20 minutes, if the game is settled early. Alex Caruso has showed why the team traded Josh Giddey and the oft-injured two-time All-NBA Defensive team honoree is likely to be on the bench early.

Michael Porter Jr. played 35 minutes, though it seemed like his left shoulder injury from Game 2 was REALLY impacting his offense, even though he is right-handed. He made only 2-of-9 shots, and 1-of-6 from 3-point range. This duo is questionable, which makes most of this information speculative. The starters were all pulled with 5:33 left in the game, to preserve a little energy ahead of the 36ish hour turn around time, though the probably should have been replaced prior to that surrender.

This included Porter, so the one-armed-man is probably going to start again, but Jalen Pickett, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther could all get increased run, with various iterations of the lineup, without Porter and Westbrook.

Nikola Jokic was the entire team, with a 23-13-13 triple-double in 37 minutes. If the game is close, he will get his rest at the start of the second quarter and maybe the fourth, but 40 minutes is in play.

Jamal Murray played just over 36 minutes, matching Jokic with 23 points. Even though he is still at risk of reaggravating his hamstring issue that has plagued him this season, expect him to get as much run as he can handle. Christian Braun led the team with 38 minutes, so it is hard to go up from there, but he could get some of Porter’s field goal attempts if the one-armed-bandit is out or limited.

Aaron Gordon was replaced by Watson, about four minutes ahead of the other starters hitting the pine. After the game there were rumors that Gordon was having trouble jumping/getting lift, but he is not listed on the “unofficial” official NBA injury report as of this morning. Yet another TBD variable.

James Harden has been solid in the playoffs, after carrying the team through injuries to Kawhi Leonard and Norman Powell during the regular season. Leonard has been stellar, regularly playing 38-plus minutes to help get the Clippers into the playoffs and it is clear the team smells blood in the water.

In the early run of the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool, Powell is the most positively leveraged play on the main DFS sites. This means he is underrepresented in tournaments when compared to his realistically attainable upside. He has attempted 12, 14 and 12 shots in the series so far, sinking 7-of-18 from behind the arc. His inconsistent peripherals and relatively sedate DFS production has helped push his salary into the low-$5,000s, making him a fun discount dandy, who has close to a one-third probability of reaching his mid-30s fantasy point “boom” threshold. Salaries are a thing in DFS and we have to understand the nuance and preconceived notions, against cold hard facts and data.

Ivica Zubac has been the real hero and while he hasn’t stopped his opposing counterpart who is a three-time NBA MVP, he at least is taking the brunt of the effort, letting the team use Ben Simmons and Nic Batum as the nominal centers in short bursts, while he is on the bench. He has averaged nearly 19 points, 11.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and a stock per game, which is great considering how much energy he is expended on the defensive end of the floor.

Kris Dunn typically has three guaranteed rotations, starting the game, coming in midway through the second period and then starting the second half. The fourth quarter run depends on matchup and game situation, with head coach Tyronn Lue also employing Simmons, Batum, Derrick Jones Jr. and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Simmons is an offensive zero, but good defender and Bogdanovic is the opposite. Looking at the three games in this series, Batum and Jones have started the final frame, alongside Leonard. Bogdanovic joined them twice, while Zubac got the nod once. This information doesn’t really come into play on the featured slate, since Dunn and the reserves are just discounted differentiation, though for late-swap purposes and for the separate the two-two tilt evening game-set, it is important to have this information readily available in our back pocket.

Michael Porter Jr. played 35 minutes, though it seemed like his left shoulder injury from Game 2 was REALLY impacting his offense, even though he is right-handed. He made only 2-of-9 shots, and 1-of-6 from 3-point range. This duo is questionable, which makes most of this information speculative. The starters were all pulled with 5:33 left tin the game, to preserve a little energy ahead of the 36ish hour turn around time, though it probably should have been sooner.

Brandin Podziemski tried to play through his surprise illness (potentially food poisoning or flu), but he looked depleted on the bench and missed all five of his field goal attempts Wednesday, logging 14 ineffective minutes. The time off to recover should have him mostly back to a normal role, though that is an educated guess. Gary Payton II has a strained right shoulder, so he is also on the injury report. He did try to play through it after falling on a no-call in the first quarter, playing the last couple minutes of the first half and then starting the second half, with Quinten Post as the Podziemski and Butler replacements.

The If/Thens are many, other than we know Stephen Curry and Draymond Green will be leading the way. Jonathan Kuminga, Post and Pat Spencer (who?!) started the second period, with Kuminga playing nearly the full quarter and 26.1 total minutes. He would likely need Butler to be out to be of relevance. Spencer is a soon-to=-be 29-year-old undrafted point guard, who has 45 games with the ‘Dubs over the last two regular seasons. With Podziemski feeling better, Spencer is unlikely to be seen outside of mop-up duty.

Moses Moody at least is on the court, but he defers to all of the other starters on offense and scoring is his main fantasy asset. Post and Buddy Hield will at least get minutes in the low-teens, with Kevon Looney and Gui Stantos best left for those playing the single-slate contests and crafting more than 25 entries.

The above preceding to paragraphs change dramatically if But(t)ler is out or ineffective, though only slightly if Payton is misses tonight’s game.

Houston is using an eight-man rotation, so aside from in-game injury or foul trouble, we know the likely roles of the first five. Alperen Sengun is an excellent option, even on FanDuel, where he costs his backers the center position. Amen Thompson and Jalen Green are next, with Green coming off a tremendous 38 point game, after a dreadful 3-of-15, seven point performance in the series opener. Thompson gets his fantasy production in a myriad of ways, giving him a great floor with upside available across the box score.

Fred VanVleet conducts the offense and harasses opposing point guards, but he only makes DFS appearances when his 3-point shot is falling and he is very streaky. In this series he has 3-for-20 from beyond the arc, though as a 37.1% career marksman, some positive regression is coming … right?!

Dillon Brooks is a scrapper and in play, though he has to hold off the likes of Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. This trio should each see 20-to-22 minutes as a floor, with another half dozen readily available for each, depending on coach Ime Udoka’s preference. Steven Adams is a punt on DraftKings and in the single-game format, but he is out there for rebounding and bruising defense. He converted 3-of-4 field goal attempts in the first game, but did not have a shot in the second. Your mileage may vary.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV steps in.

Take Jimmy Butler under 34.5 points+rebounds+assists (PRA) tonight for example. It’s a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value when compared to the best odds available across the market. But the real strength of Portfolio EV isn’t about finding just one good bet — it’s about consistently finding dozens. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale up, place a high volume of +EV bets, and let the math do the heavy lifting.

Just like you wouldn’t count on one DFS lineup to ship a GPP, you don’t count on one bet to carry your night.

Portfolio EV is built for long-term profitability. It helps you spot market inefficiencies, compare lines across books and generate a steady stream of +EV bets. It doesn’t chase heaters, but rather trusts the numbers, follows a process and builds sustainable profit over time.

This all comes down to the health and treatment over the last couple days for Butler’s deeply bruised glute. Even with 37-to-38 projected minutes, he still rates out with a 33.41 PRA. Efficiency will get him there, though the downside risk weighs out in favor of this under.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Tune into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 12:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate tonight’s NBA DFS slate!