Saturday has a delightful NBA docket, with the DFS action getting underway at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. With the dynamics of the NBA season, we’re diving into the top NBA DFS picks today, as well as our building blocks. Let’s break down the best options for Saturday’s slate like Dyson Daniels as a strong fantasy point per dollar option, along with several of his teammates and the hosting Washington Wizards, led by Jordan Poole.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Saturday, Feb. 8
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Dyson Daniels: Hawks at Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 38.58 | FanDuel: 40.07
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 23.4% | FanDuel: 19.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,100 | FanDuel: $8,000
Shout out to the Washington Wizards, who had won three consecutive games, prior to Friday’s 134-124 loss to the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers. This included sneaking one by the Timberwolves in Minnesota, though the home team was without Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, with Naz Reid hurting his hand during the game. Since that moment, the Washington front office has pretty much traded any asset that was not nailed down, creating a fantasy friendly matchup for all opponents.
Even with this semi-heater, which ended the team’s second 16-game losing streak of the season, the Wizards still have a three-game lead on the rest of the “tankapolooza” crew. Even if this ragtag group accidently wins a few games, there is still a cushion in the race for the most ping pong balls in the upcoming lottery. Keep in mind that for the last several years, the three worst teams all receive the same odds of landing the top pick, but that is still lost on a lot of fans.
Kyle Kuzma, Jonas Valanciunas, Jared Butler, Johnny Davis, Marvin Bagley III and Patrick Baldwin Jr. were are traded away, with Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart being the key pieces joining Washington. Middleton may play, though keep in mind he is likely on a 27-to-30 minute cap as the oft-injured 33-year-old had offseason surgery on both ankles. Smart played 18.1 minutes in his final game for Memphis, after a 21-game layoff for a finger injury. He will celebrate his 31st birthday in less than a month. The former sixth-overall selection in the 2014 NBA Draft has one more year on his contract, so it would not be a surprise if Washington looks to spruce up his trade value for the offseason or even next year. He came over in a salary dump by Memphis, accompanied by a first-round pick.
Malcolm Brogdon (plantar fasciitis) is doubtful, with the team monitoring his playing time. It was a surprise that nobody went after the veteran, who could have been had for a second-rounder. Rookie Alexandre Sarr (ankle) has missed the last six games and last night Anthony Gill sprained his right ankle. But wait … there’s more … Justin Champagnie (illness) is questionable and Alex Len may be available, having landed in our nation’s capital for a second-stint with the Wiz.
So where is the good news? Well, Jordan Poole had himself a party last night, dropping a career-high 45 points on Cleveland. He should continue to get as many shots as he likes, which has him live for 20 attempts anytime he takes the court for the remainder of the season.
Richaun Holmes was dusted off, joining the first five, posting a 12-12 double-double, if he reprises his role tonight, he is in play as a tertiary punt. Youngsters Carlton Carrington III (36 minutes), Bilal Coulibaly (42) and Kyshawn George (35) all saw heavy minutes in starting roles and while that is not likely to be a regular occurrence, the team is looking to develop this trio as part of the go-forward rebuild. Pencil them in for 27-28 minutes on the back-to-back, with a few more minutes being readily obtainable if Washington has a chance to win in front of the home crowd.
Corey Kispert is a viable option off the bench, though he is not necessary tonight in the DFS world, unless other players are out. Similarly Tristan Vukcevic is a discount dandy, though he is likely a placeholder which can be swapped out when more injury reports are released throughout the day.
Atlanta also made some moves, sending out De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic, with Caris LeVert, Georges Niang and Terance Mann part of the return haul. Trae Young (Achilles) is questionable, but he has answered the bell for the last six games, including nearly 35 minutes last night, while also closing out the fourth quarter, securing a 115-110 victory against the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. Clint Capela (six games, trade candidate/personal) did not play, but he was on the bench in street clothes.
Dyson Daniels is the primary target for Atlanta, even coming off Friday’s 38 minute effort. He will be wildly popular if Young happens to miss this game, though he could be lost in the shuffle a bit when gamers get enough value options to unlock the preferred stars and scrubs build. Onyeka Okongwu looks to be the starter over Capela going forward and while they are still sharing the center position, this gives Okongwu the edge for 27-29 minutes most nights.
It would not be a surprise to see veteran Larry Nance Jr. sit on the back-to-back, though if Capela is back and Niang available, he is not really a consideration going forward.
Currently on DraftKings seven of the 10 most popular players are coming from this game. That figure drops to three of the top eight on FanDuel, with the blue site including the last two games on the docket for their featured tournaments.
Considering there are so many moving parts for this early locking game, tonight the best information can be found on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube.
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Naz Reid: Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 35.13 | FanDuel: 34.27
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 20.9% | FanDuel: 6.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,700 | FanDuel: $7,300
Reid is in play on FanDuel, but he is likely to be twice as popular on DraftKings. With four more teams in the player pool, FanDuel has other mid-range options as pivots, including Kawhi Leonard, Zach LaVine, Malik Monk, Norman Powell, Yves Missi and Ivica Zubac to name just a few.
Last Saturday, Reid broke hearts and bankrolls, with just 12.5 fantasy points in 19 minutes after hurting his thumb in-game.
In the three subsequent games, Reid has made forays into the 40 fantasy point plateau, averaging 37.2 minutes and 18.0 field goal attempts, with a 48.1% conversion rate. This has resulted in 22.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 3.0 combined blocks and steals. Tonight is a back-to-back for the Spurs, who are allowed 120.5 points per 100 possessions over the last 10 games, which is the third-worst defensive efficiency rating in the league during this timeframe.
Anthony Edwards is in the zone, dropping 90 points in the last two games, including 41 on Thursday against a good Houston defense. San Antonio is not equipped to deal with him and as long as his hip issue is minor, he is a terrific tournament target. Southpaw Mike Conley is dealing with a sprained index finger on his non-shooting hand, but if he is out, that opens up more backcourt minutes, with Donte DiVincenzo out through the All-Star Break. Julius Randle remains out as well, which has allowed Jaden McDaniels to average 14.5 field goal attempts in each of the last four games. This gives him a strong baseline, considering this is well above his 9.3 field goal attempts per game this season, which was already a career-high. This allows his proclivity for the hustle stats (rebounds, steals and blocks) to serve as his access point for upside potential.
Victor Wembanyama played 33.6 minutes last night, so hopefully he is good to go tonight in a matchup with fellow Frenchman Rudy Gobert. The budding superstar has five games of 50-plus fantasy points, in his seven matchups against the Stiffle Tower. De’Aaron Fox landed on his team of choice at the trade deadline, though he is likely to deal with a combination of Edwards and McDaniels, somewhat curbing his overall appeal.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Mark Williams is someone to target tonight, for the under on his 3.5 assists prop against Indiana tonight.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 59% of the time. That combined with the -125 odds on DraftKings leads to a spectacular 6.4% expected value when accounting for the -145 “True Odds.”
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Williams projected for 27.1 minutes and 2.95 assists. In his last 16 games, with at least 22 minutes, the former Charlotte Hornet is averaging 29.5 minutes and 2.83 assists.
Assuming he clears trade protocols, he is expected to suit up tonight for the Lakers. LeBron James (ankle) is doubtful and Austin Reaves (elbow) questionable, with Luka Doncic not ready to return to action. There is a chance the team elects to hold Williams out tonight until the regulars are ready, or they could ease him into the mix with a lighter workload. We can see that the DraftKings -125 is well above the market, including the ridiculous -160 on Bet ESPN and -179 on ReBet.
