Wednesday brings a nifty nine-game featured-slate with a 7:00 p.m. ET lock time on FanDuel and DraftKings. With so many variables at play as the NBA season progresses, today’s focus is identifying the best NBA DFS building blocks and top picks. Let’s break down Wednesday’s options like Domantas Sabonis against the 76ers understudies, with Nikola Jokic standing out. This can be a one-two combo, with all of the available value tonight.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Wednesday, Jan. 29
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Domantas Sabonis: Kings at 76ers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 52.27 | FanDuel: 48.93
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 15.1% | FanDuel: 8.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,900 | FanDuel: $10,600
Ho-Hum, the Rebound King is back atop the standings for a third consecutive season. Currently Domantas Sabonis is averaging a personal best 14.6 rebounds, while also putting up a career-high 21.0 points, aided by the additional floor spacing provided by DeMar DeRozan over Harrison Barnes and the blossoming of Malik Monk into an all-around threat.
Sabonis has three straight 60-plus fantasy point performances, with six in his last 10 games. Over this stretch, he is averaging 38.7 minutes and 13.6 field goal attempts, with a sublime 64.7% success rate. This has manifested in 22.6 points, 17.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 0.8 combined blocks and steals. His salary is in the sweet-spot and it would be a surprise to see him on more than one-in-five rosters tonight. Philadelphia is down three starters in Joel Embiid, Paul George and Caleb Martin, with reserve Andre Drummond (toe) out as well. That leaves Guerschon Yabusele to man the frontcourt, which is not too much of a deterrent. Sabonis should own the glass and his ability to contribute across the box score make him a candidate to lead teams to DFS glory, any time he is on the slate.
Tyrese Maxey propelled the 76ers to an upset victory against the visiting Los Angeles Lakers last night, aided by an injury to Anthony Davis. That gives Maxy a fifth-consecutive 50 fantasy point game, with seven in his last 10. Kelly Oubre Jr. is an option tonight as well, with his wide array of outcomes being desirable for tournaments.
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Nikola Jokic: Nuggets at Knicks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 64.28 | FanDuel: 62.02
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 16.4% | FanDuel: 7.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,300 | FanDuel: $12,900
Even if the projected popularity doubles for Nikola Jokic on DraftKings and triples on FanDuel, he is a core option. There are 18 teams in the player pool, though the reigning and three-time NBA MVP has a median fantasy point projection 12 higher then anyone on DraftKings and he has a 10 point cushion on FanDuel.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama, Sabonis and Maxey round out the top five, albeit in slightly different order between the main DFS sites. There are injury and rest situations everywhere, which will contribute plenty of discount dandies and players with fantasy point per dollar ratios that are desirable for DFS.
Cleveland is without Darius Garland, so Ty Jerome should be the potential starter and at least the recipient of additional minutes, with Donovan Mitchell also getting a usage bump, with a 10% boost to his per minute fantasy production.
The Hornets are hosting the Brooklyn Nets in Charlotte tonight, and while this game has a paltry 205.5 point total, both sides are running shorthanded. The Nets are tanking and will also be without Noah Clowney, Cameron Johnson, Cam Thomas. This creates opportunities for D’Angelo Russell, Ziaire Williams and Nicolas Claxton, plus Ben Simmons and Trendon Watford are off the injury report.
LaMelo Ball, Josh Green, Mark Williams and Cody Martin will miss Wednesday’s action, which is pretty much half a rotation that needs to be replaced. Miles Bridges, Josh Okogie, Moussa Diabate, Nick Smith, and Vasilije Micic are all seeing extra attention, though Micic is the first person to cross off the list as better options are revealed. Smith is the next casualty, though the first three are safe.
Gradey Dick is dealing with an illness, so if he is out, Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett look even better against the Wizards in Washington tonight. Alexandre Sarr is out for the home team, which in turn should advance Jonas Valanciunas into the starting lineup against the team that drafted him. That also makes for a fun matchup for Toronto’s center Jakob Poeltl, with the Washington frontcourt pretty weak, even when Sarr plays.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Michael Porter Jr. is someone to consider targeting for the over on his 5.5 rebounds prop on the road in New York.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 53% of the time. That combined with the +100 odds on HardRock leads to festive 5.1% expected value when accounting for the -111 “True Odds.”
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Porter projected for 30.6 minutes and 5.59 rebounds. That is right in line with the median projection, though within a fraction of the six need for this over to hit.
Porter has actually hit this mark in seven of his last 10 games, but four of those efforts were outings with exactly six rebounds and there was also a 30.5 minute appearance in Minnesota, where Porter corralled nary a carom. Tonight he will be battling with Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart, in addition to Jokic, but that is factored into the math already and also why this wager at +100 is key. Look at the other books at -125 and worse and make the strategic play.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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