Monday brings a massive NBA slate with 28 teams in action. The fun tips off at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. This slate is loaded with decision points, making it the perfect opportunity to highlight the top NBA DFS building blocks and best picks of the day. Let’s break down Thursday’s core plays, featuring discounted Zach Edey and a surging Jalen Johnson, along with some other intriguing situations.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, Dec. 26
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Zach Edey: Grizzlies vs. Raptors
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 33.1 | FanDuel: 33.55
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 47.4% | FanDuel: 26.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,100 | FanDuel: $5,300
Rookie Zach Edey is projecting to be a popular value play on Thursday, with a salary in the low-$5,000s on the main DFS sites.
Jay Huff is out for Memphis, cutting down the frontcourt depth, and Jakob Poeltl is sidelined for Toronto, leaving a major void for the Raptors frontcourt.
Edey missed nearly a month with a sprained ankle, so tonight will be only his 19th NBA game and 13th start. The Toronto native projects for close to a double-double, and he should provide a couple of “stocks” as well. In his last three starts, he has averaged nearly 26 minutes, so he could play himself into something approaching 28 to 29 minutes, creating attainable upside.
The Raptors have been struggling on the glass over the last five games, three of which were without Poeltl. Kelly Olynyk Jr. may not start, but he looks like another potential discount dandy, as Toronto needs frontcourt size. He has power forward eligibility on FanDuel ($4,400), and he currently projects to be on nearly 20% of all tournament teams on the blue site.
Marcus Smart is out for the Grizzlies, which means more usage is likely to shift towards Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, who are both live for tournaments. Jaren Jackson Jr. is also a fun play, particularly on FanDuel ($7,900) where blocks and steals are worth 3 fantasy points each.
This season Memphis has played at the fastest pace in the league, while Toronto is in the top 5. That bodes well for Scottie Barnes, who once again is tasked with doing pretty much everything for his team. RJ Barrett missed a pair of performances with an illness, but he was able to play 33 minutes against the Knicks in New York on Monday. He should thrive in this freewheeling game environment, and as the wingman for Barnes, he has ample upside himself.
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Jalen Johnson: Hawks vs. Bulls
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 48.35 | FanDuel: 47.06
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 21.7% | FanDuel: 22.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $9,200
Shout out to Jalen Johnson, who is near his all-time high salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The 23-year-old has boosted his counting stats across the board for the fourth consecutive season, and he is now averaging 19.4 points, 10.1 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 2.5 combined blocks and steals.
Chicago and Atlanta each play at a top-3 pace, and neither squad prioritizes defense. Trae Young is questionable with a sore heel but expected to play after sitting out last Friday and playing on Monday. Bogdan Bogdanovic (left leg) missed the last game, and he is questionable for tonight. Onyeka Okongwu may return this weekend, but in the meantime, Larry Nance Jr. has seen elevated minutes.
The Bulls also have a host of questionable players, including Matas Buzelis (illness), Ayo Dosunmu (right Achilles, missed last five games) and Josh Giddey (ankle, missed last three games). If Dosunmu and Giddey play, they should be considered to be mostly at full health and the rest of the Chicago regulars lose their appeal. If one or both are out again, then Zach LaVine, Coby White and Nikola Vucevic are desirable tournament targets.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Bennedict Mathurin has a tough matchup tonight against Oklahoma City, which makes the under on his 5.5 rebounds prop worthy of our attention.
Looking at the screenshot of Portfolio EV, we can see this wager is likely to come to pass 52% of the time and with the +110 odds, this works out to a nifty 6.7% expected ROI when factoring in the -107 “True Odds.”
DraftKings is offering +110, which well exceeds the True Odds of -107 and the -120 odds posted on most other books. The near coinflip outcome means we MUST get this wager at plus money to give it value.
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Mathurin projected for 33.6 minutes and 6.05 rebounds. That is just above the six needed for this wager to fail. Mathurin is averaging 6.2 rebounds per game this season, which is well above his 4.4 career rate. In his 30 games, he has corralled more than six caroms 12 times (40%), exactly six on half a dozen occasions (20%) and five or fewer 12 times (40%).
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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