Tuesday keeps things moving with a spectacular seven-game featured slate, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks like Luka Doncic, De’Aaron Fox, Zion Williamson, potential value scenarios and MORE!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Tuesday, Feb. 25
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Luka Doncic: Lakers vs. Mavericks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 52.32 | FanDuel: 50.91
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 11.1% | FanDuel: 5.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $11,400
Tonight is the first installment of Luka Doncic going against Dallas. Mavericks fans are going to have to deal with this four times a year, plus any potential playoff matchups.
After a 22-game layoff, the Lakers eased Doncic back into his minutes with 23.5, 23.1, 33.3, DNP and 30.6. The superstar casually dropped 68 fantasy points in that fourth game, leading Los Angeles to a 23-point victory in Denver.
Doncic, teammate LeBron James (52.32) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (54.22) are the only three players projected for more than 50-plus median fantasy points on DraftKings. Doncic and Antetokounmpo are the only two above that threshold on FanDuel. The Lakers are 9.0-point favorites tonight, so, of course, there is blowout risk, but it would be disappointing if Kyrie Irving, PJ Washington, Klay Thompson, Max Christie, etc., just roll over.
Based on Doncic’s current popularity, we can see he is a luxury play, though expect him to settle in around 20% to 25% on DraftKings and 10% to 15% on FanDuel as more news is released throughout the day, unveiling additional value options. James is in a similar range, though there is a decent chance he will defer to his new teammate tonight. The Lakers are at full strength, which makes it tricky to recommend anyone else in this matchup on the featured slate. For the two-game late-slate, Rui Hachimura and Jaxson Hayes are tertiary targets against the shorthanded Dallas frontcourt, with Austin Reaves a wild card.
Irving is not in the picture for the featured slate on DraftKings, though he does have some utility on FanDuel, where he will likely be on around 15% to 20% of all rosters. Washington is the more intriguing target, but he is listed as questionable with right-ankle soreness. This was the same malady that had him missing a handful of games at the beginning of the month. He did not play in the final frame against Golden State on Sunday afternoon, though that was likely due to the massive deficit the Mavericks faced after the Warriors reached 100 points in the third quarter.
Christie has been a solid fantasy producer with his new team, scoring 29-plus fantasy points in six of his eight appearances. The extra attention going to Irving and Thompson have allowed the 3-and-D wing to see 10.5 field goal attempts per game, which is nearly 40% more than what he had in Los Angeles.
In the last nine games without Anthony Davis, Los Angeles somehow had the third-best defensive efficiency rating, ceding just 108.1 points per 100 possessions. This includes two games against Utah, as well as matchups against Charlotte, Portland and a short-handed Clippers squad. It is hard to believe the defense is actually “better” without Davis, though it is worth mentioning for awareness.
De’Aaron Fox: Spurs at Pelicans
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 45.98 | FanDuel: 44.93
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 37.1% | FanDuel: 23.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $9,600
On Sunday, San Antonio had a 17-point lead early in the third quarter prior to falling apart against the Pelicans and losing 114-96 in New Orleans. Tonight the teams are running it back, and De’Aaron Fox once again is looking like a strong DFS target.
Even with the dud 48-hours ago, plus rough games in Orlando and Boston, Fox is still averaging 35.1 minutes, 21.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 2.4 combined blocks and steals through his eight games with the Spurs.
The New Orleans defense has been dreadful all season, ranking in the bottom 5, seemingly regardless of the timeframe. After Fox, it is hard to be enthralled with any of the Spurs, even with Charles Bassey (knee) out tonight. Bismack Biyombo is on a second 10-day contract, and he played 30.1 minutes on Sunday with Bassey not returning after the first period. Sandro Mamukelashvili played only 7.2 minutes as Jeremy Sochan got time as the nominal five against the undersized New Orleans frontcourt.
Tread lightly with Chris Paul because the soon-to-be 40-year-old has played 21.7 and 24.8 minutes in the two games without Victor Wembanyama.
Turning our attention to New Orleans, Zion Williamson continues to be a dominant fantasy force. In his 20 appearances, he had 40-plus fantasy points 16 (80%) times and 50 or more on six (30%) occasions. Trey Murphy III also impressed with 37.3 minutes, 24.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.9 “stocks” in his last 23 games.
It seems like the plan is to continue to start Kelly Olynyk and Yves Missi alongside Williamson. Either could pop up with a good game from time to time as Zion is not playing more than 26 to 28 minutes, but their real path for fantasy success will be on games where Williamson rests.
Vince Williams Jr.: Grizzlies vs. Suns
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 19.88 | FanDuel: 19.61
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 27.67% | FanDuel: 22.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $4,000
Vince Williams Jr. is coming in as placeholder value on the early projection runs. He will likely be replaced as better options emerge with subsequent injury updates, though he is worth discussing for future scenarios.
After missing around 10 weeks with a knee injury, the third-year combo guard has been slowly ramping up his workload. He has rested on the last two back-to-backs but has reached 20 minutes of run.
Last year, when the Grizzlies were wildly shorthanded, Williams had several DFS moments as a discount dandy. Currently, Memphis is at full strength, though the former VCU Ram is still showing as a fine fantasy point-per-dollar play at his rock-bottom salary. He is projected for 20.5 minutes, which still has him as a fringe play.
Depending on who starts for Charlotte tonight with LaMelo Ball unlikely to play on the back-to-back, Elfrid Payton and Damion Baugh would present as more favorable targets since neither is on a minutes cap like Williams. Each has uncertainty with their playing time, but that is different than a hard ceiling.
Boston is favored by double digits in Toronto tonight, so seeing Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown join Jrue Holiday and likely Al Horford could open more minutes for Payton Pritchard or Sam Hauser. Houston could get Fred VanVleet back, though Dillon Brooks (illness) and Jae’Sean Tate (back) are questionable for the matchup against Milwaukee. The Bucks, of course, have seen surprise days off for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, and while neither is on the injury report currently, these would be the types of situations that could push Williams from his current status as a potential punt du jour.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Paolo Banchero looks like a player to target for the under on his 36.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop on Hard Rock, where it is currently available at an appealing -120 line.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 6.3% ROI. That combined with the -120 odds leads to a solid 3.2% expected value when accounting for the -129″True Odds.”
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Banchero projected for 32.8 minutes, 22.81 points, 6.88 rebounds and 4.73 assists for 34.42 PRA. This is below the 37 PRA needed for this wager to lose, but by no means is this a guaranteed victory.
Across his last 19 games, Banchero averaged 32.16 PRA in 32.5 minutes of run. In this stretch he had 37 or more PRA on five (26%) occasions.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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