Thursday has a front-loaded featured slate locking at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo as key contrarian plays, with Deni Avdija a tremendous foundational play in all formats.
These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Thursday, April 3
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Deni Avdija: Trail Blazers at Raptors
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 43.54 | FanDuel: 41.29
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 34.1% | FanDuel: 23.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $8,700
The difference between the Craptors and the Trail Blazers is that Portland is trying to win and make the Play-In Tournament, even though the window is rapidly closing. Toronto is in “asset protection” mode while also looking to increase lottery odds.
This has the Blazers favored by 4.5 points for this contest taking place in Canada. Though the Raptors are doing their best not to win, they still can push a team like Portland, which bodes well for the key members of the rotation.
Deni Avdija saw his salary steadily increase over the last 11 games, though it is appropriate, considering he had three tilts with 60-plus fantasy points and two more forays to the 50-fantasy-point plateau. During this stretch, he averaged 37.1 minutes and 16.0 field goal attempts with a 52.8% conversion rate. This includes a 48.1% success rate on 7.2 troikas per game, working out to averages of 25.9 points, 10.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.6 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals). Avdija was always promising during his time in Washington with his well-rounded skillset, but it was the lack of offensive drive that kept his ceiling limited to being an above-average rotation player. That has not been the case in Portland with so many key contributors injured this season.
Scoot Henderson (concussion) is missing a third consecutive game, and Anfernee Simons (forearm) is at risk of missing a second straight game. If Simons is out, Dalano Banton will likely receive another spot start and be the clear punt du jour. The 25-year-old is no stranger to Toronto, having been born there while also being drafted in the second round by the Raptors in 2021. For those needing an extra narrative, this is likely a “friends and family” game for the former Nebraska Cornhusker. If Simons is available, he is a secondary target, which will push Banton down to being a tournament differentiator.
Donovan Clingan and Shaedon Sharpe are viable options on DraftKings, with Toumani Camara joining them on FanDuel.
Jakob Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley are out tonight, which means that RJ Barrett and Ochai Agbaji will be playing. Neither is particularly intriguing with the soft minutes cap, but it does help rookie Ja’Kobe Walter have a decent chance for 28 to 30 minutes in the backcourt, while Jamison Battle remains a roster-fodder as a wing.
Jamal Shead jumps out on DraftKings ($4,500, 35.7%), though he is a little tenuous as a placeholder value, depending on what other news transpires prior to lock. He tends to see better minutes when Quickley is out since that is his ticket to join the first five. FanDuel ($5,700, 6.6%) is accounting for this role change, so he is a nominal play at best on the blue site.
Stokastic’s NBA DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a groundbreaking tool that revolutionizes lineup building by providing data-driven simulations, making it a must-have for serious players. Check out how the Simulator evaluates this single lineup for today’s slate:
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Tyler Herro: Heat vs. Grizzlies
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 43.04 | FanDuel: 41.12
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 10.1% | FanDuel: 24.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $8,500
Miami surprised the Celtics last night in Boston, with the Heat racing out to a 21-point lead early in the third quarter and holding on during the C’s fourth quarter comeback, ultimately winning 124-103.
Boston is pretty well ensconced with the second-best record in the Eastern Conference, so it was not a crucial situation. For Miami, this was the sixth straight win, and it is now one game behind Atlanta and 1.5 shy of Orlando as this trio of teams battles down the stretch for the Play-In Tournament seeding.
Herro scored 20-plus points in eight of the last nine games, averaging 36.1 minutes and 16.6 field goal attempts with a 54.4% success rate. His triples found the mark at a 40.8% clip in this same stretch on 5.4 attempts per appearance. The scoring is the key to unlocking his fantasy upside, and he is clearly the top option with Jimmy Butler out of town. Andrew Wiggins and Duncan Robinson are hurt, which further shores up the offensive opportunities for Herro and Bam Adebayo. Adebayo typically has the safer floor over Herro, but he does have comparable upside, which he accessed more frequently over the last fortnight.
Per the F-R-E-E Stokastic Starting Lineups page, it looks like Pelle Larsson is going to remain with the first five, which is key for the rookie to continue to receive 30 minutes per game. He was a surprise addition to the starting lineup, but in his last three games, he averaged 15 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.7 stocks. Alec Burks has also been starting, though he is pretty scoring dependent, and with his increasing cap hit, he is not particularly interesting.
Off the bench, Kyle Anderson, Haywood Highsmith and Davion Mitchell are potential discount dandies, though their value depends on personal preference and constructional constraints. Kel’el Ware is a dart throw, though the rookie has not had many apex games, and this is a matchup against a veteran frontcourt tonight.
Looking to the Grizzlies, Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells and Santi Aldama are in the low double digits on DraftKings, though only Aldama clears that popularity threshold on FanDuel. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are lottery tickets, but their salaries, a mostly healthy lineup and a tough matchup make them fungible options at best.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about NBA DFS, you already know the importance of leveraging the best tools. The same logic applies to sports betting, and that’s exactly where Portfolio EV comes in.
Take tonight’s Stephen Curry under 4.5 3-pointers, for example. It’s a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best available odds. But true Portfolio EV betting isn’t about locking in on one individual play; it’s about placing a large volume of these bets, using the Mass Entry tool to maximize your edge and let the math work in your favor over time.
No single bet defines a profitable night, just like no one DFS lineup guarantees a bink.
Portfolio EV helps bettors build a long-term winning strategy by identifying market inefficiencies, shopping for the best lines and compiling a portfolio of +EV bets will be super profitable with compounding returns. Betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing hot streaks—it’s about trusting the data and executing a smart, scalable strategy to beat the books.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Tune into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate tonight’s NBA DFS slate!
