NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Darius Garland Breakout Time! (December 20)

Friday has a compact three-game featured-slate tipping off at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. This slate is loaded with decision points, making it the perfect opportunity to highlight the top NBA DFS building blocks and today’s must-have picks. Let’s break down the day’s core plays, featuring Darius Garland, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tyler Herro and others.

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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, Dec. 20

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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

Damian Lillard (calf) is out for the Bucks, which has Cleveland installed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The Cavaliers (23-4) have the best record in the league, and coach Kenny Atkins has his team humming. The efficiency of the offense (120.6) and stalwart defense (110.3) have allowed the team to take it easy in the final frame of quite a few games. Of course, with a six-team player pool, we cannot be overly picky, but we do need to be cognizant of all of the key variables in play.

Darius Garland is having a tremendous year, and despite playing three fewer minutes fewer than last season, he is averaging 20.3 points per game — more than his 18.0 in 2023 — and the rest of his stats are in line with that effort. Last year saw him have career lows from the field, the line and behind the arc. This year he has personal highs of 48.5%, 41.8% and 93.9%. He should be able to maintain these rates, which will have him in the mix for his second All-Star appearance. Garland will likely be twice as popular on FanDuel than DraftKings, mostly due to the salary discrepancy between the sites.

Isaac Okoro (shoulder) will be out through the holidays, plus Max Strus is questionable with an ankle issue. If he is out, then there should be some trickle-down minutes going to Caris LeVert, Sam Merrill and Ty Jerome.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged 1.7 fantasy points per minute over the last season and change when Lillard has been off the court, so the two-time NBA MVP is the obvious priority play. Khris Middleton did not play in the NBA Cup Finals, but he is worthy of consideration tonight, though do not expect more than 22 to 23 minutes from the oft-injured wing. He can be productive on a per-minute basis and should have more usage without Lillard on the court. This is still a tough matchup, so letting other gamers assume the risk of a poor outing could be a savvy strategy, depending on where the popularity is trending for the 33-year-old.

Andre Jackson Jr., Delon Wright and AJ Green are the discount dandies from Milwaukee. There are pros and cons for each, though whichever lands in the starting lineup will carry the most popularity. Wright is the savvy veteran who does not do much in the way of offense, but he still can run the show and is a threat for a multi-steal game anytime he is on the court.

All of the Cleveland starters are in play, though they carry the same caveat as Garland when it comes to playing time. Evan Mobley is the second-best fantasy point-per-dollar play, plus Milwaukee does not really have a defensive answer for him. Bobby Portis will do what he can, but the Cavs will look to put him in pick-and-roll situations, and that is a key driver making Mobley look good.

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On to the fun: Tyler Herro has revamped his game, upping his shots around the basket and from 3-point land and finally eschewing the mid-range jumpers for the most part. After averaging just over 20 points per game each of the last three seasons, he is up to 24.1 this year on basically one more field attempt per game. He is averaging a career-high 10.1 attempts from beyond the arc, with a terrific 41.3% success rate. Yes, the Thunder have ample defenders to put on him, but he should still be able to get his in this regular season affair.

Miami is in Orlando tomorrow, so there is also some in-game rest risk for veteran Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, but the Heat are only two games above .500, and that is after winning six of the last nine. They cannot afford to lose winnable games, and this certainly is one. Of course, coach Erik Spoelstra is a master tactician, so if he determines the game to be unwinnable, he is likely to regroup for Saturday.

Again, these are all next-level decision points to keep in mind, but with such a shallow player pool, the savvy gamer needs to be cognizant of all the moving parts.

Speaking of moving parts, there could be quite a few in Philadelphia given Joel Embiid is dealing with the third facial fracture of his career and Charlotte lost last night in Washington, with the lowly Wizards securing a convincing 123-114 win. Brandon Miller was out, and he is questionable tonight; there is a chance that LaMelo Ball will get a rest as well. If Embiid is in, he is a strong play; if he is out, then Paul George and Tyrese Maxey are windmill slam dunks, having combined for 73 points in Charlotte on Sunday without their Cameroonian teammate. Andre Drummond benefits without Embiid if he starts, and, of course, Mr. DGAF himself, Kelly Oubre Jr. would be a fine tournament target.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

Jarrett Allen is someone to target in the sports wagering world for the under on his 10.5 rebounds prop.

Looking at the screenshot of Portfolio EV, we can see this wager is likely to come to pass 53% of the time, and with the +100 odds, this works out to a steady 3.8% expected ROI when factoring in the -112 “True Odds.”

BetRivers, SugarHouse and Unibet are offering +10, which well exceeds the True Odds of -110 and the –120 or worse of most other books.

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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Allen projected for 31.1 minutes and 10.6 rebounds. This wager is likely to go down to the wire, but the math is in our favor. The Cavaliers are nearly double-digit favorites tonight, and we have seen coach Kenny Atkinson elect to give his core players in-game rest when the games are in hand. Milwaukee is a tough opponent, but without Damian Lillard against the tough Cleveland defense, the Bucks may be hard-pressed to generate offense tonight.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

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