Sunday winds down the weekend with two different NBA lock times, tipping off at 6:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings going an hour later at 7:00 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Giannis Antetokounmpo as the bucks deluxe recommendation, with ample salary savers from Charlotte in Jusuf Nurkic and KJ Simpson, and New Orleans offering up Jose Alvarado and Elfrid Payton, among others. Plus there is always a Sunday surprise that reveals itself at the last second.
These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Sunday, March 30
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Jusuf Nurkic: Hornets at Pelicans
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 28.87 | FanDuel: 28.49
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 64.1% | FanDuel: 26.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,800 | FanDuel: $4,700
Jusuf Nurkic is an easy click on DraftKings, where the salary algorithm seemed to have missed the news that Mark Williams was slated for a rest day. Things are a little more in question on FanDuel, where the Bosnian Bear takes up the lone center position and losing the ability to roster Karl-Anthony Towns and Alperen Sengun must be included in the equation.
There is not as much risk of the Pelicans playing Nurkic off the court, as they are missing essentially their entire projected opening night lineup. Charlotte is looking to continue losing games to maximize lottery pick potential, and New Orleans is basically in the same boat. Nurkic will be splitting the center minutes with Moussa Diabate, and both project for a potential playing time range of 22 to 28 minutes. Whichever ends up starting will have a slight edge, though that will also come with higher tournament representation. Diabate is cheaper on DraftKings ($3,100, 25.1%), which allows for this duo to be rostered together. He is also cheaper on FanDuel ($4,100, 6.7%) but has the same opportunity cost of missing out on Towns and Sengun.
LaMelo Ball has been shut down for the season, and expectations are that he has minor procedures on his wrist and ankles, which have been bothering him for a large portion of the season. That means more minutes for KJ Simpson, Nick Smith Jr. and DaQuan Jefferies, with their appeal pretty much in that order when accounting for fantasy projections and salaries. Ball has missed enough time over the last month that the salaries for this trio have mostly taken into account their increased opportunities.
Miles Bridges is the wild card with a shutdown before the end of the season likely. The Hornets have nothing to play for other than a game in front of their hometown fans, so the hope is that is enough for Bridges to see 30 to 32 minutes of run. He looks best on FanDuel ($8,400, 30.1%), which presents a $600 savings over his salary cap hit on DraftKings ($9,000, 18.2%).
Over his last seven games, Bridges has averaged 30.1 minutes, 14.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 0.9 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals). Only once in this stretch did he top 40 fantasy points, while he had one game with fewer than 25 fantasy points and another that was a sub-20-fantasy point dud. This was a far cry from his torrid stretch in the six outings preceding his most recent seven, where he had five games of 50-plus fantasy points, including two with over 60. He averaged nearly 36 minutes in during that stretch, which is pretty much off the table for Sunday’s range of outcomes.
New Orleans is so thin in the backcourt that it brought in Elfrid Payton to assist Jose Alvarado with the playmaking duties. Payton is a steal on DraftKings ($3,300, 30.9%) with a $2,200 savings over Alvarado ($5,500, 31.4%). Things are very different on the blue site, where Payton ($4,500, 16.1%) offers only an $800 discount compared to Alvarado ($5,300, 58.3%). It also helps that “Grand Theft” Alvarado is awarded 3 points for steals on FanDuel.
Per the F-R-E-E Stokastic Starting Lineups page, the expectation Alvarado will continue starting, with rookie Yves Missi getting the nod in the frontcourt alongside Kelly Olynyk if he is healthy. Zion Williamson missed the last five games, and it would be a surprise at this point if he suits up again given his injury history. Trey Murphy III and Dejounte Murray are done for the year, and CJ McCollum is missing his third consecutive game with a bruised right foot. Keep in mind that Herb Jones and Brandon Boston have also missed significant time, as did Brandon Ingram prior to being traded to Toronto.
Jordan Hawkins is questionable with a sore back, while Olynyk has popped up on the injury report due to a left Achilles issue. That means more usage for Bruce Brown, though the versatile wing is unlikely to play more than low-30s minutes, and he logged 22 or fewer in three of his last eight appearances.
Finally, we have Karlo Matkovic, though in the last five games without Williamson, the rookie made just one start while averaging only 19.6 minutes per game. It appears that the team is not particularly interested in pushing him, but if Olynyk is out, something in the mid-20s range for run would be a reasonable expectation.
Stokastic’s NBA DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a groundbreaking tool that revolutionizes lineup building by providing data-driven simulations, making it a must-have for serious players. Check out how the Simulator evaluates this single lineup for today’s slate:
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Trae Young: Hawks at Bucks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 44.46 | FanDuel: 41.31
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 19.7% | FanDuel: 8.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $9,300
Just play Giannis Antetokounmpo. OK, now that we have that on record, let’s look at Trae Young, who is projected a top-3 median fantasy point outcome on the featured slate.
Though the low-40s-fantasy point expectation is not sexy, there is definitely available upside, as Young reached the 50-fantasy point plateau in seven of his last nine games. He continues to lead the league with a career-high 11.4 assists while contributing nearly 27 points per game in his last eight efforts.
Milwaukee is still without Bobby Portis, who is wrapping up his suspension, though Damian Lillard is likely done for the year with blood clot issues in his calf. This has the Bucks as scant 4-point home favorites, which means this is a very winnable game for Atlanta. The Hawks have the same record as Orlando with each team locked into the Play-In Tournament, currently facing a five-game deficit from the sixth seed. However, it is critical to remember that the top Play-In team hosts the first game and can secure a spot in the postseason with one victory while also having a second chance with a loss. The Bucks have a shot at improving their spot in the standings, but that is not really a priority.
Kyle Kuzma has stepped up to help with the scoring burden, getting 16 field goal attempts in four of his last six games. He will continue to play mid-30s minutes and is live for a 30-plus PRA (points + rebounds + assists) at any time.
Brook Lopez will turn 37 in two days, and the venerable veteran answered the bell with 21-plus points in three of his last four games. Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. are splitting the point guard role, which has each curbing the upside of the other since they do not play many minutes together. It is reasonable to only use one of them per lineup in tournaments today with their respective salaries reflecting the absence of Lillard.
Closing things out with Atlanta, Onyeka Okongwu continues to impress, and given that Clint Capela and Larry Nance Jr. are each down for the year, he has little competition for minutes. This, of course, is baked into his salary, but he is very much in play on DraftKings where we can roster two centers, as well as FanDuel, which continues to grant him power forward eligibility. Dyson Daniels is living up to his “Great Barrier Thief” nickname, leading the league in steals and wrapping up the safe options for Atlanta.
In the risky category, we have Vit Krejci (only if he sticks with the first five), rookie Zaccharie Risacher (though the team has been limiting the rookie’s minutes without actually resting him for entire games) and do-everything-but-nothing-well veteran Caris LeVert (illness).
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
For Sunday, we can look to James Harden and the under for his 8.5 assists prop at SugarHouse.
With the combination of today’s matchup variables and the -108 odds, there is a stellar 6.0% expected value when factoring in the -123 “True Odds,” along with the 8.2% historical ROI.
Portfolio EV does all the heavy lifting when sorting through the endless opportunities across the various sports wagering operators, highlighting the best spots quickly and effortlessly.
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Harden projected for 34.2 minutes and 8.02 assists. This is a tough matchup against the Cleveland defense, and with Kawhi Leonard ruled out, that takes another scoring option off the court.
That could lead to Harden calling his own number more, and it is worth noting that he did not reach nine assists in his last three games, and in his last seven games, he had more than 8.5 assists twice, landing on nine in each of those outings.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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