Friday has a quick three-game featured slate, tipping off at 7 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. There are a lot of moving parts at this point in the NBA season, so the focus is on the best NBA DFS building blocks and picks for the day. Let’s break down Friday’s top options, with Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland looking like good plays from Cleveland, and Mark Williams and his surging salary in the mix for tournaments.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, Jan. 24
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Donovan Mitchell: Cavaliers at 76ers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 39.87 | FanDuel: 38.35
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 19.6% | FanDuel: 17.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $8,800
Evan Mobley is out, which has a relatively significant impact on the remaining key Cleveland starters. Since the start of last season, Donovan Mitchell sees a 10% increase in his fantasy points per minute to 1.37 with Mobley out, Darius Garland gets a 14% bump to 1.17, and Jarrett Allen rises by nearly 20% to 1.25.
Mobley is vacating 30.2 minutes, 12.4 field goal attempts, 18.6 points and 8.8 rebounds, which gives extra opportunities to be doled out for those taking the court tonight.
Mitchell has been getting some serious offensive volume across his last five games, attempting 22.2 shots and nine per game from beyond the arc. Sadly, he has failed to find the mark, converting on only 40.5% in total and 28.9% from long range. These are well below his career rates of 44.9% and 36.9%, so there is ample room for improvement.
Philadelphia is looking to end a seven-game slide with the season rapidly slipping away. Cleveland, on the other hand, has cruised to a 36-7 record, though the team dropped three of the las six games. The Cavaliers will be looking to avenge Wednesday’s loss in Houston on Saturday as they return home to host the Rockets. The 76ers in turn will head to the Windy City to face the Bulls as part of a full day that has 28 teams in action.
The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid, Andre Drummond, Caleb Martin, Kyle Lowry and KJ Martin. That bodes well for Allen, who should be able to have plenty of room to operate in the paint on offense while cleaning the glass on both ends of the court. Guerschon Yabusele will be doing his best, but keep in mind he is 29 years old and played in just 74 games for Boston over two seasons, five years ago. The 16th overall selection in the 2016 NBA Draft was out of the league until a strong showing in the Olympics for the French team earned him a second chance with the Association.
Caris LeVert is a potential starter in the absence of Mobley as the Cavs reconfigure their first five. However, the oft-injured 30-year-old missed the last two games with a wrist issue, and he is questionable tonight. His status does not impact Garland, who is a strong play in all formats, though LeVert being out for a third game would push offensive opportunities towards Max Strus, with minutes and potential mop-up duty moving towards Dean Wade and Ty Jerome.
The NBA is a funny sport, which showed up last night when the aging and mediocre Lakers easily dispatched a rested Boston squad in Los Angeles. Still, with Philadelphia nearly a double-digit home dog, plus the shallow player pool, Georges Niang and Craig Porter Jr. could see extended fourth quarter minutes and there is always a chance one of the key Cavaliers will get the night off ahead of Saturday’s game against the Rockets.
Tyrese Maxey had 50-plus DraftKings points in five of the last eight games, and even before the injury to Mobley, the Cleveland defense had been slipping from elite to very good. The loss of Mobley takes it down one more peg to merely “above average,” though that should not dissuade anyone from considering Maxey in tournaments.
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Mark Williams: Hornets vs. Trail Blazers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 41.09 | FanDuel: 41.19
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 37.4% | FanDuel: 23.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $8,500
Four 50-fantasy point performances in his last five games have Mark Williams surging up the salary sheet. Tonight he needs around 46 fantasy points to return value, so there is still profit to extract at his increased cap hit.
In these last five games, he averaged 32.2 minutes and 15.0 field goal attempts with a 65.3% conversion rate. This worked out to 25.0 points, 14.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.4 combined blocks and steals.
Hopefully, LaMelo Ball (wrist) and Miles Bridges (back) are good to go, as this will keep the defensive attention away from Williams. Of course, this is a matchup against the lowly Portland Trail Blazers, so there are no real worries either way. Ball and Bridges are primary plays if available, while Cody Martin and Seth Curry will move into the mix if both are out.
It is hard to tell if Portland is trying or tanking this year. If it finishes in the bottom 14 spots, it keeps its own first round pick; if not, then it conveys to Chicago. The Blazers beat the Bulls on Sunday, then knocked off Miam and Orlando on the Florida leg of this road trip. The team is 16-28, which is 6.5 games out of the Play-In Tournament but four games ahead of the bottom 3 records in the league, and the holders of those selections get an equal share of the most lottery balls in the upcoming draw.
The team is trying to boost the trade potential for Robert Williams while keeping him healthy, so there is a chance he will sit after playing last night. Deandre Ayton was out yesterday, but he rolled through Chicago and Miami with 18.5 points, 14.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.5 combined blocks and steals in 35.6 minutes. Of course, he was out on Saturday, so who knows if he will play tonight? If he is starting for Portland, you can start him for DFS, with the hope he is engaged.
Rookie Donovan Clingan is out, while Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant may “rest,” plus there was a shake up in the starting lineup last night with both Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe coming off the bench. DFS gamers are going to need to see where the dust settles, rather than speculating tonight. Fortunately, this game locks at 7 p.m. ET.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Trey Murphy III is a strong DFS option on the short slate, and he is also worthy of our consideration in the sports wagering world for the under on his 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop against the Grizzlies in Memphis.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 56% of the time. That combined with the -115 odds on SugarHouse, Unibet and BetRivers lead to reasonable 4.0% expected value when accounting for the -125 “True Odds.”
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Murphy projected for 33.6 minutes, 21.12 points, 5.07 rebounds and 3.02 assists for 29.91 PRA.
Zion Williamson is out tonight, and, of course, Brandon Ingram is on the shelf as well. Memphis has been improving on defense now that more of the regulars are healthy, so while this wager is likely to go down to the wire, the math is still on our side.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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