NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Bucks Galore and More! (March 4)

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NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Tuesday, March 4

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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

Milwaukee, of course, is without Bobby Portis (suspension) and Pat Connaughton (calf), and Kyle Kuzma (ankle) is doubtful. The Bucks are 7.0-point road favorites in Atlanta with the Hawks on a back-to-back after winning 132-130 in Memphis Monday night, erasing a 13-point deficit in the final frame and clinching the match on a Caris LeVert buzzer beater.

Over the last 10 games, Atlanta allowed 117.4 points per 100 possessions while playing at the second-fastest pace in the league. Milwaukee was half a possession behind in sixth place during this period, which has this tilt boasting a 240.5-point total. Damian Lillard missed the second leg of a back-to-back on Feb. 21, though he averaged 36.4 minutes, 24.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.3 steals in the four subsequent games. In this stretch, Lillard made 39% of his 41 3-point attempts, and it is only a matter of time before he puts everything together for a 50-plus-fantasy point game. Lillard just cleared this threshold in the last two meetings against the Hawks with 51.3 and 50.5 DraftKings points.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is not back to his 34.1-minutes-per-game average, though over the last four, he had a solid 32.1, accompanied by a 55.6% success rate on 18.0 field goal attempts per game. This resulted in 26.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, 7.3 assists and 2.1 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals). Anything short of a foray to the 50-fantasy point plateau should be considered a failure, and 60-plus is very much in play against the Hawks, who allowed 132, 135, 131, 86, 148, 114 and 137 points in regulation during the last seven games. On a fun note, Antetokounmpo led the team in points, rebounds and assists in the most recent trio of tilts.

Onyeka Okongwu is the best option from Atlanta, slotting in as the seventh-most popular option on DraftKings ($6,200, 27.7%) and ranking 15th on FanDuel ($7,100, 16.0%) in the early projection run. Milwaukee is missing two good rebounders in Portis and Kuzma, which bodes well for Okongwu, who has wrested the lead pivotman role away from Clint Capela, averaging a decisive 31 minutes per game over the last 10 contests. He is more of a foundational play, though there is DFS upside in his arsenal.

Nikola Vucevic is out, which removes an above-average rebounding competitor and further aids Allen, who won’t have to battle Mobley either. Allen has a 40% probability of reaching his “boom” score of 40 fantasy points on DraftKings, with a 27% likelihood of producing 45 fantasy points on FanDuel. Allen also has power forward eligibility on the blue site, making him a strong foundational piece in all formats.

Ty Jerome continues to impress DFS gamers, and he has been receiving a steady diet of mop-up minutes, allowing him to thrive with fewer starters on the court. He is coming off a sensational 52-fantasy point outing with a whopping 35 minutes in what was a contested overtime affair against Portland on Sunday; the Cavs finally finished the visiting Trail Blazers off with a narrow 133-129 victory in Cleveland. We should not expect that again from Jerome, though he did have 40-plus fantasy points in two of his last four games. He will get a boost if one of Mitchell or Garland ends up with a night off, with the remaining guard also becoming a priority.

Bulls rookie Matas Buzelis is a potential discount dandy on the featured slate, though he is best utilized for the mid-evening sub-slate. Zach Collins and Coby White also gain prominence in that shallower player pool.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

Tonight we can look to the under for Harrison Barnes’ 11.5 points prop on BetRivers, SugarHouse and Unibet, where this wager is available at -110.

The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 6.6% ROI. The combination of today’s variables, along with the -110 odds, results in a stellar 6.6% expected value when factoring in the -126 “True Odds.”

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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Barnes projected for 23.1 minutes and 9.73 points. This is well below the 12 points needed for this wager to lose, though still far from a sure-fired guarantee. One comforting element is that sharp book Pinnacle has this wager listed at -154, which is incredibly punitive when compared to the top trio of options.

Barnes saw his minutes range from 17.7 to 30.8 in the seven games since Victor Wembanyama was lost to injury. The average minutes in this stretch were 23.5, with the points down at 8.5 per appearance. The soon-to-be 33-year-old had three games of 13 or more points, with 5, 2, 0 and 8 points in the other four.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

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