Thursday has a stellar six-game featured slate, locking at 7:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. This slate is packed with key decision points, making it the perfect time to spotlight the top NBA DFS building blocks and picks of the day. Let’s break down Thursday’s plays, with Trayce Jackson-Davis and Deni Avdija glue guys on the court and in DFS lineups, while Austin Reaves is looking like a breakout candidate.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, Jan. 2
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Trayce Jackson-Davis: Warriors vs. 76ers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 27.63 | FanDuel: 28.39
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 39.6% | FanDuel: 26.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,700 | FanDuel: $5,900
Brandin Podziemski and Gary Payton II are out, and while that does not directly impact Trayce Jackson-Davis, it gives coach Steve Kerr fewer players to tinker with in his rotation. Stephen Curry (right thumb) and Kyle Anderson (illness) are also questionable, while Draymond Green (elbow) is probable.
Jackson-Davis scored 30-plus fantasy points in each of the last six games since rejoining the first five. Though he has not consistently looked for his own offense, he averaged just over 12 field goal attempts in each of the last three games. The second-year frontcourt player has a 66.7% field goal conversion rate for his career, and while that will slip with more shots, he still is incredibly effective. The rebounds are also trending up, with at least nine in five of these six starts and an average of 10.2 caroms per contest. Jackson-Davis has the best fantasy point-per-dollar ratio of any player on DraftKings, and he is among the upper echelon on the blue site.
Dennis Schroder is picking up traction on DraftKings ($5,000, 39.4%) and FanDuel ($5,400, 46.8%), but he has not expressed much of a fantasy ceiling this season with Golden State or with Brooklyn. Even if Curry is out, it would make sense to move away from Schroder and let The Masses deal with a potentially putrid performance.
Jonathan Kuminga has seen extended run over the last three games, so perhaps he is no longer in the coach Kerr doghouse. Andrew Wiggins would get an additional boost with either Curry or Anderson out, though he too has not been much of a high-flyer this year when it comes to fantasy production. Gamers will likely flock to Moses Moody if Curry is out, but how many times have we been disappointed before by his coach looking to play literally anyone else ahead of the fourth-year guard?
Joel Embiid was out last night, so the expectation is that he will play tonight. He is live for tournaments, but your mileage may vary.
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Deni Avdija: Trail Blazers at Lakers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 31.85 | FanDuel: 31.48
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 48.7% | FanDuel: 35.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $6,300
Deni Avdija is racing up the popularity leaderboard across most industry contributors, with the expectation that he will gain extra minutes with Jerami Grant out of commission. Delano Banton is questionable with hip soreness, which could open up additional opportunities.
Avdija is an excellent NBA asset who can contribute in any environment. He is a strong rebounder, a capable facilitator and he can hold his own on defense. He also is a decent scorer, though he rarely looks for his own shot and doesn’t force things. When the former Washington Wizard gets 10-plus field goal attempts in a game, he is usually a productive DFS contributor. That is the hope tonight with Grant out of the picture.
This is the front end of a back-to-back for the Lakers, who will be hosting Atlanta on Friday. Anthony Davis (ankle) is questionable, though with the spread approaching double digits, it seems like he is going to play. This is a great matchup for both Davis and LeBron James, but if Los Angeles can take care of business, both are candidates for late-game rest.
Austin Reaves is the big winner now that D’Angelo Russell is out of the picture since that means the Lakers are committing to him as their third offensive option. In the last three games, Reaves logged 39.1 minutes and 18.7 field goal attempts, converting at a 50% clip. This worked out to 29.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 12.0 assists and 0.7 steals. While these averages are not sustainable, he should continue to approach a usage rate in the upper-20% range while regularly flirting with the 40-fantasy point plateau. Do not shy away from the increased salary; he definitely has earned it.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
James Harden continues chugging along in his age-35 season, though the tough matchup against Oklahoma City makes the under on his 21.5 points prop worthy of our attention.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to become a reality 55% of the time. With the -110 odds, this results in a fun 5.2% expected value when accounting for the -123 “True Odds.”
Hard Rock is offering -110, which exceeds the True Odds of -123, and the other books are offering -125 or worse, with some also dropping the line down to 20.5 points.
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Washington projected for 33.1 minutes and 20.63 points, which is comfortably below the 21.5-point line.
Harden is averaging 21.9 points per game this season. In his last 10 games, he averaged 21.0 points while falling shy of the 22-point milestone six times. Even with Alex Caruso out, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort are ferocious on-ball defenders who should keep Harden busy tonight and make him earn every point.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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