Thursday keeps things moving with the NBA action locking at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Aaron Gordon and Bol Bol, superstar options such as Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Suns’ big three getting illogical minutes and MORE!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Thursday, Feb. 27
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Aaron Gordon: Nuggets at Bucks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 28.89 | FanDuel: 28.03
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 39.1% | FanDuel: 27.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,300 | FanDuel: $5,800
Aaron Gordon finally got off the schneid, with back-to-back games of 35-plus fantasy points. Over his last three games, he’s attempted 13, 15 and 17 shots, with a ridiculous 62.2% success rate. That includes shooting 53.8% on 13 attempts from behind the arc. That success is not going to be sustainable, but we should ride the streak while it’s in progress, particularly in tonight’s matchup against the Bucks.
Over their last 10 games – Milwaukee has been around league average on defense, though that stretch includes matchups against Charlotte, Washington, Miami and Philadelphia. Bobby Portis‘ absence removes a strong rebounder, but also a subpar defender. Nikola Jokic is nearly unstoppable, and it’s unlikely that soon-to-be 37-year-old Brook Lopez, journeyman Kyle Kuzma, or even Giannis Antetokounmpo will slow him down. It’s always fun when Jokic and Antetokounmpo square off, considering they’ve combined to win five of the last six NBA MVP Awards. Both are desirable options tonight, with the savvy gamer having at least one of them on most rosters.
Damian Lillard is a neutral option on DraftKings ($9,000, 15.1%), though he is popping on FanDuel ($8,800, 37.1%). When he is dialed in from long distance, Lillard is still one of the most explosive fantasy producers in the game. Milwaukee’s next two games are on Saturday and Tuesday, so we should see their core players going all-out tonight, as 3.5-point home dogs.
Pat Connaughton Jr. is out, so there should be some trickledown minutes for the likes of Andrew Jackson Jr., AJ Green, Kevin Porter Jr. and Gary Trent Jr., though this is more of a hot-hand situation than anything truly actionable. Wrapping up the Nuggets, Michael Porter Jr. looks best on DraftKings, with Russell Westbrook, Christian Braun and Jamal Murray tertiary targets, who are viable for tournaments.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Bol Bol: Suns vs. Pelicans
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 28.09 | FanDuel: 28.39
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 45.6% | FanDuel: 21.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,900 | FanDuel: $5,900
Wrapping this all in the caveat that we need Bol Bol in the starting lineup again, but it looks like Phoenix is in desperation mode, having lost nine of the last 11 games (82%). Four of the losses have been by 17 or more points.
Bol replaced Royce O’Neale in the starting lineup on Tuesday, drawing his third start in the last six games. In the trio of tilts as a reserve, he logged 9.9 minutes on average, which is why he needs to be a confirmed starter, for any sort of comfort in his potential playing time.
In his three starts, the 25-year-old has averaged 31.8 minutes and 15 field goal attempts per game, shooting 51.8% from the field. This has translated to 18.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 1.0 steal, and 2.7 blocks—good for around 40 fantasy points per game.
Bradley Beal has also moved back into the starting lineup, playing an insane 40.8 minutes per game, including one overtime contest. For the oft-injured guard, it feels like only a matter of time before he finds a way to hurt himself. Until then, he should hover around 40 fantasy points most nights, but we all know how this story tends to end.
Kevin Durant is averaging 40.7 minutes per game over his last six healthy appearances, which gives him access to 50-plus fantasy points. Similarly to Beal, his 36-year-old body has been ravaged by so many maladies, it is all but inevitable that he is going to miss games down the stretch, but that is tomorrow’s problem.
Devin Booker is the third member of the big three and also the youngest. He is averaging a career-high 37.2 minutes per game, which is a lot for someone who has not played more than 68 games in the last seven seasons, with an average of 63.4. He has logged time in 52 of 58 games this year, while producing top-level fantasy stats. Tyus Jones is back to the bench, though his playing time will increase when one of the lead guards is inevitably injured again.
Currently Phoenix has just over a 5% probability of making the Play-In Tournament, so expect the wheels to come off the wagon at some point, leaving coach Mike Budenholzer and billionaire Mat Ishibia looking at a complete collapse of any semblance of basketball by St. Patrick’s Day.
Over the last 10 games, the Suns have allowed a league-worst 121.8 points per 100 possessions, which bodes well for the Pelicans. New Orleans has a dreadful defense as well, which in turn makes this an appealing game total of 236 points, which should have the attention of most DFS gamers. This is the first of two games between these teams, with the action continuing tomorrow night in the Valley of the Sun.
Kelly Olynyk and Bruce Brown Jr. have already been ruled out for rest, which means we should see Zion Williamson in action tonight and on the bench Friday. Williamson disappointed on Tuesday, with his second sub-30 fantasy point effort in the last seven games, but he has posted 40-plus in the other five, with a pair of 50-fantasy point efforts. He got up to 29.3 minutes, which was a season-high, but it would be a surprise to see him crest over 30 minutes with the team trying to keep him healthy. He averaged 31.4 minutes in his first five games this season, including a back-to-back, then missed 31 of the next 33 games. Bol and Nick Richardson are going to be no match for him in the paint.
Rookie Yves Missi should see a few extra minutes with Olynyk resting tonight, as he’s the likely post player to fill in for some of the minutes when Williamson is out. Prior to the arrival of the Canadian journeyman, Missi was regularly pushing towards 30 minutes of run. In early projections, he is among the five most popular options on DraftKings and just outside the top 20 on FanDuel.
Trey Murphy III has continued his breakout season, assuming a lot of the scoring load vacated by Dejounte Murray. He is an excellent option in all game formats, with a safe floor and access to 50 fantasy points. Jordan Hawkins is a discount dandy, who gets a mention with the thinner player pool and Jose “Grand Theft” Alvarado should find steals easier to come by tonight, as compared to the last two games when he was going against De’Aaron Fox and Chris Paul.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Mark Williams looks like a player to target for the under on his 10.5 rebounds prop on Fanatics.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 4.4% ROI. The combination of today’s variables, along with the +105 odds, results in an elite 11.9% expected value when factoring in the -120 “True Odds.”
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Williams projected for 25.7 minutes and 10.5 rebounds. This is right in line with the target, so getting this wager at “plus money” is critical.
Since the rescinded trade with the Lakers, the Hornets have taken it easy with Williams. The oft-injured big man has played in only three games over the past three weeks, with Charlotte holding him out of back-to-backs. There’s no reason to push Williams, or LaMelo Ball for that matter, with the team holding their own pick if it lands in the lottery. Currently the Hornets are on a four-game losing streak and have lost 7 of their last 8 games (88%) and 13 of their last 15 (87%). Charlotte has the third-worst record in the league, one game behind New Orleans. Keep in mind, the bottom-three teams all have the same lottery odds.
In the last three games, Williams played 29 minutes against the Lakers in Los Angeles, grabbing 9 rebounds, 21.3 minutes in Portland with 5 boards, and 25.1 minutes on the road against Golden State, collecting 12 rebounds. Williams certainly has the potential to grab 11 rebounds against the depleted Dallas frontcourt tonight, but the odds lean toward the under. In his 19 games with at least 21 minutes, Williams has surpassed 10 rebounds eight times (42%), with five of those performances coming in games where he logged 30-plus minutes—something that’s unlikely to be in the cards for the remainder of the season.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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