Monday begins a new NBA week with the DFS action locking at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks, including some intriguing playing time situations that provide steady value options. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic as the premium recommendations.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Monday, January 29
Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 61.32 | FanDuel: 58.94
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 9.9% | FanDuel: n/a
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,300 | FanDuel: $11,800
Tonight is a marquee matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks, who are in Denver taking on the reigning NBA champion Nuggets. Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo have four of the last five NBA MVPs, with each earning two of the top honors. Both of these players are frequent recommendations in this article series, so their bona fides are well documented. Either is a fine play, though Jokic gets the slight advantage for being at home and acclimated to the elevation.
This season, Jokic is averaging 26.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, 8.9 assists, and 2.0 combined blocks and steals. Oh, and he also leads the league with 13 triple-doubles. Most impressive is that he is incredibly efficient, generating all of this fantasy goodness in just 33.6 minutes per game. Tonight should be a competitive affair, with the Nuggets favored by a scant 4 points.
Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks vs. Orlando Magic
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 68.44 | FanDuel: 64.79
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 17.6% | FanDuel: 10.9%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,800 | FanDuel: $12,500
Kyrie Irving (thumb) has already been ruled out for tonight, so Luka Doncic will once again have unfettered usage as the main cog in the Dallas offense. Orlando is a strong defensive team; however, the Mavericks still have a 116.5 projected team total, which is within a bucket of their season average.
Doncic is in the midst of a career campaign, averaging 37.3 minutes and 24.0 field goal attempts with a stellar 48.8% conversion rate. This has culminated with 34.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 9.4 assists and 2.0 combined blocks and steals, for just over 60 FanDuel and 63 DraftKings fantasy points per game. He has topped 70 fantasy points in four of his last five games and that is in play again tonight.
Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs
This matchup has a delightfully high 240.5 projected point total, and it is the rare time that the San Antonio Spurs are favorites. We just saw the Spurs best the Wizards in Washington 131-127 nine days ago and San Antonio is actually on a two-game winning streak, including a thrilling 113-112 win over the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday.
Washington continues to be a mess, and after Jordan Poole quickly wore out his welcome, it now sounds like the team is considering offers for Kyle Kuzma since it is clear it is going nowhere fast. However, the Wizards are playing at the league’s fastest pace over the last two weeks, with San Antonio also in the top 6. The team moved coach Wes Unseld Jr. to the front office and will be led in the interim by Brian Keefe.
Kuzma is in play on a nightly basis, as the player most likely to see 32 to 34 minutes, but that is far from a ringing endorsement. Poole is a wild card who is solely depending on scoring for his fantasy production and always a risk of in-game benching for lack of effort. Tyus Jones has been the steadying presence as the team’s new point guard, and he will be battling brother Tre Jones on the opposite side, which is always fun. Deni Avdija and Daniel Gafford are neutral options for the evening sub-slate but tertiary plays at best for the featured contests.
Not to bury the lede, but rookie Victor Wembanyama has had his minutes ceiling pushed to 30 per game. He has averaged 29 minutes per game over his last five, with just over 50 fantasy points per outing in that stretch, and with his ability to rack up blocks and steals and the undersized and weak rebounding frontcourt of Gafford and Marvin Bagley III, Wembanyama is all but a lock for a double-double and another mid-50-fantasy point effort.
Jones has been seeing 28 to 32 minutes per game as well in four of the last five games, and he knows his main priority is to feed Wembanyama. Devin Vassell is in play on DraftKings, while it is Jeremy Sochan who looks better on FanDuel.
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Additional NBA DFS Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
James Harden has certainly helped elevate the Clippers, but we can still look to the under on his 18.5 points prop. That bet is currently available at -105, and per the true odds of -115 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a decent 3% expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
It is crucial to take advantage of OddsShopper to look at all the available lines since that can easily be worth another 2% to 3% for your ROI, even on perfectly neutral bets, based on how the different books value things. To demonstrate this very concept, look below — you can see that sharp book Pinnacle is at -134, so be a savvy shopper!
The 10-time All-Star and three-time scoring champion has embraced his role as the primary facilitator, but he still calls his own number when needed. NBA Bet Pro currently has the enigmatic point guard projected for 35.7 minutes and 17.59 points. This wager is likely to come down to the wire and is mostly predicated on Harden distributing the ball to Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Harden is averaging 17.2 points per game himself, with 16 of his 39 (41.1%) games seeing him tally 18 or more points.
In the 15 games since Christmas, he has scored 18 or more points six times, though three of those have been in the last four games. Cleveland is a tough defense, and it could be getting Evan Mobley back tonight after a nearly two-month absence as he needed surgery to take care of the issue.
Here is a terrific article from Dave “Loughy” Loughran on OddsShopper breaking down why it is important to consider wagering on unders.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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