Tuesday brings an expansive seven-game featured slate, with tipoffs spanning from 7:30 p.m. ET through 10 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo and plenty of injury status situations which will continue to provide value options being revealed through tipoff.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Tuesday, March 12
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Thunder vs. Pacers
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 54.85 | FanDuel: 55.94
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 10.5% | FanDuel: 13.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $11,300
The Thunder had an easy go of it on Sunday, dispatching the Memphis Grizzlies,124-93 in Oklahoma City. The last of the starters hit the bench with just under three minutes to go in the third quarter, so they should be raring to go tonight in a tremendously DFS friendly matchup.
Jalen Williams tweaked his ankle in the last game, but he is trending towards playing tonight. If he sits, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will assume even more usage.
In his last 18 games, Gilgeous-Alexander has tallied at least 50 fantasy points a dozen times, with five games in the 60s and one in the 70s. He is second in the league with 31.1 points per game and first with 2.0 steals. There is not much else to add other than get him in your lineups!
If healthy, Williams is a steady fantasy option who should flirt with the 40-fantasy point plateau. Rookie Chet Holmgren continues to be a strong play after missing all of last season, and it seems that Josh Giddey is on pace to see 27 to 29 minutes most nights after being mired in the doldrums of 18 to 20, even as a starter.
Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam are the two most popular Pacers on both DraftKings and FanDuel. They actually match up relatively well with the Thunder, though outside of some in-game synergy, there is a decent chance this duo could fall out of the picture as other news situations firm up.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Bucks at Kings
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 59.97 | FanDuel: 58.64
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 10.7% | FanDuel: 14.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,500 | FanDuel: $11,900
Khris Middleton remains out, but the Bucks are still coming in as slim favorites in Sacramento tonight. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been managing a sore right knee, though the spread indicates he is playing tonight.
He has been logging big minutes and has games of 60, 70 and 80 in his last five appearances.
Antetokounmpo is currently third in the NBA scoring race with 30.8 points per game, which trails only his 31.1 from last season. He also is averaging 11.0 rebounds and a career-high 6.5 assists per appearance. Over the last 10 games, Sacramento is allowing 116.4 points per 100 possessions, which are the seventh most in the league during this timeframe.
Damian Lillard has tallied 50-plus fantasy points in three of his last four games, and much like Antetokounmpo, he has been logging heavy minutes on this road trip. He is a nice differentiation play for the featured slate and a borderline core play for the late slate.
Domantas Sabonis is at a season-high $11,100 on FanDuel, and his $10,400 cap hit on DraftKings is close to an apex mark. Sabonis leads the league in triple-doubles, and while his 10 in the last 18 games are not as exciting as Luka Doncic, who has rattled off seven consecutive games with this milestone, it is still darn impressive. Once the rest of the value plays are revealed, expect Sabonis to be on around 20% of all tournament lineups.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs
Alperen Sengun is out after wrenching his right knee and also spraining his right ankle, which tentatively will have him missing at least a month and potentially any potential postseason actions. Dillon Brooks and Amen Thompson are easily the best fantasy point-per-dollar options from the Rockets since they should gain additional minutes. Jabari Smith Jr., Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green will also be receiving a boost in their productivity and fantasy efficiency. Sengun was in the midst of a tremendous breakout season, posting career highs with 32.5 minutes, 15.6 field goal attempts, 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.9 combined blocks and steals.
In turn, the Spurs will be receiving a bonus as the Rockets are allowing 116.5 points per 100 possessions when Sengun is off the court this season. Victor Wembanyama is not on the injury report, and while this is a back-to-back, in his most recent set of consecutive games, he played around 31 minutes in each. The presumptive Rookie of the Year is still a viable tournament option, though it is harder to recommend him with much fervor as he is near his all-time-high DFS salary.
Devin Vassell, Tre Jones, Jeremy Sochan and Keldon Johnson can be sprinkled across lineups for tournaments as differentiation plays.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Bobby Portis looks like someone to target in the sports wagering market. The under for his 7.5 rebounds prop is currently available at odds of +105 on Hard Rock and bet365.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can easily take advantage of outliers in a situation such as this, with most of the other popular books in the -110 to -120 range, which is likely paying an 8% to 10% penalty for not being a smart shopper!
Per the true odds of -101 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a steady 4.9% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Portis projected for 26.3 minutes and 7.68 rebounds. While this is slightly above the 7.5 threshold, keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.
Over his last 13 games, Portis has been below this milestone six times, but of the seven where he reached the over, he landed on exactly eight four times. Tonight he will, of course, be battling Antetokounmpo for boards as always, but also going against Sabonis, which could be just the variable needed for him to fall short on this wager.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by PrizePicks – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match AND – ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium! Full details here.
