Sunday has a short two-game slate with a 7:00 p.m. ET first tip on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Jalen Suggs and potential slate-breaker Luka Doncic.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Sunday, Nov. 3
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Zion Williamson: Pelicans vs. Hawks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 47.78 | FanDuel: 47.68
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 56.1% | FanDuel: 73.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,100 | FanDuel: $9,000
New Orleans is missing most of a starting lineup, with Dejounte Murray, C.J. McCollum, Trey Murphy and Herb Jones all out of commission. New starting guard Jordan Hawkins is also questionable with a sore back.
This means Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are going to do a lot of heavy lifting for the next couple of weeks.
Well of course because Sunday NBA is all sorts of foolishness, Zion is now out with a sore hamstring. This boosts Ingram even more and also looks good for Hawkins.
Tonight the Pelicans are hosting the Atlanta Hawks, with a 230.5 game total well above the Magic-Mavericks (218.5) matchup. Williamson missed the first game of the season with an illness, though he has been fine in the subsequent five tilts. Over the last three, he has averaged 33.3 minutes and 19.7 field goal attempts at a 52.5% success rate. This has resulted in 25.7 points, 8.7 rebounds 5.7 assists, and 1.4 combined blocks and steals.
Though it has been only five games, the absence of Jonas Valanciunas has allowed Williamson to increase his rebounding rate to a personal-best 9.2 per 36 minutes, compared to 6.6 last year and 7.4 for his career. He also has seen an uptick in assists with both guards out, which is allowing the former Duke Blue Devil to post his best fantasy rates of his career, despite struggling from the field. This is a small sample size, but it looks like the gigantic 24-year-old is poised for a huge season.
When healthy (this seems to be a refrain for this franchise), Ingram is a do-everything forward who has averaged 23.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.4 stocks in his 293 games for New Orleans. Sadly, he has averaged only 57.4 games per year in his five full seasons in The Big Easy.
Jose Alvarado is losing efficiency with his additional minutes, though that makes sense since he is getting more time against the top unit. Still, steals drive his fantasy goodness, and “Grand Theft Alvarado” is always live for a big game, particularly on FanDuel. Rookie Yves Missi got his first start of the season on Friday, and he registered 10 rebounds, a block and 4 points. He is best employed on DraftKings, where you can play two centers. Over on the blue site, there is some opportunity cost in losing out on Wendell Carter Jr. and the Dallas pivot men. If the rookie starts again over Daniel Theis, the veteran loses any appeal, even with the shallow player pool.
Hawkins is a tournament target if he is in the starting lineup since he has been a surprise source of offense, with three games of 23-plus points this season. If he is out, then Brandon Boston Jr. could get a spot start, making him the punt du jour.
Trae Young is back to dominating the offense with Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter out with injuries. If former Pelican Dyson Daniels is able to return from his hip injury, he is a desirable option. If he is out, then Garrison Mathews is in the mix as a discount dandy.
Okongwu has been ruled out as well, so that means backup minutes for Nance in the 20-22 range, making him a strong punt option.
Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu continue to split the center minutes, with the former starting and the latter picking three or four more minutes each game off the bench. If either is out – because, of course, Sunday NBA always brings some sort of unexpected surprise — then Larry Nance Jr. would look good against one of his former teams.
Zaccharie Risacher is a wild card, while Jalen Johnson and his rising salary have tournament-winning upside.
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Jalen Suggs: Magic at Mavericks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 36.34 | FanDuel: 35.69
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 66.5% | FanDuel: 37.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,500 | FanDuel: $7,900
Paolo Banchero is out until at least the Christmas holidays as he recovers from a torn oblique. That leaves a massive void in the offense, and it looks like Jalen Suggs is either in the midst of a heater or potentially leveling up.
Over his last four games, he is averaging 34.3 minutes, 22.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 4.3 stocks. The FanDuel algorithm has caught on, but DraftKings is lagging behind this sudden surge.
Wendell Carter Jr. is dealing with a sore knee, so if he is out again, then Moritz Wagner is likely to get another spot start. Kid brother Franz Wagner is going to have to step up his offensive game in order to keep the Magic afloat while Banchero is out, making him a boom/bust tournament option on a go-forward basis. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope continues to chug along, though the rest of the Orlando rotation is a bit of an inconsistent mystery with most of the reserves having malleable skillsets, but no real dominating attributes. This means that minutes are hard to predict.
Last year Luka Doncic led the league with 33.9 points per game after finishing second at 32.4 per outing in the prior season. So far he has struggled from the field, but expect things to turn around as the season progresses. Doncic is once again going to be in the MVP conversation, so it is only a matter of time before he starts piling up the fantasy goodness.
Kyrie Irving is a slightly better fantasy point-per-dollar option over Doncic, though he has nowhere near the ceiling. PJ Washington is the go-to Maverick on DraftKings ($5,300), while Klay Thompson has that honor on FanDuel ($5,300). The centers are always a coin flip, with “reserve” Dereck Lively II having more potential than starter Daniel Gafford, but both can rebound, block shots and are excellent in the lob game.
Naji Marshall is the random, off-the-board gut call for tonight. Your mileage may vary.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Daniel Gafford is splitting the center role with Dereck Lively II, which means both need to get by on efficiency when it comes to scoring. The addition of Klay Thompson is absorbing more shots than those he replaced from last year, making it tough for the centers to do more than post putbacks and ferocious dunks.
Tonight the under on his 8.5 points prop is worthy of our attention. By using Portfolio EV to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.
This pits the books against each other, which shows that Fanatics has moved ahead of all the other major operators.
Odds are constantly shifting and moving, so when you find a good number, pounce on it. That is the beauty and power of Portfolio EV to find the best odds at any point in the day.
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Gafford projected for 20.9 minutes and 8.53 points. That is below the 9 points needed for this under to fail but a pretty thin margin for error, as indicated by the 55% probability of the under hitting. Through five games, Gafford is averaging 9 points, 18.6 minutes and 3.2 fouls. This figures are all worse than his time last year with Dallas, though it is still a small sample size. This season Gafford has 9, 7, 9, 14 and 6 points in his appearances.
