Thursday has the NBA battling March Madness with a six-game featured slate beginning at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Domantas Sabonis and Nikola Jokic, along with other recommended options.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, March 21
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Domantas Sabonis: Kings at Wizards
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 59.42 | FanDuel: 55.44
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 24.1% | FanDuel: 28.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $11,000
Why yes, we are going right back to Domantas Sabonis for a second consecutive night. Once again Sacramento draws a favorable matchup after nearly making the Raptors extinct in Toronto last night with a 123-89 victory.
Sabonis posted a 13-point, 17-rebound, 10-assist triple-double in just 28 minutes, giving him his league-leading 23rd of the season.
De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk were equally as efficient with 20 and 17 points in 28 and 20 minutes. That is the trio to target again tonight in Washington. While the Wizards are 11-point home dogs, they do at least have Kyle Kuzma (shoulder) back after a two-game absence and Deni Avdija (knee) after missing the last three games. There is no need for this duo to return to action early, so they should ideally see something close to their typical run.
Back to the Kings, Kevin Huerter (shoulder) is unlikely to play, so Keon Ellis should get another spot start. For now he can be considered a placeholder value, though he could be replaced as other news trickles out towards first tip. If the Wizards disappear, second-year forward Keegan Murray could get a little extra run since Sacramento is looking to continue his development.
Corey Kispert and Jordan Poole should continue to be mainstays in the rotation, and they are fine as tournament differentiation plays.
Nikola Jokic: Nuggets vs. Knicks
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 61.77 | FanDuel: 59.45
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 4.8% | FanDuel: 5.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $11,900
Nikola Jokic does not have the same projected popularity as Luka Doncic, mostly due to him being a center-only option. Essentially this duo is a coinflip, as each is at home and favored by double digits.
Since Utah is missing a couple of starters and mailing it in, the “thesis” of giving Jokic the edge is that the Knicks may keep it closer as New York is eyeing the postseason, while Utah is thinking about the beach.
Though the NCAA has coined the term March Madness, the NBA certainly embodies that moniker as well.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Here is an intriguing wager that is one I rarely recommend, the under on a 0.5 made 3-pointers prop.
Currently Wendell Carter Jr. is sitting at +260 odds to not make a 3-point field goal tonight on FanDuel.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sports books allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.
Per the true odds of +221 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a terrific 12.2% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Carter projected for 26.2 minutes and 1.13 made 3-pointers. However, that is a fickle category, and we are also getting serious plus money to entice us towards the under, which in this case would be zero made 3-pointers for WCJ. Over his last 10 games, he has zero made 3-pointers three times, one three times and two on the other four occasions. That math is right in line with the 31% expected win rate for this bet and why on a long-term horizon it holds a lot of expected value, though that, of course, is not a guarantee of a victory tonight.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.
