Wednesday has a compressed featured-slate, focusing on the first seven matchups. The fun begins at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like superstar Luka Doncic and plenty of plays from the Raptors, Pistons, Grizzlies and Hornets.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Wednesday, March 13
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Luka Doncic: Mavericks vs Warriors
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 69.86 | FanDuel: 65.75
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 20.5% | FanDuel: 19.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,800 | FanDuel: $12,800
Tonight it is pretty straightforward at the top, with Luke Doncic getting seven more fantasy points on his median projection over Nikola Jokic. Of course we saw a similar difference on Monday and the Toronto Raptors, playing shorthanded, ended up pushing the Nuggets for the majority of the game. That led to a MASSIVE 95 point fantasy effort from The Joker. That outcome of course is in play tonight, but Doncic is till the preferred option.
Doncic was no slouch on Monday as he had 60 fantasy points, along with his seventh-consecutive triple-double. For the season, Doncic is leading the league with 34.6 points per game, while being just a tick short of a triple-double, with 9.1 rebounds and 9.9 assists per appearance. The Golden State defense has improved with the return of Draymond Green after his second suspension, but they do not have anyone who is going to be overly bothersome for Doncic.
Daniel Gafford has seen a resurgence in his fantasy production since being traded to the Mavericks and he has started the last three games, while putting up 30-plus fantasy points in three of the last four. That makes him an interesting play on DraftKings ($5,000) for all slates and formats.
Stephen Curry remains out, so Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson and Jonathan Kuminga all remain in play on FanDuel and DraftKings with 10% or higher projected popularity. Chris Paul enters the mix on the evening sub-slate as well as being a tournament differentiator. He made a foray into the 40 fantasy point plateau for the first time since Dec. 30 and is averaging nearly 40 fantasy points in his two games since moving into the starting lineup. That was against a San Antonio Spurs defense that is comparable to Dallas.
Bruce Brown Jr.: Raptors at Pistons
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 29.12 | FanDuel: 28.85
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 48.3% | FanDuel: 67.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,100 | FanDuel: $5,100
RJ Barrett is away from the team attending to a personal matter, which thins things out with Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl and Chris Boucher all likely to miss the remainder of the season with their respective injuries.
Immanuel Quickley (hip) and Gary Trent Jr. (groin) each missed the last game and are currently questionable for tonight. If this duo suits up, they are in the mix for tournaments.
That has Bruce Brown Jr. and Kelly Olynyk projecting as two of the most rostered players on the slate, with Brown actually taking top honors on the main DFS sites. Detroit has a pitiful defense, so this pair of former Pistons are popping up as priority in all formats tonight.
From the Detroit side, Jalen Duren should own the boards tonight and anything less than a double-double should be considered a disappointment. Simone Fontecchio took advantage of a spot start on Monday, with Ausar Thompson (asthma) sidelined. If he remains with the first five, he is a steady salary saver in the mid-tier range.
Cade Cunningham has been outstanding over the last 10 games, averaging 3.0 minutes and 18.7 field goal attempts with a 48.1 conversion rate and a 43.8% success rate on 7.3 3-point attempts. This has resulted in 25.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.9 assists and 0.9 combined blocks and steals. He has nine games of 40-plus and four with 50 or more fantasy points in this span.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Charlotte Hornets
This is a back-to-back for the Grizzlies, who beat the 109-97 Washington Wizards last night. Whomever suits up for the Grizzlies is going to be a worthwhile fantasy play, but that information may not be available until just before tip off. Jaren Jackson Jr. (quad) and Vince Williams Jr. (knee), each missed the last game, though if they are back in the starting lineup, they are priority plays. If this duo is out, then going back to Gregory “GG” Jackson and Santi Aldama is fine, even though that duo dropped duds last night.
Luke Kennard and John Konchar are neutral options, who gain appeal if Jackson or Williams are out. Jordan Goodwin rattled off a fine “Remember Me?!” game against the Wizards and if he is in the starting lineup tonight, he is a DFS darling to target. Keep in mind that if he is not starting, he is likely to site as he only has a few games remaining before the team would need to convert his 2-way contract.
On the Charlotte side, Tre Mann has missed the last three games, so if he returns, Vasilije Micic is likely to see his fantasy production directly impacted. Miles Bridges, Nick Richards and rookie Brandon Miller are the three “safest” options if Mann returns.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Bam Adebayo looks like someone to target in the sports wagering market. The under for his 10.5 rebounds prop is currently available at odds of -120 on bet365, while being available at -125 on Caesars and BetMGM.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can easily take advantage of outliers in a situation such as this, since getting the best number can easily bring a 7% difference for this wager.
Per the true odds of -132 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a respectable 4.3% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Adebayo projected for 35.6 minutes and 10.95 rebounds. While this is slightly the 10.5 threshold, keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection. This is also demonstrated in the 57% projected win probability.
In his last nine games, Adebayo has more than 11 rebounds only once, with two other games of 10 rebounds. Denver has been just outside the top-five rebounding teams all season and with the likely slower pace in this matchup, there are several factors conspiring against Adebayo and the over.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by PrizePicks – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match AND – ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium! Full details here.
