Sunday NBA has an early two-game slate with a 2 p.m. ET first tip on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Domantas Sabonis. We will also have to monitor the availability of Jimmy Butler. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Sunday, February 11
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Sacramento Kings
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 55.29 | FanDuel: 54.55
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 53.9% | FanDuel: 20.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $11,500
Today is a brief in-and-out slate with the games tipping off at 2 p.m. ET and 3 p.m. ET. Jimmy Butler (personal) is questionable in the first game, while Jaden Springer (ankle) and Xavier Tillman (knee) will not be taking the court for Boston.
Oklahoma City played Saturday afternoon, but at this time the only players on the injury report are Bismack Biyombo, who was signed yesterday, and Gordon Hayward (calf), who is expected to make his Thunder debut after the All-Star Break.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having a phenomenal season, building on last year’s breakout campaign. Currently he is behind only Nikola Jokic (-200) in the NBA MVP odds with a +250 line. Of course, that is because reigning NBA MVP Joel Embiid is injured, but he is still ahead of Luka Doncic (+500) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+750).
The 25-year-old was First-Team All-NBA last year, so this is not a complete surprise, but it is impressive that he is leading the league in steals with 2.2 per game. His 31.0 points and 5.6 rebounds are close to career highs, while his 6.5 assists and 57.7% effective field goal rate are personal bests. The Thunder are 3.5-point home favorites with a projected team total of 121.5, which is a tick above their regular season average of 120.6 (fourth best in the league).
Dallas crushed Oklahoma City yesterday as the Mavericks cruised at home to a 146-111 victory. That did allow the starters to have an easier day for the Thunder, with Gilgeous-Alexander (29 minutes), Jalen Williams (27), Chet Holmgren (22) and Luguentz Dort (18) being held out for most of the second half. Williams and Holmgren are good targets this afternoon as they have the clearest path to 30 minutes.
Dort typically gets to that level of run as well, but he has wildly inconsistent fantasy production, as he is usually focusing on defense and doing the dirty work on offense rather than looking for his own shots. While he is a good defender, he does not generate an abundance of steals or blocks, with his 1.5 “stocks” per game this season being his career high. Over his last 10 games, he has one performance of more than 19 fantasy points, with four in single digits.
The other player who is a trap is Josh Giddey. While he is a starter, he is far from guaranteed to have a closing role in tight games, and coach Mark Daigneault seems content to play him in the 22- to 25-minute range, even though he is a starter with a versatile skill set.
Domantas Sabonis: Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 51.23 | FanDuel: 50.72
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 29.7% | FanDuel: 21.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,900 | FanDuel: $10,500
This afternoon, Domantas Sabonis is the only other player outside of SGA who has a median projection of 50-plus fantasy points, and he is barely clearing that benchmark.
On Saturday evening, the Kings crushed the Denver Nuggets 135-106 in Sacramento, with Sabonis racking up his 16th triple-double of the season with 17 points, 17 rebounds and 10 assists in 30.5 minutes.
In the two prior meetings this season between these two teams, Sabonis averaged 39.1 minutes, 17.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, 10.0 assists and 1.5 combined blocks and steals. The Kings won both of these games, all three last season and eight straight, since losing in OKC back on November 12, 2021. This game could be a little chippy today.
The Stokastic tools are high on Keegan Murray today. In the four games prior to Saturday, where he dropped 17 points on 6 of 11 (54.5%) from the field, the second-year forward had been in a dreadful slump, connecting on just 30.8% of his field goal attempts. The fourth overall selection in the 2022 NBA Draft averaged 45.3% last year and 46.3% this year, so he hopefully is breaking out of the doldrums with some wind in his sails.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
If Jimmy Butler misses this game, then that opens up additional opportunities and minutes for Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson and Jaime Jaquez. If he plays, well he is a strong option since he tends to get up for big games and these two squads have been entangled in postseason battles for years. Terry Rozier has assumed the lead guard duties and he gets a fun “Remember Me?!” spot against some former teammates.
Caleb Martin and Kevin Love are roster-fillers who have steady, though not overly spectacular roles. This has both with reasonable salaries and with a little luck, either or both could “return profit” on today’s rates.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the core Boston plays on a game-to-game basis and that is true again today. Derrick White continues to be solid and is meshing well with Jrue Holiday in the backcourt. Kristaps Porzingis is a wild card on today’s short slate.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Jrue Holiday is someone to look at in the sports wagering market for the under on his 4.5 rebounds prop, which is currently available at odds of -+120 on DraftKings.
This is a good example that demonstrates the power of letting OddsShopper do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets.
The next best odds at most books are in the +105 to +100 range, and while those are still “plus money” opportunities, that is still a 2% to 3% drop in the expected value of this wager.
We can see that several books are at -105 to -107, so it pays to be a savvy shopper!
Per the true odds of +120 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a stellar 5% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Holiday projected for 35.2 minutes and 5.1 rebounds. That median projection is higher than the 4.5 threshold target, but keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.
Holiday is actually averaging a career-best 6.0 rebounds per game in his first season with the Celtics, however, over his last 19 games he has averaged 31.4 minutes with 4.8 rebounds. This wager is all about getting the +120 line on DraftKings, so move quickly as it could easily fall back in line with the other sports books.
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