Wednesday has a gigantic featured slate, with all the fun getting underway at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic. We will also have to monitor the availability of Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson, Myles Turner and Cade Cunningham. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Wednesday, February 14
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Luka Doncic: Mavericks vs. Spurs
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 64.79 | FanDuel: 61.51
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 10.2% | FanDuel: 2.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12100 | FanDuel: $12800
Tonight should be a wild tournament environment as there are already several tremendous discount dandies available and we should expect more to appear throughout the afternoon heading toward tip-off.
The main DFS sites are going with a 12-game featured slate, which means this will be one of the biggest we see all year. There are then three games on Thursday before the league moves onto the All-Star Break. Expect a few surprise spots tonight where veterans get a bonus night off.
By the time it is all said and done, the expectation will be that Luka Doncic will end up on close to one-third of all lineups. He is in the midst of a career campaign and on the shortlist to garner his first NBA MVP. The Mavericks are 11-point home favorites against San Antonio, but we have seen the Spurs frisky at times, with rookie Victor Wembenyama even better than advertised. The 19-year-old is coming off a triple-double with points, rebounds and blocks — which he got in just under 30 minutes.
Dallas has to take this game seriously, as the Mavericks are only the seventh seed, despite their current five-game winning streak. Doncic should be able to mess around with a triple-double tonight and Kyrie Irving is very much in play for tournaments. There are ample center options up and down the salary list, so it is hard to endorse Dallas’ recent acquisition, Daniel Gafford, despite him already fitting in with Doncic and Irving.
Wembanyama is in play for the Spurs, with Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Tre Jones rounding out a quartet of tournament targets.
Nikola Jokic: Nuggets vs. Kings
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 65.99 | FanDuel: 63.08
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 36.9% | FanDuel: 17.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,300 | FanDuel: $12,000
Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are questionable for tonight, which means everything will run through Nikola Jokic. The two-time NBA MVP is looking for a third trophy for his mantle and he has been deserving with his performances thus far.
Sacramento is on a back-to-back, having lost in Phoenix last night and the Kings now are playing at elevation. Still, Denver is only favored by five, due to the potential absence of Murray.
A triple-double is in store tonight for the Joker, but with Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon all available more than they were last year, he has “only” 14 on the season. Last year he had 29, which was more than Doncic (10) and Domantas Sabonis (14) combined. Speaking of Sabonis, he recorded his league-leading 18th triple-double last night and is on track to be the rebound king for a second consecutive season. Even with this lofty level of production, he is only a neutral tournament option tonight, with so many of the superstars out in force.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
Jimmy Butler (personal) is away from the team, and both Terry Rozier and Josh Richardson are going to miss the next couple of weeks. This is a back-to-back for Miami, so the salary algorithms did not have time to adjust the secondary players. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro were popular last night, but there are better ways to allocate salary tonight. This duo is viable in tournaments and with most gamers coming to the same conclusion on how to construct lineups, they will be underrepresented in tournaments.
Nikola Jovic is a terrific discount dandy, as is his teammate, Duncan Robinson. This duo was in the starting lineup last night and helped lead the Heat to a surprise victory over the Bucks in Milwaukee. Both have multi-position eligibility, and with Jovic having access to the power forward designation, he stands out on a slate with several “center-only” punts and top targets.
Philadelphia is also running shorthanded with Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington and De’Anthony Melton out. Kyle Lowry is not yet back in basketball shape, so the favorite son of the City of Brotherly Love will be in street clothes tonight.
Buddy Hield has stepped in to help fill the offensive void, but his salary is starting to elevate. Of course, this is not the same vaunted Heat defense with so many regulars out. Tyrese Maxey, Cameron Payne and Kelly Oubre Jr. are also in the mix as tournament differentiators.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Paolo Banchero is someone to look at in the sports wagering market for the under on his 6.5 assists prop, which is currently available at odds of -111 on Caesars Sportsbook.
This is a good example that demonstrates the power of letting OddsShopper do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets.
The next best odds at the most popular books are in the -125 to -135 range, with sharp book Pinnacle down to a -146 line, which is absolutely punitive. It pays to be a savvy shopper!
Per the true odds of -126 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has an outstanding 6% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Banchero projected for 34.8 minutes and 5.02 assists. That median projection is below the 5.5 target, but keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.
While Banchero has posted six or more assists in his last eight games, this is a back-to-back for the Orlando Magic, and they will be taking on the New York Knicks in a game with a paltry 211.5-point total. OG Anunoby is still out for the Knicks, but with both teams willing to play slow, we are counting on a lack of volume to help keep Banchero under half a dozen helpers tonight.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by PrizePicks – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match AND – ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium! Full details here.
