Tuesday brings the NBA DFS world a six-game featured slate, tipping off at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Miles Bridges must feel like the last man standing, with three starters out of the lineup and there are some intriguing playing time situations, providing some steady value options. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Tuesday, January 2
Miles Bridges: Charlotte Hornets at Sacramento Kings
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 40.59 | FanDuel: 39.9
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 15.5% | FanDuel: 41.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $8,100 | FanDuel: $7,800
LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams remain out with their respective injuries. Terry Rozier is likely to miss another game due to illness. That means Miles Bridges is likely to see additional usage and offensive opportunities. He looks particularly good on FanDuel since the blue site has also granted him small forward eligibility and assigned a lower salary than DraftKings.
Ish Smith should be getting another spot start, and while the 14-year veteran who has played for 13 franchises does not have much of a fantasy ceiling, he is an outstanding salary-saving option on FanDuel ($3,700) and a neutral play on DraftKings ($4,300) — but with more appeal on the late-slate.
Trayce Jackson-Davis: Golden State Warriors vs. Orlando Magic
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 26.96 | FanDuel: 27.57
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 62.4% | FanDuel: 35.5%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $4,600 | FanDuel: $5,600
Coach Steve Kerr has said he will keep Trayce Jackson-Davis and Chris Paul in the starting lineup for tonight’s game, and while each player is likely to produce around 30 fantasy points, the salary algorithms have not accounted for their new starting status. That means each player has a strong chance at 30 minutes, barring foul trouble or ineffective play, which is around a 15-20% increase over their typical minutes as a reserve where things can fluctuate more when neither was seeing much run for the first half of the first quarter. That may not seem like a lot, but in NBA DFS where court time is king, this solidifies the floor minutes expectation, removing some of the downside.
Joel Embiid: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Chicago Bulls
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 62.21 | FanDuel: 61.52
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 22.1% | FanDuel: 12.3%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $12,500
Joel Embiid is back after missing four games with an ankle injury. The Cameroonian has the highest median fantasy point projection for the slate, but there is added volatility in his range of outcomes tonight. The first is of course conditioning concerns after missing 11 games and the other is a lofty 15.5-point spread favoring the 76ers to crush the depleted Chicago Bulls.
Embiid has been impressive from a fantasy standpoint this season, with 60-plus points in 12 of 13 games right before his injury. The lone outlier was a 58-fantasy point effort, which is crazy. That is what his salary is based on tonight, and even though he has been amazing on a per-minute basis, he may not need to play more than 30 minutes tonight.
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Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Jayson Tatum looks good in the sports wagering market with the under on his 8.5 rebounds prop, which is currently available at odds of +105. Per the true odds of -108 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a terrific 7% expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
It is crucial to take advantage of OddsShopper to look at all the available lines since that can easily be worth another 2% to 3% for your ROI, even on perfectly neutral bets, based on how the different books value things. To demonstrate this very concept, look below — you can see that several books are offering this bet in the plus money, while Pinnacle, a sharp book, is at -125 — a number that is downright punitive by comparison.
NBA Bet Pro has Tatum projected for 36.5 minutes and 8.83 rebounds. In his last 15 games, Tatum has corralled nine or more caroms just four times. He has landed on eight boards three times, so getting this wager at plus money is key.
Rooting for unders may not be as fun as rooting for overs, but that is where the line value is more often than not when it comes to player props, as the sportsbooks look to use psychology against casual bettors.
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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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