Sunday brings an early six-game featured slate with a 6 p.m. ET lock time on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Tyrese Maxey, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Luka Doncic and other recommended options.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Sunday, March 31
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Tyrese Maxey: 76ers at Raptors
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 48.28 | FanDuel: 46.51
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 27.3% | FanDuel: 36.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $8,700
Absolutely play Luka Doncic if at all possible. Now that we have taken care of the obvious, let’s look at a few other scenarios.
Philadelphia has learned that there is a good chance of Joel Embiid returning for the final week or so of the regular season to get ready for the playoffs. He will likely take it easy as he regains conditioning after dealing with a meniscus procedure on his left knee, but that should be a nice boost for the team now.
The 76ers have lost five of their last six games, including the last two by a grand total of 4 points. They have eight games remaining on the schedule, and tonight is one of the three easy opponents. It is hard to see the Sixers climbing out of the Play-In Tournament, but it is not impossible as the fifth through eighth teams are separated by just four games, with Philadelphia currently on the bottom rung.
Toronto is a mess, and while RJ Barrett (personal) is reconditioning after an eight-game absence, the whole Jontay Porter mess is hanging over the team, along with injuries to Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, Chris Boucher, Ochai Agbaji and D.J. Carton, and Immanuel Quickley is reconditioning as well.
That has Tyrese Maxey and company installed as 11.5-point favorites north of the border, but the team still has to make it happen. Over the last 10 games, the Raptors have allowed 119.0 points per 100 possessions, which is among the bottom 5 teams in the league and less than a bucket away from having the worst defensive efficiency in this stretch. Maxey produces 1.07 fantasy points with Embiid on the court and 1.20 when rolling solo. Anything less than 50 fantasy points tonight will be considered a disappointment.
This matchup is good enough that Tobias Harris, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul Reed, Mo Bamba and Buddy Hield all hold tournament value on DraftKings. Harris and Hield are the better plays on FanDuel, along with Kyle Lowry in a coveted “Remember Me?!” spot.
Toronto is still in flux depending on the return of Barrett, but if Javon Freeman-Liberty remains with the first five for a third consecutive game, he is a fine discount dandy.
Anthony Davis: Lakers at Nets
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 53.65 | FanDuel: 54.34
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 10.4% | FanDuel: 3.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,300 | FanDuel: $11,600
Anthony Davis and LeBron James were wildly disappointing on Friday as the Lakers dropped a dud against the Pacers, losing 109-90 less than a week after these teams combined for 295 points in regulation.
Los Angeles is 1.5 games behind Sacramento and two behind Phoenix, which is far from an insurmountable chasm to get into the top half of the Play-In Tournament.
Brooklyn is mediocre on defense and a little below league average when it comes to pace of play over the last fortnight. The Lakers hold a major rebounding edge in the frontcourt and should be able to control the tempo to a level that suits them. They are 6-point road-favorites and with three stops left on their East Coast swing (Toronto and Washington); they need to drop the hammer and lock up a trio of victories. This duo falls into the luxury play bucket, but there should be enough punt options to work them into a fair number of lineups.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
San Antonio Spurs vs. Golden State Warriors
Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan were ruled out yesterday with injuries. That means enhanced usage for Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell and Tre Jones, and minutes should trickle to Malaki Branham, Cedi Osman and Julian Champagnie. While the Spurs are 9-point home dogs, we should still see solid minutes from Wembanyama, and coming off a surprise upset of the Knicks, coach Gregg Popovich allowed the French phenom to play 38 minutes in a game that saw him drop 40 points and 80 fantasy points as the Spurs upset New York 130-126.
Golden State is suddenly at risk of falling out of the Play-In Tournament, as the Houston Rockets have rattled off 11 consecutive victories and are now within a game of the Warriors for the final slot. Dario Saric (knee) is out and both Klay Thompson (knee) and Jonathan Kuminga (knee) are questionable, with Thompson sitting on Friday and Kuminga missing the last two games.
Once the dust settles, there could be some favorable fantasy point-per-dollar options, depending on which, if either, of this duo is available. Stephen Curry, Chris Paul and Draymond Green are solid in all scenarios. Andrew Wiggins and Trace Jackson-Davis will get a boost if Kuminga remains out, and if Thompson sits, there will be trickledown production to both Brandon Podziemski and Moses Moody off the bench.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Gary Trent Jr. is someone to target in the with sports wagering market with the under on his 4.5 rebounds prop.
Currently this wager is available at -+125 on bet365 and at +120 on BetMGM and ESPNBet, which is a great value when comparing it to the -103 on Unibet, BetRivers and SugarHouse.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.
Per the true odds of +110 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has an intriguing 7.2% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Trent projected for 32.5 minutes and 3.77 rebounds. This projection is just above tonight’s targeted threshold but still does not account for variable outcomes. The 48% win rate gives us a good indication that, on a long time horizon, this is exactly the type of wager we are looking for — but only at +110 or better odds.
Across his last 11 games, Trent is averaging 32.9 minutes and 3.7 rebounds, with four or more on six occasions. In this stretch he has six, five (2), four (3) and three (2), so this wager is likely to come down to the wire.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show starting at 4:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.
