NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Maverick Mania! (June 12)

In addition to Doncic clearly not at full health, Kristaps Porzingis has sustained a tear to the tissue holding the tendons to his left ankle. In a full simulation moment, this is a similar injury to what plagued Curt Schilling in the “bloody sock” game. What is unknown is the severity of the injury to Porzingis, if he can cause further damage or if there is even anything that could alleviate/stabilize things enough for him to take the court tonight. That doesn’t even get into his potential effectiveness. Porzingis has said he will do whatever it takes to play, and coach Joe Mazzulla has said it will be up to the medical staff. For those wondering, it was his right calf that sidelined him for the majority of the playoffs.

So why bring up Porzingis in the Dallas section? Well, in his 44 minutes of action, Boston has a +25 point differential, which is also the combined winning margin for the Celtics in the first two games. So by the transitive properties inherent in mathematics, the C’s have a neutral plus/minus when Porzingis is off the court.

Wrapping up with Luka, on DraftKings the 50% salary tax to place him in the multiplier slot is daunting, but it will be less so if Porzingis is out and Luke Kornet resumes his role as the backup pivot for Boston. This also means the best rim protector for the Celtics will be off the court, which should help — though not fully open up — the lob potential for Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford. Each will see a 10% to 15% boost over the baseline production assigned to them for Games 1 and 2 if Porzingis is out. This will be in the form of less foul-trouble risk and one fewer elite rebounder to battle in the paint.

Kyrie Irving has not had a lot of luck against Boston since angering the Celtic mystic and “Lucky the Leprechaun” after his moment when he tromped on the Boston logo in a Game 4 win while he was with Brooklyn. The Nets did wrap up that series in the next game, but following that victory, Irving has not seen a win against his former team in his last 12 tries.

Irving and Doncic have each had to deal with a pair of All-NBA Second-Team defenders, plus a tough frontcourt. Irving has been doing everything except putting the biscuit in the basket, though that is a problem in the DFS world. He has missed all 10 of his 3-point attempts (five in each game) while going just 13 of 37 (35.1%) from the field, with 2.5 rebounds, four assists, 14.0 points and one steal per game. He feels like a trap, but, of course, that is what the field thinks as well, making him a differentiation option and a potential slate-breaker if he has a foray to the 40-fantasy point plateau.

In Game 2, P.J. Washington contributed 17 points and seven rebounds, trailing only Doncic (32) in the scoring column. He has splashed only 1 of 8 (12.5%) 3-pointers, so if he can find his range on his home court, there is some readily attainable upside for his fantasy baseline. The minutes continue to be there, and he has been decent on defense and the glass. Washington’s salary held firm on both DraftKings ($6,200) and FanDuel ($10,000), and while he has not cracked the 30-fantasy point threshold in some time, he continues to be close and is one of the steadier Dallas options.

The challenge for the Mavericks is that coach Jason Kidd has not been able to coax anyone else into stepping up this series. That could change a little tonight if Porzingis is indeed out and Lively or Gafford are able to cobble together a few defensive stats with double-digit points and half a dozen rebounds.

Jaden Hardy did not get his expected stint at the end of the first quarter, start of the second, filling in for Doncic and Irving. Instead, it was a shakeup that saw Dante Exum as the first reserve guard off the bench to start the second quarter. Coach Kidd maneuvered things around, with Josh Green joining starter Derrick Jones Jr. as the nominal “off guards,” while Doncic and Irving each took the helm while the other was on the bench. Hardy saw two minutes late in the third quarter spelling Irving, but it was Exum who had 10.5 total minutes for the lead among the backcourt reserves.

The DFS industry is not in agreement with what will transpire tonight, and it could only be Jason Kidd who has a lean on which guard will approach double-digit minutes. There could also be an even split or Tim Hardaway Jr. could work his way into the fray. If this uncertainty remains, it will be an exploitable situation for the savvy gamers, though we will not know who was wrong or right until the final horn sounds.

Jones and Green will get their minutes at the wing, with Maximilian Kleber likely nabbing a mix of power forward and center run. Kleber had 19 minutes in Game 1, making his only shot while also handing out an assist and adding one block. Game 2 saw him play 16 minutes and miss all four field goal attempts but corral a pair of errant caroms. He could see 8 to 10 fantasy points with even a little luck or continue to crush the hopes and dreams of his supporters.

Jones went from 29 to 32 minutes between the first two tilts, and while he did pop off for 11 points, three rebounds, two assists, a block and a steal, that was his high-water mark. Green slid from 20 to 14 minutes, though there is some solace with him getting four field goal attempts in each game. Hardaway went from eight to zero minutes, with Dwight Powell going from five to zero, so the only certainty with the Dallas reserves is exponential volatility.