NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Luka Doncic + Wild Cards! (Nov. 16)

Saturday’s NBA featured-slate locks at 8:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Victor Wembanyama and value options that will be solidified with additional breaking news.

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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Saturday, Nov. 16

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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks

It certainly was not for a lack of trying, with a total of seven points being the aggregate losing margin for this trio of tilts. Kyrie Irving (back) missed the game against the Jazz, though the 32-year-old is off the injury report. During this downturn, Doncic has averaged 40.4 minutes and 24.0 field goal attempts per game, with a strong 47.9% conversion rate. This has resulted in 30.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 1.8 combined blocks and steals. These rates are all in line with Doncic’s season average and while they are below each of his last two campaigns, he also is shooting a career low 42.8% from the field. Even a slight uptick in his effective field goal rate will have him back to his stellar baseline in no time flat.

The Mavericks are double-digit home favorites, with San Antonio having fallen to the visiting Los Angeles Lakers, 120-115 Friday night. It will be interesting to see what transpires with Victor Wembanyama as he played 34 minutes in the loss. He has reached 34 minutes four times this season, with 35.2 being the high-water mark. In his last two back-to-back game sets, the French phenom played 27.3 and 33.6 minutes at the end of October, with 24.7 minutes and 32.3 minutes in his early-November doubleup.

San Antonio next plays on Tuesday, so having a 32 minute projection for Wembanyama is reasonable. He could see fewer, particularly if this is a lopsided game in the fourth quarter. Of course he could also push through 34 minutes if the Spurs have a chance to collect their seventh win of the season.

Julian Champagnie and Stephon Castle are actually the two most popular San Antonio options on DraftKings and FanDuel, though neither is eclipsing a 20% popularity projection. They are value placeholders, who may fall back into obscurity if any Saturday shenanigans occur with surprise scratches across the eight teams on the docket.

Old man Chris Paul notched a double-double and he is in play as a tournament differentiator, though the upside is not particularly enthralling. Devin Vassell has played only four games this season and there is a decent chance he gets a rest tonight, that would push more minutes to fellow reserve Keldon Johnson and potentially starter Harrison Barnes. Jeremy Sochan remains out and Tre Jones (ankle) is not slated to return until Tuesday at the earliest.

Turning the attention back to the Mavericks, Naji Marshall is questionable with an illness and PJ Washington is bordering on doubtful, having missed the last five games with a knee issue. Gamers already are aware that Doncic and Irving are the gravitational magnets pulling in most of the usage, but if Marshall joins Washington on the sidelines, Klay Thompson could have a chance for his second 30 fantasy point game of the season, with the first being in the opener against the Spurs.

Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II are risky plays because of their proclivity for collecting fouls, with Gafford getting five in just 18.5 minutes in the first game against Wembanyama this season, while Lively had four in 27.8 minutes. Last spring, Gafford had four fouls in each of the final two regular season games versus Wemby, while Lively had four and three. This is important information to consider, with the shallow Saturday player pool.

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Last year Fox led the league with 2.0 steals per game, just edging out Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for that honor. He also averaged a career high 26.6 points per game, which he has surpassed with 27.3 this season, along with a personal-best 5.2 rebounds per game. The Kings are double-digit favorites, but considering they are still short-handed, there are several DFS options.

Malik Monk (ankle) will be out through Thanksgiving, while DeMar DeRozan is at risk of missing a second-consecutive game with a sore back that ended his night in the third quarter on Wednesday against Phoenix. If DeRozan plays, he should be considered mostly healthy and worthy of consideration as a tournament option. This is the Saturday nightcap, with the other games locking 90 minutes prior, so be sure to have a contingency plan if this news is still up in the air as the third game tips off.

Domantas Sabonis has been dealing with back soreness, though he did keep his double-double streak intact, getting his 12th last night. He also has 40-plus fantasy points in 12 of his 13 appearances, with only Wednesday’s drubbing of the injury-riddled Suns falling shy of that threshold. Three of these games have seen him make a foray into the 50 fantasy point plateau, which demonstrates a solid floor, albeit with semi-muted upside. He played nearly 40 minutes last night and would be a rest candidate in the final frame of this game it lopsided.

Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray are better options if DeRozan is out, since it would give both more access to offensive opportunities and Murray would have one less rebounding teammate to contend with. Trey Lyles had 41 minutes off the bench and if DeRozan is out, he would be in the mix as a discount dandy.

Walker Kessler (hip) has been ruled out for a third-straight game, while Lauri Markkanen is questionable after getting bonked in the face on Thursday against Dallas, ending his night with five minutes left in the game. If he plays, consider him a full-go and someone who can provide tournament differentiation, particularly if he carries the questionable tag into the first games on the slate.

Jordan Clarkson is the most popular player on DraftKings ($5,100) after the first projection run, though he isn’t even in the top-25 on FanDuel ($6,000). Rookie Kyle Filipowski will probably be on around one-third of all lineups across the main DFS sites and he saw a spot start on Thursday. Because of the various injuries, he has made four starts through 10 games, though he has played more than 25 minutes just once.

John Collins has moved into the starting lineup as the replacement for Kessler, averaging 34.9 minutes and 19.5 field goal attempts per game, with a 56.4% conversion rate. This has resulted in an eye-popping 28.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 3.0 combined blocks and steals. Utah will need the savvy veteran to deal with Sabonis in the paint on both ends of the court.

Collin Sexton and Keyonte George are viable as tournament differentiation options, though both are very scoring dependent for their fantasy production.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

For those of you who hate to see unders recommended, we have an over today with Stephon Castle and his 3.5 assists prop.

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This approach effectively pits the sportsbooks against each other, revealing that BetRivers, SugarHouse and Unibet have posted +133 odds that are well above those offered by other major operators.

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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Castle projected for 28.5 minutes and 3.46 assists, which is right in line with the wager. Of course there are no partial assists and the combination of the “True Odds” of +126 and a 44% win rate show that there is a 2.5% expected ROI.

Over the last five games, the rookie has averaged 30.5 minutes and 5.0 assists per game, with totals of five, five, six, three and six. He has been helping out as a secondary facilitator to Chris Paul, with Tre Jones and Jeremy Sochan both injured.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Catch all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show today at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, where we’ll dive into all the key elements of tonight’s slate.