Saturday brings us a compact five-game featured slate locking at 7:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Luka Doncic, Donte DiVincenzo, Alex Caruso and Ayo Dosunmu — as well as keeping tabs on the availability of Anthony Davis and LeBron James.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Saturday, February 3
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Luka Doncic: Mavericks vs. Bucks
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 72.83 | FanDuel: 68.9
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 50.1% | FanDuel: 22.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,700 | FanDuel: $12,600
Sometimes it just is that dramatic: Luka Doncic is projected for 10 more fantasy points than Giannis Antetokounmpo on FanDuel, increasing to a dozen on DraftKings with the milestone bonuses for double and triple-doubles (plus turnovers costing fewer points).
Playing both in the same lineup is quite feasible tonight. Gamers taking that approach are only falling six points shy of the overall “optimal” lineup with the current median projections.
In a twist, the best lineup without either superstar is within a point of the one featuring both on DraftKings, while the “empty” roster on FanDuel is two median points better on FanDuel.
Doncic is now among the elite fantasy options, averaging 61.5 FanDuel and 63.9 DraftKings points per game. He has career-highs with 24 field goal attempts, including 10.3 from behind the arc, with an above-average 37.5% conversion rate, 34.7 points. 9.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.6 blocks. Only his 8.6 rebounds per game is not a personal best, but it is right in line with his career average. Furthermore, the last 14 games without Kyrie Irving, Doncic is averaging 40.5 minutes per game with nearly 74 fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Though he is not officially out yet, Irving is doubtful and likely to miss a fifth consecutive game with a thumb injury. Dante Exum is missing his third straight with a knee injury, and rookie Derek Lively II is all but assured to miss a second game after suffering a broken nose. That means Richaun Holmes will be dusted off and back in the rotation, with Josh Green working as a “glue guy” doing a little bit of everything while Tim Hardaway Jr. serves as the secondary scoring option to Doncic.
Holmes has fallen off the radar, making just three starts over the last season and change, while appearing in 64 combined games with Dallas and Sacramento. He is still capable of producing a fantasy point per minute, but his ineffective defense has banished the 30-year-old veteran into the shadow realm. Make no mistake, he is one of the best discount dandies on the docket, even at FanDuel, where we are allowed to roster just one “center-only” player.
Over the last 15 games, Dallas has allowed 120.4 points per 100 possessions, while Milwaukee is not much better at 118.6. Both teams are also playing at a top-10 pace during this stretch, which has led to a lofty 245.5 projected game total. The change from Jrue Holiday to Damian Lillard has dramatically impacted the defensive efficiency for the Bucks, who had the fourth-best defensive efficiency last year allowing just 110.9 points per 100 possessions. However, the offensive has improved from a middle-of-the-pack 114.3 rating to 120.1 this season, which is the third-best in the league.
Antetokounmpo is averaging 35.2 minutes per game, which is three more than last year and the most in his last six seasons. That has led to him averaging a career-high 57.9 FanDuel and 59.5 DraftKings fantasy points per game. Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez and Lillard warrant tournament consideration on DraftKings, with Lopez falling out of the picture on FanDuel.
Donte DiVincenzo: Knicks vs. Lakers
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 39.53 | FanDuel: 38.05
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 41.5% | FanDuel: 36.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $7,500
The Knickerbockers are contenders in the Eastern Conference, so losing Julius Randle (dislocated shoulder) for the next few weeks is devastating news. However, various members of the rotation have stepped up over the last three games, with Donte DiVincenzo being the biggest fantasy contributor.
In this stretch, he is averaging 39.7 minutes and 23.3 field goal attempts, including 15.3 from 3-point range with a 39.1% success rate.
DiVincenzo’s two steals and 0.7 blocks are likely to subside a bit, but he should maintain some combination of eight rebounds plus blocks as he continues to log heavy minutes. Jalen Brunson is the lead option for New York, but his salary already accounts for heavy minutes and what are essentially career numbers across the board for a second straight season. Brunson looks more favorable on FanDuel, projecting to be on one-third of all tournament rosters, while he is just over half that on DraftKings.
Quentin Grimes (knee) is also out, so that should solidify the minutes for swingman Josh Hart and combo-guard Miles McBride. The latter is a terrifying fantasy option since he is really a point guard in name only and typically only produces by putting the biscuit in the basket. However, at just $3,400 on DraftKings and with eligibility across the backcourt, he is a punt option.
Randle’s absence opens up additional rotations in the frontcourt, with Isaiah Hartenstein and Precious Achiuwa the main beneficiaries. If OG Anunoby misses a fourth game with his elbow issue, that should push minutes toward Jericho Sims, but that is a dicey fantasy proposition and costs a center slot. If Anunoby plays, he is not particularly interesting, other than making the defense stronger, which impacts the Lakers.
Anthony Davis and LeBron James sat out on Thursday in Boston, so naturally, the LA understudies knocked off the Celtics, 114-105. Los Angeles lost Jarred Vanderbilt to a foot injury, which is expected to sideline him through the All-Star Break. If both Davis and James play, they are fine tournament targets. If one sits, the other becomes a priority play. If both sit, well that will turn the Lakers into the preeminent source of value.
Check out the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show on YouTube tonight at 6:30 p.m. for all of the latest updates and analysis.
Stokastic Hall of Fame Highlights
Want to start winning like our users? Sign up for a Stokastic subscription today!
NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
Sacramento Kings at Chicago Bulls
This is an interesting matchup, with the Sacramento Kings on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four days. They even have another on tap Monday in Cleveland. Last night, the Kings took care of business in Indiana, knocking off the Pacers, 133-122. Tonight, they are 2.5-point underdogs in the Windy City against the well-rested Bulls who last played on Wednesday.
Coach Mike Brown has the Kings running a tight rotation, with starters De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis seeing around 35 minutes per game, second-year forward Keegan Murray getting just shy of 33 and veteran Harrison Barnes at right around 30 minutes of run. Over his last nine starts, Kevin Huerter is averaging 33.2 minutes per game while key reserve Malik Monk has played less than 20 minutes in four of the last five games.
The Bulls have a middling defense, particularly with Williams on the sidelines, so Fox and Sabonis are in play as secondary tournament options. If one of the wings ends up out tonight, the other three mentioned in the preceding paragraph would elevate to being neutral tournament targets.
Going against Sacramento is always interesting since they give up fantasy production on all three levels of the court. Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan and Coby White each project within two fantasy points of each other, which has them with different levels of utility. Vucevic loses out on a fantasy point per dollar perspective among the “center-only” options, but he also has the best raw projection.
DeRozan is inside the top seven most popular fantasy options on both DraftKings, cresting all the way up to the third most favored play on the blue site. White is questionable with a sore ankle, but he should play tonight after a few days off. If he loses the injury designation, he should see an uptick in popularity and fantasy floor.
Finally, we have Alex Caruso, who is the most popular option on FanDuel at 54%. Backcourt-mate Ayo Dosunmu ranks third on DraftKings and is projected to be on 38.9% of all tournament rosters. That of course makes the inverse interesting, with this duo being direct-leverage to each other for tournaments.
Looking for more NBA DFS picks and advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NBA DFS Premium Package for access to our player projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
This wager for Trae Young is a good one to illustrate the power of OddsShopper, which helps you quickly find the best lines and odds across various sports books.
Tonight we can focus on the over 26.5 points prop for Young, which is currently available at odds of -105 on SuperBook. We can see that this wager had been posted for only four minutes at the time this screenshot was taken at 1:23 p.m. ET and is not likely to be available for long.
Looking at PointsBet and DraftKings, we can see the over 26.5 points is at a ridiculous -170, while on the other books, the threshold has been raised to 28.5 with a line that is 10% more expensive than SuperBook.
It is important to be nimble and have funds on a few different sites to capitalize on these market inefficiencies.
Per the true odds of -122 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a stellar 7% expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line on SuperBook, but it is just below breakeven when elevating the threshold to 28.5 points.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Ice Trae projected for 36.3 minutes and 28.18 points. That median projection is clearly favorable when compared to the line of 26.5 but not against the 28.5 threshold. Keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.
This is a back-to-back for the Hawks and Young logged 42.2 minutes on Friday, though in the prior game on Wednesday, he was needed for only 34.3 in an easy Atlanta victory against the Lakers. The 25-year-old has scored 27 or more points in 22 of 42 (52.4%) with two more of 26 points. The Warriors are on a back-to-back and the Hawks could be without Dejounte Murray who is questionable with a sore back. These are little edges that could land in favor of Young, making that over 26.5 points target one to grab while it is still available at the favorable value.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show starting at 6:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM– new users, use this link to receive $158 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5 ahead of Super Bowl 58! Full details here.
