Tuesday brings into play a seven-game featured slate locking at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Luka Doncic and Immanuel Quickley, with several pending injury situations. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA, MMA and NASCAR) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Tuesday, March 5
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Luka Doncic: Mavericks vs. Pacers
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 64.58 | FanDuel: 61.2
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 19.4% | FanDuel: 13.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12.200 | FanDuel: $12.700
Injuries and uncertainty are casting a long shadow across today’s slate, though most of this will be sorted out later in the day as the injury reports are updated.
Luka Doncic is listed as questionable with both a right ankle sprain. If he starts he should be considered a full-go and one of the most desirable top-shelf options in the player pool.
If Doncic is out, while that is a major moving part, it would move Kyrie Irving from solid tournament target to an outstanding option. This season in 836 minutes alongside Doncic, Irving is averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute. He sees a major bump to 1.47 fantasy points per minute when he is flying solo. Over the last 10 games, Indiana has allowed 116.9 points per 100 possessions, which is the sixth-worst defensive efficiency in the league during this stretch. These two teams also are playing at a top-10 pace, leading to the lofty 245.5 projected game total.
Tyrese Haliburton has struggled over the last four games, with an average of 31.3 minutes and 12.3 field goal attempts with a dreadful 26.5% conversion rate. This has resulted in 9.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 1.3 combined blocks and steals. Dallas has not been particularly effective on defense, so this looks like a second consecutive “get right” spot for Haliburton, who was at least semi-serviceable in San Antonio against the Spurs on Sunday. Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner are tertiary tournament options.
Immanuel Quickley: Raptors vs. Pelicans
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 39.62 | FanDuel: 37.51
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 9.3% | FanDuel: 20.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,000
Scottie Barnes is out with a fractured hand and it is likely he is done for the year, plus Jakob Poeltl (finger) and Bruce Brown Jr. (knee) are going to miss at least the next two games.
This is some dramatic lineup turnover, which means the new faces are going to be doing a lot of the heavy lifting for the remainder of the season.
Immanuel Quickley now has full control of the offense and while he has received an appropriate salary increase, he is still a strong option in the tier below the superstars. Over his last six games, Quickley is averaging 35.7 minutes and 16.5 field goal attempts with a 45.5% conversion rate. This has culminated in 21.5 points 6.0 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 1.6 combined blocks and steals. New Orleans has been improving on defense with most everyone healthy, but the minutes load for Quickley should balance that out for his fantasy prospects.
RJ Barrett and Kelly Olynyk are secondary options, who should continue to see elevated offensive opportunities, with Jordan Nwora an extreme punt option on DraftKings ($3,400) and to a lesser extent on FanDuel ($4,000).
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
Victor Wembanyama is on the injury report with a sore left shoulder. The rookie performed well in the two prior games against Houston, averaging 32 minutes with 18.0 points, 15.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 4.6 combined blocks and steals. Over his last eight games, the 20-year-old rookie is averaging 30.4 minutes and 17.0 field goal attempts with a 50.7% conversion rate. This has resulted in 24.6 points, 11.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists and a ridiculous 7.8 combined blocks and steals. Five of these games have resulted in 60 or more fantasy points. Wembanyama is a luxury play on FanDuel with his lofty $12,000 and 4.4% projected popularity. He is discounted by comparison on DraftKings ($10,700) and doubling the projected popularity.
If Wembanyama is out, then Zach Collins would become an intriguing tournament option if he moves into the first five. Houston has an average defense, which could be pushed if Wembanyama plays. That would improve the prospects of Tre Mann, Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson. If Julian Champagnie is out again, look to Malaki Branham if he receives a second spot start.
Alperen Sengun looks good on the main DFS sites, even though his play has fallen off a bit with the emergence of Jabari Smith. Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet form the core four targets from the Rockets.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Pascal Siakam continues to integrate into the Indiana offense, but his scoring production has been inconsistent. That has the under on his 22.5 points prop, as an intriguing wager. This is currently available at odds of -125 on Hard Rock.
This is a good example that demonstrates the power of letting OddsShopper do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets.
We can see that most of the books are in the -136 to -150 range, with “sharp” book Pinnacle all the way down to -158. Some books have lowered the milestone to 21.5, but anything “worse” than -110 would be a negative ROI situation.
Per the true odds of -139 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a strong 4.6% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Siakam projected for 33.1 minutes and 21.31 points, which is just below the 22.5 target, but keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.
Over his last 10 games, Siakam has tallied more than 23 points twice, landing on 23 once. Five of his games have seen him with less than 20 points. This is a great matchup against the Mavericks, but Siakam is not the primary offensive option.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by PrizePicks – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match AND – ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium! Full details here.
