Friday wraps up the workweek with a terrific 10-game slate, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET lock on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like LaMelo Ball and Giannis Antetokounmpo, along with a variety of secondary players as premium targets.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, Oct. 25
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
LaMelo Ball: Hornets at Hawks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 48.32 | FanDuel: 46.73
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 19.2% | FanDuel: 7.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings $9,300 | FanDuel: $10,100
LaMelo Ball was only able to stay healthy enough to participate in just 58 games over the last two seasons. In that time, he actually produced better numbers than he did during his sophomore campaign, when he was named to the All-Star team.
Using those averages as a baseline expectation makes sense, so for those wondering, he averaged 34.1 minutes and 19.7 field goal attempts at a 41.9% success rate. This worked out to 23.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 1.8 combined blocks and steals.
Ball led the Hornets to a surprise win in Houston on Wednesday, but we should not expect 38 minutes per game to be his normal run. He is a strong foundational building block across the DFS industry tonight.
Brandon Miller has been ruled out for tonight’s game after hurting his hip on Wednesday, though the team has indicated there is a good chance he plays tomorrow in Charlotte. He played just 11 minutes, and the new coaching staff led by Charles Lee spread the minutes around, with Miles Bridges (32 minutes) the only player other than Ball to top 30 minutes.
Tre Mann came close with 29 minutes, and he was dialed in from downtown, splashing four of eight triples and making eight of his 16 field goal attempts. Mann also had half a dozen rebounds and an assist, playing around 18 minutes with Ball. He is technically the backup point guard, so it is good to see him sharing the court with Ball, who can turn his attention to scoring and not worry about being the primary ball handler.
Nick Richards played around half the game, with Moussa Diabate and Grant Williams getting most of the other minutes. Richards has seen a salary bump over the last 48 hours, so he is a tertiary play at best. Williams is interesting with his ability to fill in at three positions on the court, though his upside is tied almost entirely with his ability to knock down long-range shots.
Rounding things out is Cody Martin, who is one of the five most popular players on DraftKings ($3,700), though on FanDuel ($4,600) his popularity is not likely to reach double digits.
Turning to the Atlanta side, Dyson Daniels is one of the five most popular plays on FanDuel ($5,200) and currently the most popular play on DraftKings ($4,600). Tuesday he had a solid 15 points, five rebounds, two assists and a block in 35 minutes — though it was an unsustainable five steals that pushed him into “must have” territory. The eighth overall selection in the 2022 NBA Draft had two steals per 36 minutes in his first two years with New Orleans, so there is a solid history in this category.
Trae Young is always a tournament option, and tonight is no different in this matchup. Young should again dominate the backcourt opportunities with Dejounte Murray in Atlanta, so expect lots of gaudy statistical performances at the expense of actual on-court victories this season.
Clint Capela was the starter, but he had just 19.5 minutes, which was well below the 28.5 of his “backup” Onyeka Okongwu, who also played the final eight minutes in a tight 120-116 victory over Brooklyn. The fifth-year big man was successful on 11 of 12 (92%) of his field goal attempts and converted all six free throw attempts on his way to 28 points, eight rebounds, one assist and three blocks. This is going to be a timeshare situation, though as we saw last year, it tends to be Okongwu with the closing unit.
Wrapping up the Hawks, De’Andre Hunter is hardly registering on the FanDuel radar at $5,200, but his $4,700 salary on DraftKings has him sliding just inside the 20 most popular players at this time. That is likely to change as more injuries are reported throughout the day, but it is good to consider him a placeholder value for the meantime.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo: Bucks vs. Bulls
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 59.48 | FanDuel: 58.09
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 9.4% | FanDuel: 17.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,100 | FanDuel: $11,400
It looks like gamers will be flocking to LeBron James based on the early projection runs, which makes sense from a point-per-dollar play. However, his ceiling is no longer that of Giannis Antetokounmpo, particularly with a healthy Anthony Davis.
It is also important to note that the Lakers host Sacramento tomorrow night, which means this is the front end of a back-to-back for Los Angeles. Milwaukee, on the other hand, does not play again until Sunday, with Monday being the Bucks’ first back-to-back.
Khris Middleton remains out, and while the Bucks are nearly double-digit favorites, it is going to be Antetokounmpo who propels this team to those lofty heights, making him a tremendous play in all formats. There are enough mispriced players and pending injuries that we will not want to lose sight of the two-time NBA MVP in the excitement leading up to lock.
Antetokounmpo tallied 25 points, 14 rebounds, seven assists and a block on Tuesday, playing 31 minutes. Had the game been even remotely competitive, he would have easily had 34 to 35 minutes. Coach Doc Rivers will be looking to strategically give in-game rest to his superstar, but we have seen Giannis with enough 60-fantasy point games in 30 minutes to know even if he has a slightly shortened outing, he can still post massive fantasy numbers.
In his last four games against the Bulls, Antetokounmpo has averaged 38 minutes and 18.5 field goal attempts with a 66.4% success rate. This has resulted in 34.8 points, 13.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 2.8 combined blocks and steals. Even taking away 15% of that production and minutes, he still would clear the 50-fantasy point plateau.
It was Dame Time on Tuesday as Lillard rolled up 30 points, along with a team-high +19 plus-minus in Philadelphia. He splashed half of his 12 3-pointers while also getting nine rebounds and six assists. The diminutive future Hall of Famer is a fine tournament target and a borderline core play for the evening sub-slate contests.
Bobby Portis saw 26 minutes off the bench, racking up a fine stat line with 16 points, three rebounds three assists, two blocks and a steal. Portis is live for all tournament slates with his fantasy point-per-minute ability. Brook Lopez is a tournament differentiation option, posting 30-plus fantasy points in five of his last eight battles against Nikola Vucevic.
Newcomers Tauren Prince and Gary Trent Jr. are secondary plays on the evening sub-slate.
Vucevic usually performs well against Lopez, rolling up 40-plus fantasy points in six of the last seven matchups. Zach LaVine should also be just fine from a fantasy perspective, as this duo no longer has to share the ball with DeMar DeRozan. Yes, Coby White has definitely taken a step forward, but he will not command as many shots are DeRozan, and offseason addition Josh Giddey will rarely crest over a dozen field goal attempts himself.
White and Giddey can provide fantasy goodness in a variety of ways, with each looking like strong differentiation options on DraftKings and mid-tier value plays on FanDuel. The bench is in flux, though Lonzo Ball will be getting regular maintenance days after missing most of the last three seasons with knee issues. Those will be the nights we want to check on Ayo Dosunmu’s salary, but there is no need to target him tonight.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Jalen Smith is on his third team since being selected with the 10th overall in the 2020 NBA Draft. The journeyman has per-36-minute averages of 11.3 rebounds and 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA).
Those efficiency rates are high, but he also has averaged around 18 minutes per game in this timeframe, which has the under 6.5 rebounds prop worthy of our attention tonight.
By using Portfolio EV to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.
Lines are constantly shifting and moving, so when you find a good number, pounce on it. That is the beauty and power of Portfolio EV to find the best lines at any point in the day.
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Smith projected for 15.1 minutes and 5.23 rebounds. This is below the seven needed for this under to fail and the 58% projected win rate and 6.4% expected ROI is enticing.
For those looking to branch out a little, the under for Smith’s 15.5 PRA is available at -120 on several books, with the -135 true odds giving this a 5.7% expected ROI. Smith currently projects for 13.52 PRA, and while adding in points and assists to the rebounding category gives him more outs, it is also a solid play on the under.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. For a limited time, get NBA Core for just ONE DOLLAR with promo code TIPOFF24! This grants you access to all of Stokastic’s tools and data, including the Sims, through Oct. 29. Act fast — this preview window closes next Tuesday whether you sign up now, tomorrow or this weekend. The clock is ticking!
