NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Jamal Murray + a Surprise! (Nov. 15)

Friday’s NBA slate begins at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Jamal Murray, Bennedict Mathurin and value options that will be solidified with additional breaking news.

Now that you’ve locked in your NBA DFS picks, take your game to the next level with expert picks! Check out Tails By OddsShopper for sharp betting tips from the industry’s top pros.

NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, Nov. 15

The NBA Lineup Generator is a user-friendly, powerful tool that streamlines DFS lineup creation. Simply choose your DFS platform and slate, set your ownership preferences (chalky, contrarian, balanced, or all), and lock in any players you want. The Generator then creates high-ROI lineups with key insights to guide your decisions.

For instance, check out today’s DraftKings main slate screenshot, where we built a slightly contrarian lineup featuring Jamal Murray. For more tips, dive into our comprehensive NBA Lineup Generator guide.

NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks

One crucial thing to remember is that Jokic dominates the ball for Denver, not only for scoring but also for assists. Since the start of last season, when Murray is on the court with the three-time NBA MVP, he has a 25.5% assist rate, which increases to 38.4% when the duo is apart. The former Kentucky Wildcat also sees an uptick in his scoring. Aaron Gordon remains out, so Michael Porter Jr. and Christian Braun are average tournament targets who approach core-play status if Jokic is away from the team.

New Orleans is missing the entire starting lineup with Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Jordan Hawkins and Jose Alvarado all hurt. OK, that is a little hyperbolic because Brandon Ingram is still healthy, but it is six of the top nine players who are out of commission. Slenderman has seen his salary normalize for all of the missing players, but Trey Murphy III has returned to action, and he is a decent discount dandy on DraftKings ($5,600) and FanDuel ($5,700) as the Pelicans need his scoring.

Brandon Boston Jr. finally has seen his salary increase to an appropriate level for his new baseline production, though he still warrants tournament consideration. Javonte Green is currently a placeholder value, but other options are likely to unveil themselves throughout the day.

If Jokic is indeed out, then Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Victor Wembanyama will be other pay-up options. Keep in mind that the Lakers play again tomorrow in New Orleans, while San Antonio heads to Dallas. This could lead to reduced late-game minutes if things are lopsided.

Trae Young gets a matchup against the Washington Wizards, who have the worst defensive efficiency in the league. Young missed the last game with a sore right Achilles, but this is a great spot for the Hawks, who just knocked off the Celtics in Boston without Young. Jalen Johnson is also having a strong season, and he should thrive in this matchup. De’Andre Hunter has missed the last 10 games, but he is expected to return tonight. That does not have a dramatic impact on Young or Johnson, but it is still worth calling out.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams get to face a thinned-out Phoenix squad, and this duo has had to pick up more of the scoring burden with Chet Holmgren sidelined. The Thunder are still a deep team, but they are still recalibrating on defense, getting by with a small lineup as Isaiah Hartenstein is not ready for action yet. This has the potential to be a good spot for Jusuf Nurkic, though he too has been dealing with a left ankle issue. Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant are out, so Grayson Allen (hamstring) and Devin Booker have been getting most of the backcourt opportunities on offense with Tyus Jones running point.

Finally, if Allen is not able to go or if you are looking for a pivot, Kris Dunn got a spot start for the Clippers with Terance Mann going to the bench. Both had solid games, and while Los Angeles lost in Houston 111-103, head coach Tyronn Lue may run it back. It is hard to be excited for a soon-to-be 32-year-old who has played only 345 games in eight-plus seasons, but salary is a thing in DFS.

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Bennedict Mathurin looks to be in the midst of a breakout season, and he has become a regular in the starting lineup as a result of his superb play. Over the last seven games, he is averaging 36.1 minutes and a 52.4% success rate on 14.7 field goal attempts per game. This works out to 24.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 0.8 combined blocks and steals. Yes, there are far sexier plays, but the sixth overall selection of the 2022 NBA Draft is a tremendous differentiation option. The perceived tough defense of Miami and two seasons of inconsistent play by Mathurin will have most gamers looking in other directions.

Tyrese Haliburton is shooting 39.1% from the field, including 27.1% on long-range attempts, which is significantly below his career averages. It would make sense that he looks to work Mathurin into the offense with more frequency until Haliburton is beyond whatever ailment is hampering his own scoring efficiency.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

For those of you who are not believers in Bennedict Mathurin, he does have an interesting line available for the under on his 30.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop.

Using Portfolio EV to handle the heavy lifting in finding favorable bets allows us to quickly identify inefficient odds like these. By maintaining accounts at multiple sportsbooks, we can then move swiftly to secure the best odds available.

This approach effectively pits the sportsbooks against each other, revealing that Hard Rock has posed -110 odds that stand above those offered by other major operators.

Odds are constantly shifting, so when you spot something favorable, jump on it. That’s the beauty and power of Portfolio EV — it helps you find the best odds at any time of day.

Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Mathurin projected for 36.3 minutes, 21.08 points, 6.64 rebounds and 2.49 assists, which works out to 30.21 PRA. That is a tick below the 31 needed for this wager to fail. The “True Odds” of -128 show that there is a 6.5% expected ROI with the current -110 odds, plus a 56% win rate.

Since moving into the starting lineup, Mathurin has cleared 31 PRA three times, falling below the milestone three times. Though, one of the “failures” was 30 PRA. If his shooting touch fades or he finds fewer rebounds, he could still have a decent DFS game while still rewarding the non-believers in the sports wagering world.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Catch all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show today at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, where we’ll dive into all the key elements of tonight’s slate.