NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Antetokounmpo + a Surprise (October 23)

Tuesday was an appetizer for Wednesday’s main course with 11 games on the docket and a 7:00 p.m. ET lock on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Collin Sexton, along with a variety of secondary players as premium targets.

NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Wednesday, Oct. 23

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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks

Milwaukee has made the postseason each of the last eight years, and while things are tough in the Eastern Conference, the Bucks should be in the mix for a top-4 seed. Tonight the 76ers will be without both Joel Embiid and Paul George, plus even when this duo returns, it is unlikely either will play in back-to-back games. This is the perfect time for coach Doc Rivers and his charges to remind a conference foe that it needs to fear the deer.

The back of the rotation is different, with Jae Crowder, Michael Beasley and Patrick Beverley all plying their trade in other cities. Gary Trent Jr. took a pay cut and a one-year, $2.6 million contract in the hopes of a deep postseason run. He is joined by journeymen Delon Wright and Taurean Prince, who will be augmenting regulars Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis and, of course, Damian Lillard.

Antetokounmpo is the usage king, even playing alongside Lillard. The absence of Embiid means big minutes for Andre Drummond, which should mean fantasy goodness for both big men. Trent is expected to start, though with a 22-team player pool, he is a neutral DFS option. It will be interesting to see who draws the start for Middleton; Portis and Prince are the two most likely candidates, while Pat Connaughton and Wright are longer shots but in play as well. It is hard to be excited by Lopez with so many centers in play, but Portis is definitely a secondary option given his fantasy point-per-minute pedigree.

Lillard is also in the mix, though it feels better to keep him and Antetokounmpo separated on rosters in order to maximize upside. Trent is just $4,500 on FanDuel, which has him projected as one of the five most popular players in the early data runs.

Thankfully, DraftKings ($7,000) and FanDuel ($8,000) preemptively increased the salary for Drummond, making the rebounding savant a true decision point. Tyrese Maxey should get as many shots as he wants tonight, and he came close to being the featured player for this article. It makes sense to have him above the field on both DraftKings (8.5%) and FanDuel (5.7%) at around double the projected popularity.

On a shorter slate, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Caleb Martin would be drawing more attention, though they are tertiary plays at best for tonight’s tournaments. Oubre is sliding just inside the top 20 on both FanDuel and DraftKings for projected popularity, but his boom/bust nature makes him a double-edged sword.

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Sexton did have 15 games of 33 minutes or more, including three of 38-plus minutes. Tonight he should be a full-go with the consensus putting him in line for 29 to 31 minutes. That has him projecting to be on nearly half of all DraftKings lineups and at least one-third of all rosters on the blue site. There are other paths in tournaments, but make no mistake: Sexton is a core play in all formats for those crafting five or fewer lineups.

The biggest change for the Jazz will be the development of second-year player Taylor Hendricks. The former UCF stalwart played in 40 games last year, earning 23 starts. He showed flashes of promise, which is key considering he was the ninth overall selection in the 2023 NBA Draft and it is expected that he will take a step forward, commanding a larger role than just being a 3-and-D wing.

Last year, the Jazz were mostly in tank mode, missing quite a few key regulars. Lauri Markkanen is back after getting a deal that kept him from really testing the free agent waters, and he will be the main offensive option. Keyonte George is a complementary piece who should have moments this season. John Collins is likely going to be the starting center, though Walker Kessler will still get substantial minutes off the bench. Utah needs Collins to be a strong frontcourt scorer, so he should see more offensive opportunities than last season when he averaged 11 field goal attempts per game. Something in the 13 to 14 range is there for the taking.

Jordan Clarkson will be reprising his role as the sixth man, though he is better utilized on the sub-slates or when there is a smaller player pool than Wednesday’s behemoth.

Memphis just never seems to have everyone available at the same time. Jaren Jackson Jr. (hamstring) is out, and both Luke Kennard and Vince Williams Jr. are a few weeks away from returning to action with their respective maladies.

Ja Morant, Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane barely played together last year, and now the frontcourt is in flux with rookie Zach Edey expected to start at center and Santi Aldama and Brandon Clarke joining him while also covering at power forward for Jackson.

Clarke looks tremendous on DraftKings ($3,700) as the punt du jour and just one of many discount dandies on FanDuel ($4,400). Smart has the opposite impact with his $5,500 salary pushing him into the top 25 most popular players on FanDuel, but he barely projects for double-digit representation on DraftKings ($5,900). Morant and Bane are tournament targets, but they are in a crowded scrum from a fantasy points-per-dollar perspective.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

Deandre Ayton is a fantasy force when he is motivated, but he also is more than willing to rest on his laurels and perceived accomplishment. That makes the under on his 11.5 rebounds prop one to consider tonight.

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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Ayton projected for 30.6 minutes and 9.81 rebounds. That is well below the 12 needed for this under to fail. This can be measured by the 56% expected win rate and also by understanding that there is a variable range of outcomes for the actual game and stats.

Last year, in his first Portland campaign, Ayton averaged 12.3 rebounds per 36 minutes, which were right in line with his 12.2 career rate. He is a good rebounder when he wants to be, but he also needs well north of 30 minutes at these rates to threaten this under.

There are likely to be a lot of errant shots from both teams tonight, which does create an environment for additional rebounds. Twelve is still a lofty number, and Ayton reached that threshold in 25 of his 55 (45%) games last season.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. For a limited time, get NBA Core for just ONE DOLLAR with promo code TIPOFF24! This grants you access to all of Stokastic’s tools and data, including the Sims, through Oct. 29. Act fast — this preview window closes next Tuesday whether you sign up now, tomorrow or this weekend. The clock is ticking!