Monday brings what could be the last game of the Eastern Conference Finals. Will Indiana avoid the sweep, or will Boston prevail? Tonight’s DFS contests lock at 8:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Andrew Nembhard.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Monday, May 27
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Andrew Nembhard: Pacers vs. Celtics
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 34.45 | FanDuel: 32.79
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 65.2% | FanDuel: 41.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $10,000
Everything tonight hinges on the availability and effectiveness of Tyrese Haliburton. The 23-year-old was dealing with hamstring issues for a good portion of the season, which limited him to 69 games. To his credit, he still led the league in assists and was awarded a spot on the All-NBA third team.
Haliburton sat out Game 3, so if he is a no-go tonight, we have a roadmap of what will likely transpire. If he does play, he is not going to be at 100% and maybe not even 80%. Since the Pacers are staring down an 0-3 deficit, it does not makes sense to push their franchise superstar into action tonight. Indiana played inspired ball in front of the hometown crowd on Saturday, actually leading 69-57 at the half, but they were not able to hold on for with win, ultimately falling 114-111. Jrue Holiday was the late-game hero, making a layup to tie the game at 111 with 38.2 seconds to go and then sinking three free throws down the stretch to secure the Boston victory.
Ben Sheppard drew the start for Haliburton, though he had a mostly empty box score, missing all four of his field goal attempts while corralling three caroms, handing out one assist and garnering one steal in 26 minutes. Veteran T.J. McConnell remained in his reserve role, but he still had 29 minutes and continued his ridiculous efficiency, going 10 of 17 (58.9%) from the field and adding nine rebounds, six assists, and a steal, totaling 23 points. Expect his reserve role to continue tonight if Haliburton is ruled out.
Andrew Nembhard was the DFS darling, scoring a team-high 32 points on 12 of 21 (57.1%) shooting, including 4 of 7 (57.1%) from downtown. The second-year guard also had four rebounds and nine assists. This season, including the playoffs, Nembhard saw his assist rate climb from 16.2% to 31.2% when Haliburton was on and off the court. FanDuel ($10,000) did not adjust his salary, while DraftKings ($6,200) gave a paltry $200 increase.
Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam each had 22 points, though they were both 0-for-3 from behind the arc. Tonight they should again approach 20 field goal attempts if Haliburton is out and play close to 40 minutes if the game is close. Aaron Nesmith rounds out the first five, but he is a neutral fantasy option at best, focusing more on defense than anything else.
Obi Toppin is a fine option off the bench, as he is heavily involved on defense and making the most of his offensive opportunities in his on-court bursts. Even though he sees 30% fewer minutes than Nesmith, he is the better fantasy option. Isaiah Jackson played the nine minutes that Turner did not, and he does have a chance for mop-up duty.
Doug McDermott played the last few seconds of the first three quarters for offensive purposes over Sheppard while also getting in for the first three minutes of the second period. In his four minutes, he made his only shot for 2 points, adding a rebound and a pair of assists. He did play mop-up duty in Game 2 and also in Game 4 against New York.
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Jayson Tatum: Celtics at Pacers
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 54.65 | FanDuel: 52.37
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 81.7% | FanDuel: 70.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $17,000
Jayson Tatum refused to give up on Saturday, pouring in 36 points to help erase an 18-point deficit, enabling the Celtics to win the game in the final minute of action. The sweep would be nice, but Boston is all but assured of securing a seat at the table for the NBA Finals, which begin on June 6.
It would not be a surprise to see Tatum on close to 90% of all entries today, so keep that in mind when crafting lineups for the giant tournaments, as there is likely to be a lot of roster overlap. Holiday is again questionable with an illness, but he seemed to be fine on Saturday and the additional 48 hours off should have him close to normal. Luke Kornet (wrist) is also questionable after missing Game 3. If he is available, that will cap the minutes and appeal for Oshae Brissett, outside of potential late-game run if the game is well in hand.
Jaylen Brown continues to be wildly effective, and he hit on 10 of 18 (55.6%) attempts, contributing 24 points and topping 20 for the seventh time in nine games. Brown continues to be a steady presence who also has 50-fantasy point upside. There are no holes in his game, and the only thing slowing him down in the postseason is being on such a deep and talented team.
Kristaps Porzingis remains out, so that means continued work for Al Horford as the primary center. The elder statesman was superb from long range, nailing 7 of 12 (58.3%) from 3-point distance and reaching the 40-fantasy point plateau for the second time in four games. That is not likely to continue tonight, but he is still looking good at $6,400 on DraftKings, though he is more of a neutral play at $9,000 on FanDuel.
Derrick White is averaging just over 40 fantasy points per game this series via a combination of his contributions across the box score. In 38 minutes per game, he is averaging 17.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 3.0 combined blocks and steals. He stands out on FanDuel ($11,500) and DraftKings ($7,800).
Payton Pritchard finally had a bad game, failing to crack double-digit fantasy points. Of course, that now has him down to $3,600 on DraftKings, which is his lowest salary since the Miami series. FanDuel also dropped him from $8,000 down to $7,000, making him a strong punt option on the blue site as well. Expect around 20 minutes for the backup guard and potential for showing out in the fourth quarter of a lopsided game.
Sam Hauser played 13 minutes and missed all three of his shots, nabbing a single rebound for his efforts. It would seem his only path to relevance would be via mop-up duty, as he otherwise defers to everyone else when he is on the floor with the regulars.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
There is value today in the under for Al Horford’s 2.5 made 3-pointers prop. This wager is currently available at -155 on BetMGM. Looking at the -179 “true odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), we can see there is a fantastic 5.6% expected ROI with the current line.
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By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.
We can see that the current line on the from these operators stands out when Pinnacle has under 2.5 made 3-pointers all the way down to -213.
NBA Bet Pro has Horford projected for 31.5 minutes and 2.25 made 3-pointers, which is below the 2.5 milestone, though it does not account for a variable range of outcomes. That can be measured by the 64% probability for the over on this wager.
In the 13 postseason games, Horford has three or more made 3-pointers on four occasions, including twice in this series. He also has three games with no makes on an average of 3.7 attempts, five games with one conversion on an average of 3.0 attempts and one game where he was 2 of 5. It is never fun taking unders, but that is where the value is with this line on BetMGM.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 7:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate, including even more on Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Andrew Nembhard. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
