Tuesday brings a new matchup as the Boston Celtics host the Indiana Pacers for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The action will be underway at 8:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Tyrese Haliburton.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Monday, May 21
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Jayson Tatum: Celtics vs. Pacers
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 55.54 | FanDuel: 53.09
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 88.1% | FanDuel: 68.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,200 | FanDuel: $16,000
Boston last played on May 15, so the team should be well rested and everyone ready to go, aside from Kristaps Porzingis (calf), who may be able to return by the weekend.
Jayson Tatum has been knocking on the door of the truly elite players for a couple of seasons and now is a perfect chance to join the party. Boston is favored by double-digits, which is just absurd.
Boston has played three fewer postseason games than Indiana, and while the short-handed Cleveland Cavaliers were feisty, the second-round victory was never in doubt for the Celtics. Tatum will be the most popular player tonight, for good reason. So it will be important to find differentiation elsewhere, which of course can be challenging and uncomfortable.
Jaylen Brown will be a popular player to pair with Tatum, so even moving him into the higher multiplier slot is not exactly an original idea. Playing Brown instead of Tatum does start to make things interesting, with Tatum projecting to be on nearly 90% of all DraftKings and 70% of FanDuel lineups in some form or fashion for Game 1. Brown has a ceiling that is nearly as high as Tatum’s and when comparing this duo on a fantasy point per dollar scale, he is not far off at all. The 27-year-old has averaged 23.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.2 combined blocks and steals through 10 post season games, which is right in line with what he has done each of the last two years.
Derrick White was amazing in the Miami series and in Game 1 against Cleveland. He faltered for three games, before rebounding with a strong shooting performance in the closeout event. There should be plenty of spacing available, which means open looks for White, who has three or more 3-pointers in six of the 10 playoff games, while averaging 3.7 makes across the postseason.
Al Horford will be 38-years-old in June and tonight will be his 186th playoff game. The venerable veteran has disappointed for nine of the 10 games, but in his last outing he did have 22 points and 15 rebounds, essentially double his highs in those categories from the preceding nine games. If this is a lopsided game, he will be the first to hit the bench, but he is still a viable DFS option.
Jrue Holiday has averaged 10.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 2.0 combined blocks and steals this postseason. Expect more of the same as his value will be in harassing his counterpart from the Pacers.
New series can lead to new rotations, though Payton Pritchard is the safest of the Boston reserves as he has a regular role in the rotation. He will be popular, but do not be shy about rostering more of him than The Masses. Sam Hauser is a better fit for this series than against Cleveland and he too has mop-up duty upside. Luke Kornet did enough in the last series, that he will probably stick in the rotation for the first couple of games, though more than six minutes in the first half is probably a dream.
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Tyrese Haliburton: Pacers at Celtics
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 40.65 | FanDuel: 39.24
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 54.1% | FanDuel: 45.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $14,500
Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers have not had much time off since crushing the Knicks in New York on Sunday afternoon. That is part of there reason that Boston is so heavily favored tonight, but even if each team had a week off, it would still likely end up with the Celtics being a least seven-point home favorites.
There are only a couple pending questions for tonight. One is the health of Mike Conley, who is questionable with a sore right leg that kept him out of Game 5. The 36-year-old veteran did play 31 minutes and scored 13 points with four rebounds and five assists on Thursday, so he should be OK. Jamal Murray had moved on from his calf issue but now has a sore elbow. Murray has had a rough postseason, converting just 40.0% of his shots against the Lakers in the first round, slipping down to 38.2% against the Timberwolves. That is well below his career-best 48.1% success rate during this regular season.
Haliburton had some uneven performances in the last round, but he has the second highest median fantasy point projection, slotting in just above Brown and if he is dialed in from downtown, there are outcomes where he could lead the slate in scoring.
This is another tough frontcourt matchup for Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam, and it will be even more daunting when Porzingis returns. Siakam gets the edge on DraftKings, while Turner is most appealing on FanDuel, with this duo rounding out the last of the core plays for the Pacers.
T.J. McConnell continues to get by on absurd efficiency, making the most of his minutes. That could easily continue tonight or evaporate like a mirage in the desert, but the former seems more likely as the veteran knows how to play within his skillset. Isaiah Jackson should continue to see 10-to-12 minutes against the larger frontcourt and he is the punt du jour across the DFS sites.
Andrew Nemhard an Aaron Nesmith are the other two members of the first five, but when salary and popularity is taken into account, they are mostly neutral when compared to reserve big man Obi Toppin, but still stronger options than guard Ben Sheppard.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Aaron Nesmith is someone to consider going against in the sports wagering world for his under 4.5 rebounds prop. This proposition is currently available at +107 on Unibet, SugarHouse and BetRivers. ooking at the -106 “true odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), we can see there is a terrific 6.3% expected ROI with the current line.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly. We can see that the current line on the trio of operators stands out dramatically when compared to the -120 offered by sharp book Pinnacle.
NBA Bet Pro has Nesmith projected for 29.5 minutes and 4.66 rebounds, which is above the 4.5 milestone and not far away from the five needed for this under to lose. This should reinforce that it is crucial to get this +107 line, as there is a 51% likelihood of Nesmith falling below five rebounds.
In the 13 playoff games thus far, Nesmith is averaging 32.7 minutes and 4.9 rebounds. In six games he has five or more rebounds, while in four games he has fewer than three. This is a good line, but the under is where the value resides.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 7:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements, including even more on Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Tyrese Haliburton, for today’s slate. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
