Sunday brings a pair of Game 7 elimination games, with the NBA action tipping off at 3:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, and Anthony Edwards and friends.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Sunday, May 19
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Jalen Brunson: Knicks vs. Pacers
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 53.27 | FanDuel: 51.23
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 55.1% | FanDuel: 54.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $10,300
The wheels are falling off the Tom Thibodeau wagon, with Josh Hart suffering an abdominal injury in Game 6, limiting his effectiveness. He is going to give it a go on Sunday, and there is a chance O.G. Anunoby will also return for this win-or-go-home matchup.
Jalen Brunson will be the key for everything New York does, much as he has been for the last four months.
The return of Anunoby will likely push Miles McBride back to the bench, but the reserve guard has been a strong source of scoring the last three games, with 53 total points. Anunoby is more of a defensive and rebounding presence, so his availability will not alleviate the lack of scoring options for the Knicks. Similarly, it was painful watching Hart attempt to put his arms above his head and twist/turn laterally on defense. He was already an inconsistent scorer, and this injury is not going to help matters.
Donte DiVincenzo has really fallen off the last three games, particularly from long range, where he is just 4 of 20 (20%) with 17, 8 and 7 points. In the fourth quarter of Game 6, DiVincenzo missed all four of his field goal attempts, resulting in him hitting the bench for the final 7:30 of the loss. It is going to be up to DiVincenzo and McBride to help take some of the pressure off of Brunson if the Knicks are going to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Isaiah Hartenstein has tallied just 21 points over the last four games, though he does have 16 assists and he pulled down a whopping 17 rebounds in Game 5. He is currently the second-most popular player on DraftKings ($6,200) and he tops the list on FanDuel ($6,400), where his power forward eligibility is quite handy. Precious Achiuwa and Alec Burks are both viable reserves, particularly with Hart and Anunoby ailing this afternoon.
The price is right for starters Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard, along with reserves T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin. Though none are players to target, they are all acceptable options for any roster builds. It is just tricky to endorse any particular one. Isaiah Jackson and Ben Sheppard were in play on Friday, but that was because there was only one game. There is no real need to look to these players until around lineup 50 or so.
Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner, of course, are the big three for Indy, and they are core plays since they should see around 40 minutes in this closeout game if it is contested down to the end. Each has had slate-breaking performances and duds this series; let personal preference be your guide for this portion of the journey.
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Anthony Edwards: Timberwolves at Nuggets
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 46.79 | FanDuel: 45.63
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 21.6% | FanDuel: 37.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9’400 | FanDuel: $10’100
This has been a tremendous postseason for Anthony Edwards, and he has a chance to lead his team to the Western Conference Finals. The Timberwolves have won twice in Denver already, but that was two weeks ago — my, how time warps with a lengthy series.
Minnesota staved off elimination at home on Thursday with a convincing 115-70 victory that was never in question.
There are only a couple pending questions for tonight. One is the health of Mike Conley, who is questionable with a sore right leg that kept him out of Game 5. The 36-year-old veteran did play 31 minutes and scored 13 points with four rebounds and five assists on Thursday, so he should be OK. Jamal Murray had moved on from his calf issue but now has a sore elbow. Murray has had a rough postseason, converting just 40.0% of his shots against the Lakers in the first round, slipping down to 38.2% against the Timberwolves. That is well below his career-best 48.1% success rate during this regular season.
Edwards has been sublime, averaging 30 points a game during the playoffs while making 42.5% of his 7.3 3-point attempts per game. He also is averaging just over 11 combined rebounds and assists, making him a core building block for this final multi-game slate. Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert owned the boards in Game 6, with 13 and 14 rebounds. Naz Reid was not to be left out as he had 11 off the bench, giving the team a 62-43 advantage over Denver. The starting duo has been less consistent when it comes to scoring, but they were picked up by Mr. Inconsistent himself, Jaden McDaniels, who had 21 points on Thursday. That is not a likely outcome again, but it is good to see the former University of Washington stalwart rising to the occasion.
Wrapping things up with the Nuggets, three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic is still a golden god, though his salary does at least make for some decision points. Anything less than a triple-double while leading his team to the next round will be disappointing for his supporters. Michael Porter Jr. has picked a bad time to go into a slump, and he has scored a mere 18 points combined in the last three games after scoring 20, 9 and 21 in the first three. If this funk continues, he could see more time on the bench than expected, with Justin Holiday or Christian Braun getting longer looks for their outside-shooting potential.
Aaron Gordon is another strong option, and he has picked up some of the scoring load from Porter and Murray. This has not really been reflected in his salary, making him a borderline core play across the NBA DFS sites. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should be on the court for something approaching 40 minutes if the game is close, especially if it is Murray or Porter who falter for the other reserves.
Peyton Watson is out of the rotation, which leaves only backup guard Reggie Jackson as the other reserve who may see 10 to 12 minutes, other than a lopsided end-game scenario.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Aaron Nesmith is someone to consider going against in the sports wagering world for his under 4.5 rebounds prop. This proposition is currently available at +120 on BetMGM. Looking at the +106 “true odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), we can see there is a tasty 6.6% expected ROI with the current line.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly. We can see that the BetMGM wager stands out dramatically when compared to the -108 offered by sharp book Pinnacle.
NBA Bet Pro has Nesmith projected for 31.7 minutes and 4.97 rebounds, which is above the 4.5 milestone and nearly at the five needed for this under to lose. This should reinforce that it is paramount to get this +120 line, as there is a 48% likelihood of Nesmith falling below five rebounds.
Beginning with Game 1 of this series, Nesmith corralled six, one, six, 12, four and six caroms. In a fun twist, for the 12-rebound game, he only played 24.1 minutes, which was a series low. When looking at a long-term time horizon, this is the type of wager we want to tackle.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 2:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements, including even more on Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Anthony Edwards, for today’s slate. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.
