NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Don’t Fade Cade! (Nov. 17)

Sunday brings a variety of lock times, with FanDuel tipping off at 5:00 p.m. ET and DraftKings going one hour later. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Cade Cunningham and several Cavaliers.

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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Sunday, Nov. 17

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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks

Washington has the worst defense in the league, allowing 118.4 points per 100 possessions while playing at the second-fastest pace, with 104.3 possessions per 48 minutes. Just how bad are the Wizards? Well, the Pistons are 5-point road favorites. Fortunately, the Wizards have at least been strong offensively with 130 and 117 points in the last two games now that Kyle Kuzma is regaining his stamina after an injury layoff.

Tobias Harris is projecting as the second-most popular player on FanDuel ($6,500), though this was the first run and the main injury report updates will not occur until later this afternoon. This is the second stint for Harris in Detroit, and the 14-year NBA veteran has provided a steady presence as the young talent starts to coalesce into a real team. The Pistons are 6-8 thus far, which is encouraging considering the franchise averaged only 18.8 wins across the last five seasons.

Harris is not going to light the world on fire, but the 32-year-old is averaging 33 minutes per game with just over a 19% usage rate. Tim Hardaway Jr. is questionable, while Ausar Thompson is not yet ready to make his debut. That means more offensive opportunities for Harris and a good shot at mid-30s fantasy points, with another half dozen ripe for the taking in additional upside.

Jaden Ivey is a differentiation option across the DFS sites, and Jalen Duren is a deeper cut, having only center eligibility. Even if Hardaway is able to suit up, he does not dramatically impact the fantasy prospects of the aforementioned Pistons since he is mostly used for outside scoring and is averaging just under 27 minutes per game, even as a starter.

Kuzma is the only real fantasy option worth targeting on either of the main DFS sites, with his minutes ramping up from 24.1 to 25.3 and reaching 29 in his last start. He is going to be in the 29- to 30-minute range most nights, unless it is a game where the Wizards have a chance to win.

We should not expect Caris LeVert to play more than 30 minutes tonight; something in the 25 to 27 range is the likely outcome. The 30-year-old has already missed two games this season, and the do-everything player is a key reserve that new coach Kenny Atkinson would prefer not to overextend. It looks like the DFS industry currently has LeVert projected for around 30 minutes. However, Your Ol’ Pal still thinks this is more of an aspirational target. Even with a few minutes less, LeVert is still likely to push for 30 fantasy points, making him an excellent building block.

In tournaments, if this level of popularity holds, coming in around half the field would be an ideal leverage play since a 40-fantasy point effort would be close to a 90th-percentile outcome. Since the beginning of last year, LeVert has averaged around a fantasy point per minute with or without Mitchell on the court in a 2,504-minute sample size.

Darius Garland will be a recipient of additional usage with his backcourt mate getting the night off, and he has just over a 10% increase in his per-minute fantasy efficiency when flying solo. Evan Mobley also gets a bump of around 15% when Mitchell is off the floor, getting more offensive opportunities. He and Jarrett Allen should have plenty of room to operate in the paint with Mark Williams out and Nick Richards yet to play this season.

This is a back-to-back for Charlotte, as the Hornets knocked off Milwaukee 115-114 in The Hive Saturday afternoon. LaMelo Ball played 36.3 minutes in the victory, and he has averaged 37.3 minutes over the last trio of tilts. It would not be a surprise if the oft-injured guard ends up with some malady preventing him from playing tonight, plus he is, of course, at risk of in-game rest if the Cavs handle business on their home court, wrapping up this game early.

Other options to consider on Sunday include Fred VanVleet, who has been dialed in over the last few games, though we know he has been dreadfully inconsistent with his scoring since joining Houston. Robert Williams III crushed it on Tuesday, racking up 51.3 FanDuel and 46.3 DraftKings points. He is at the minimum $3,000 salary on DraftKings, with multi-position eligibility making him a fun punt option, though we should not expect more than 20 to 22 minutes for Timelord as he will be playing only his 10th game for Portland since being traded there prior to the start of last season.

Vince Williams Jr. is also back and a potential discount dandy on the main DFS sites, but with the larger player pool and, of course, elevated levels of shenanigans on NBA Sundays, other value options may appear and replace him. The Mavericks needed Luka Doncic for just 28.4 minutes last night, as was the case with Kyrie Irving since Dallas handled the Spurs 110-93 at home. Victor Wembanyama was out, so this result was not a surprise. Both should be in line for regular minutes against Oklahoma City.

The Thunder provide Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams as fantasy options, with this duo picking up the scoring slack left behind by Chet Holmgren. Nikola Jokic has been away from the team as his wife is expecting, but if he returns, he will become the priority play at the top of the projections. If he is out, then give Jamal Murray another chance and Michael Porter Jr. will have to help carry the offense as Aaron Gordon is also injured.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

In light of the analysis above, we should definitely be considering the under on LaMelo Ball’s 5.5 rebounds prop.

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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Ball projected for 34.3 minutes and 5.41 rebounds, which is right in line with the wager. Of course, there are no partial rebounds and the combination of the “True Odds” of -138 and a 58% win rate show that there is a 6.0% expected ROI.

This season, Ball is averaging 33.8 minutes and 5.3 rebounds. In the last nine games, he has six or more rebounds four (44%) times. The back-to-back and tougher opponent make the under on this wager a little more appealing than if Ball was coming in on full rest.