Saturday NBA Playoff action get underway with the first of two games tipping off at 3:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Donovan Mitchell, with a few value options.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Saturday, May 11
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Luka Doncic: Mavericks vs. Thunder
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 63.29 | FanDuel: 59.72
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 36.7% | FanDuel: 46.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings $11400 | FanDuel: $11600
Luka Doncic is clearly laboring on defense, with a sprained right knee suffered in the first round. He even tweaked his left ankle on Thursday, giving him just 48 hours for treatment. At least the Mavericks are at home.
Doncic rallied for 29 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists, three steals and a block in 41 minutes of action as Dallas took Game 2 from the Thunder in Oklahoma City.
While Doncic has been looking slow as molasses on defense, when he has the ball in his hands, at least he knows were he is going, which helps out tremendously as he navigates through his various maladies. The superstar has received a salary discount of $600 on DraftKings and $400 on FanDuel since Game 1 of this series. He needs at least 60 fantasy points for his backers to be happy, so, fortunately, that’s right at his projection for tonight. It’s important to note that he has only reached that threshold once on FanDuel and three times on DraftKings in eight postseason outings.
P.J. Washington barely got to 20 fantasy points in the opener, yet he scored 29 points in Game 2, thanks to 7-of-11 (63.6%) accuracy from downtown and sinking 11-of-18 (55.6%) overall from the field. To say that was an outlier is an understatement, as the late-season acquisition tallied 26 combined points in the three prior playoff performances. While he should top 20 fantasy points, seeing him crest over 30 again in this series may be a stretch.
Kyrie Irving attempted only eight shots on Thursday, partly because he was helping feed Doncic and Washington, proven by his 11 assists. Do not expect Irving to be quiet for much longer. He is due to flirt with the 50 fantasy point plateau. It has been four games since he last reached that milestone, but if he needs to assume more of a scoring role with Doncic dinged up, he could be a major tournament difference-maker.
Daniel Gafford saw 27 minutes for the second straight game with Maxi Kleber (shoulder) out of commission. Expect him to flirt with a double-double for the remainder of this series, though a five-block outing like Game 1 is unlikely to be replicable. Tim Hardaway Jr. looks like the punt du jour, coming off a stellar 17=point effort on Thursday. The ankle issue seems to be an afterthought, after costing him the last four games of the Clippers series. He has now played 17 and 18.8 minutes and at $3,600 on DraftKings and $4,200 on FanDuel, he is going to be wildly popular.
Savvy gamers will turn to Hardaway’s teammate, Josh Green, who is at a very similar price point, and while he does not have the same upside, he has just as good of a chance for 15-to-20 fantasy points and is far less likely to end up with a single-digit dud. Derrick Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II can be sprinkled in for tournament differentiation.
On the other side, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been sublime in this series, averaging 39 minutes and 21.5 field goal attempts with a 48.8% success rate. This has culminated in 31.0 points, 10.5 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 3.0 combined blocks and steals, making him a core part of Saturday’s rosters. SGA is the most popular OKC option on DraftKings, with Jalen Williams ranking second, this duo reverses order on the blue site, where there is a $3,200 salary difference. Williams and Chet Holmgren are good fantasy options, but they are stuck in the middle ground when it comes to raw points and fantasy points per dollar. That does lead to them being skipped over by DFS gamers who are trying to force the coveted stars and scrubs build.
Josh Giddey did not start the second half and didn’t see the court in the final quarter, logging just shy of 11 minutes. Aaron Wiggins was with the first five after halftime and also had six minutes in the fourth period. Even Isaiah Joe and Jaylin Williams had more action than the Australian, who seems to be hampered by a lack of offensive ability and subpar defense.
Lugentz Dort and Cason Wallace remain in the mix as cheaper options, who will at least see the court for 20-plus minutes. They may not be the most productive players for fantasy purposes, but unlike Giddey, they will get off the pine.
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Al Horford: Celtics at Cavaliers
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 26.43 | FanDuel: 26.08
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 37.7% | FanDuel: 64.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $5,600
Gamers may not be so ready to go back to Al Horford tonight after he failed to crack 20 fantasy points on Thursday. Do not let that dissuade you, since Kristaps Porzingis is still out, and the 37-year-old has been coddled all season to keep him ready for this exact scenario.
Payton Pritchard just missed out on being the named player for this section. He continues to make the most of his minutes and opportunities, making him a steal at his current salary.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the key cogs in the offense, so there is not much to add regarding their fantasy prospects. Derrick White is going to lose his touch at some point, and his 3-for-11 performance in Game 2 could have been the tipping point. Before that game, he had averaged 14.5 field goal attempts in the first six playoff games with a 57.5% conversion rate, including a ridiculous 50% success rate on 9.3 3-pointers per tilt. The under on his 17.5 points prop is currently at even money on several books and one to target or work into cards on the pick’em sites.
Luke Kornet and Sam Hauser are wild cards, though neither brings any level of comfort, even for the single-slate format. Jrue Holiday is in a similar boat, focusing on defense and facilitation, losing out on assists with so many teammates ready to make the extra pass.
Jarrett Allen (ribs) is a game-time decision, having missed the last two weeks. If he is in, it dramatically impacts Evan Mobley, who will have rebounding competition, and Tristan Thompson, who will likely be glued to the bench. Marcus Morris Sr. and Isaac Okoro will lose trickledown minutes and neither will be in the starting lineup.
Caris LeVert appears to be healthy and is the one player that the Celtics have not exactly worried about. Allen’s potential return will help his cause as well. If Allen is out again, we have ample evidence of how the rotation will likely play out.
Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell will be the least impacted, so expect more of the same. For the latter, that means another run at 30-plus points and yet another masterpiece, this time in front of his home crowd. Mitchell is on a similar breakout trajectory as Anthony Edwards, and while his ceiling is not as high from a basketball perspective, he is a fabulous option in the DFS world tonight.
It is wild to think that this series is tied and there is a chance it could head back to Boston next week with the teams at 2-2.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Sam Hauser is someone to consider in the sports wagering market for his under 5.5 points prop, which is currently available on BetRivers, Unibet and SugarHouse at -105. Looking at the -125 “true odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), we can see there is an elite 8.3% expected ROI with the current line.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.
NBA Bet Pro has Hauser projected for 16.8 minutes and 5.20 points, which is below the 6.5 milestone, but that does not account for variable outcomes, which are better represented by the 55% probability of the under occurring for this wager.
In the first two games of this series, Hauser has played 17 and nine minutes, taking one and two field goal attempts. Yes, he could easily knock down a pair of triples and this bet will be lost, but unless there is garbage time or mop-up duty, he seems more willing to defer while on the court. Beginning with the Miami series, he has 12, six, five, zero, 17, zero and two points.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 2:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.
