Wednesday marks the middle of the work week with an eight-game featured slate beginning at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen, with ample representation from the Bulls, Jazz and short-handed 76ers. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA, MMA and NASCAR) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Wednesday, March 6
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Darius Garland: Cavaliers at Hawks
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 41.49 | FanDuel: 38.95
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 21.7% | FanDuel: 21.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $7,800
Donovan Mitchell has missed the last three games with a bruised knee. He is likely to miss another week and potentially longer after undergoing platelet-rich plasma (PRP) treatment.
Mitchell leaves a void of 28 points, 20.4 field goal attempts, 5.4 rebounds, 6.2 assists and 35.7 minutes that will need to be filled by the remainder of the rotation.
Without Mitchell, Darius Garland will assume even more of the facilitation role and pick up a few extra offensive opportunities. When Mitchell is on the court, Garland is averaging 0.93 fantasy points per minute this year. When he is running the backcourt without the All-Star, he sees an increase of just over 12% in his per-minute efficiency to 1.05 fantasy points per minute.
Since returning from his own lengthy injury absence, Garland has played five games without Mitchell, averaging 37.5 minutes and 16 field goal attempts, culminating in 20 points, 3.4 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 1.8 steals for nearly 40 fantasy points per appearance. Using that as a reasonable baseline and of course considering the above-average matchup against the Hawks, Garland is today’s core building block.
Dean Wade is popping on DraftKings ($3,200) and is projected to be on just over 40% of all tournament rosters. Last night was an outlier, as he helped the Cavaliers make a big comeback against Boston, scoring 23 points while shooting six of nine from behind the line and tallying an uncharacteristic eight rebounds. That production came in 21 minutes of action and exceeded his production from his last four games combined (63 minutes, 11 points, nine rebounds). On FanDuel at $4,000, he is seeing less than half that level of interest.
Jarrett Allen is a core play on FanDuel where he has power forward eligibility and is a solid secondary option on DraftKings. He should be in the mix for 40 fantasy points, with another 10 of potential upside against the Atlanta frontcourt, which is still missing Onyeka Okongwu. Allen will see a surge in popularity with Evan Mobley out. Max Strus is dealing with a knee issue, so depending on how the chips fall, Isaac Okoro and Georges Niang could see an uptick in popularity.
Caris LeVert is a strong option with Mitchell out, though the team would like to keep the oft-injured wing on a soft 30-minute limit. He played 30 last night and a season-high 39 on February 28, but he ended up spraining his elbow and missing the two subsequent games after that contest. He should be good to go tonight, but he is the low-key “Mr. Glass” of the Cavaliers.
Cameron Payne: 76ers vs. Grizzlies
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 24.24 | FanDuel: 23.34
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 56.1% | FanDuel: 72.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,100 | FanDuel: $4,000
Tyrese Maxey is doubtful and on track to miss another game with his concussion. Joel Embiid, Robert Covington, De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Lowry are also all out, which means big minutes for Cameron Payne.
Lowry logged 36 minutes last night and he has been granted the night off now that Payne appears to have moved beyond the illness that kept him out of Sunday’s game and semi-limited him to 22.5 minutes last night.
Kelly Oubre Jr. played 36 minutes off the bench and led the team with a 40 fantasy point performance yesterday while Tobias Harris logged 37 minutes with a mid-30 fantasy point effort. Buddy Hield should continue to see steady action, and for those feeling frisky, Ricky Council IV is a desperation punt.
On the Memphis side, if Jaren Jackson Jr. finally returns to the court after missing three games with a sore quad, he should find the action in the paint much friendlier without Embiid. Jordan Goodwin is only a safe option if he is starting since he is running out of games on his recently signed two-way deal.
Luke Kennard and John Konchar have each received salary bumps, so they are not as enticing as they were on Monday.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
Chicago Bulls at Utah Jazz
Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan, Ayo Dosumnu, Coby White and Alex Caruso will be well-represented in tournaments tonight across the DFS industry. The Bulls are in Utah, taking on the Jazz as 3.5-point road favorites. Over the last 10 games, Utah is allowing 120.7 points per 100 possessions, which is the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league during this timeframe.
Chicago is giving their first five heavy minutes with Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams on the shelf, plus it sounds likely Torrey Craig (knee) is going to miss a sixth-consecutive game and Dalen Terry could be out as well for a personal matter. Andre Drummond is one of many center options on the featured slate, but he does have the potential for the single-game format or the evening sub-slate.
Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George, Walker Kessler and rookie Taylor Hendricks are all out tonight with various maladies. That is leaving the Jazz very thin and it has Collin Sexton, John Collins and Jordan Clarkson popping in the projections, even accounting for Clarkson coming off the bench. On Monday, he had 36 minutes against the Wizards, so something in the 34-to-36 minute range is in play tonight.
Kris Dunn saw 28 minutes of run in the last game, mostly because George played just six minutes before leaving with an illness. That was the most he has received since the end of December, and he should approach that again tonight against his former team. The rest of the Jazz are tenuous as the likes of Luka Samanic, Talen Horton-Tucker, Jonny Juzang and Brice Sensabaugh could each get between 12 and 22 minutes. That list doesn’t even count Omer Yurtseven (who should only be considered if he is starting) and veteran guard Kira Lewis Jr. (who has played in just three games since joining the Jazz after languishing briefly in Toronto).
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Alperen Sengun dropped a career-high 45 points on the Spurs last night, but do not let that dissuade you from looking to the under on his 21.5 points prop. This is currently available at odds of -110 on Hard Rock.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can easily take advantage of outliers such as this off-market line. Every other book lists the under for -120 or worse.
We can see that “sharp” book Pinnacle is down to -143, while FanDuel is at -106, but has dropped the threshold to 20.5 points.
Per the true odds of -124 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has an outstanding 5.6% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Sengun projected for 31.8 minutes and 19.77 points, which is below the 21.5 target, but keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.
Over his last nine games, Sengun has tallied more than 21 points twice, landing on exactly 21 once. Five of his games have seen him with less than 20 points. This is a great matchup against the Mavericks, but Siakam is not the primary offensive option.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by PrizePicks – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match AND – ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium! Full details here.
