Friday has a seven-game featured slate locking at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks, including some intriguing playing time situations that provide steady value options. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Anthony Davis.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, January 19
Anthony Davis: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Brooklyn Nets
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 53.89 | FanDuel: 54.7
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 12.3% | FanDuel: 4.6%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $11,500
This is somewhat of an “island game” for Los Angeles, with the team having played Monday and Wednesday. The Lakers next play on Sunday, in what should be a very winnable game against Portland and then they are “on the road” against the Clippers next Tuesday and host the Chicago Bulls on Thursday.
Brooklyn has been slipping on defense and over the last 15 games, the Nets have allowed 118.3 points per 100 possessions, which is in the bottom-third of the league. Tonight the Lakers are favored by six, with a 117 implied team total, that is a couple points higher than their seasonal average of 114.4 points per game.
Anthony Davis stands out as a tremendous option on DraftKings in all formats and he is in play for FanDuel tournaments as well. He has tallied 59-plus fantasy points in four of his last five games. Tonight he has the third best median fantasy point projection and while it is still eight points shy of Joel Embiid, the $900 discount on FanDuel and the $1,300 savings on DraftKings are useful.
D’Angelo Russell is also worth calling out, with his promotion back to the starting five. In this trio of tilts, he has averaged 37.5 minutes with a crazy 53.4% success rate on 19.3 field goal attempts, including a 52.0% conversion rate on 8.3 triples per appearance. LeBron James missed the first of these three games, but with Cam Reddish (knee) out through the weekend, Russell should continue to start. Currently he projects to be on around 20% of all tournament lineups, but it is important to note that with the change in role, along with an increased probability of being in the closing lineup again, this is appropriate.
Charlotte Hornets vs. San Antonio Spurs
The Hornets are among the most popular plays on DraftKings, with Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges, LaMelo Ball and Nick Richards (ankle) all projected in the top-seven, while PJ Washington is just inside the top-20. Bridges is the second most popular option on FanDuel, where he is currently expected to be on nearly half of all rosters. Washington and Rozier are right around the double-digit popularity threshold, with Ball a fringe-play with a salary that is $1,100 higher than his DraftKings cap hit.
Ball has been outstanding over the last few games and the savvy gamer will want him well represented in their tournament portfolio, across all of the main DFS sites. It is unlikely that the Hornets push him much beyond 32-to-34 minutes, though he does not have a cap. It is more along the lines of this being yet another lost season and now that the team has dropped 17 of 18, the eight victories on the season are only one more than the Wizards and Spurs.
Rozier turns 30 this spring, so it would not be a surprise to see the team showcase him for a potential trade, that would return assets closer to the timeline of Ball (22), Bridges (25), Williams (22) and Brandon Miller (21).
Tonight the Spurs will be without rookie Victor Wembanyama, who is getting a scheduled rest day, but he will be in action tomorrow against the Wizards. This does dampen the defense of San Antonio to more of a league-average unit when he is off the court. Even though the 19-year-old French phenom has been posting some gaudy stat lines, he is mostly playing between 24 and 27 minutes per game. Though while this does not open up a ton of minutes, it does free up around 15 field goal attempts and a dozen or so potential rebounds.
Second-year power forward Dominick Barlow got the start about a week ago when Wembanyama sat, but he is not someone to target tonight, since it would be a surprise if he played more than half of the game. Zack Collins has missed the last nine games with an ankle issue and he was also dealing with an illness, but he would be the most likely starting candidate if he returns to action. The only concern would be conditioning and playing time, but he is a tremendous fantasy producer when he is on the court.
Jeremy Sochan (55.3%) is projected to be the most popular player on DraftKings, coming in nearly 15% higher than Rozier. Devin Vassell (45.2%) is tops on FanDuel, just edging out Bridges and he is the sixth most popular option on DraftKings. Tre Jones is just inside the top-12 on DraftKings, while he and Sochan are just outside the top-20 on FanDuel.
This is the first game of the night, so we will have all of the necessary injury news and starting lineups, in what should be a spirited matchup, boasting a 235.5 game total.
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Additional NBA DFS Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Paolo Banchero has made this section a couple of times this season and he finds himself again as someone to consider for the under on his 27.5 points prop tonight. The line is currently available at -115, and per the true odds of -128 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a fantastic 5% expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
It is crucial to take advantage of OddsShopper to look at all the available lines since that can easily be worth another 2% to 3% for your ROI, even on perfectly neutral bets, based on how the different books value things. To demonstrate this very concept, look below — you can see that sharp book Pinnacle is coming in at -128, but dropping down to 26.5 points, while the other books offering an under 27.5 are sitting at -130. Be a savvy shopper!
The former first-overall selection of the 2022 NBA Draft is averaging a career high 22.9 points, which is up from his 22.0 from last season, though that is still a far cry from the 27.5 threshold we need him to stay under tonight. Franz Wagner and Gary Harris remain out, but Markelle Fultz is back in action, Jalen Suggs has recovered from his illness and Wendell Carter Jr. is up to 24 minutes of run, this has Orlando employing a 10-man rotation, which makes things a little crowded in the frontcourt.
While Banchero has not scored more than 26 points in any of his last five games, he tally 28 or more in five of the preceding six. When Embiid is healthy and able to protect the rim, the Philadelphia defense is a among the top-10 or better.
NBA Bet Pro currently has the 21-year-old Seattle native projected for 36.4 minutes and 26.13. Those marks are a little above his season averages, but still below the target milestone. Keep in mind that median projections are far different from potential range of outcomes, but the 56% expected win probability indicates this is a good wager at anything better than -128 tonight.
Here is a terrific video from Dave “Loughy” Loughran on OddsShopper breaking down why it is important to consider wagering on unders.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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