Monday starts a new week with several exciting NBA matchups, with the action underway at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, and a couple of Mavericks in Luka Doncic and Dereck Lively II, along with a variety of secondary players as premium targets.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Monday, Oct. 28
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Jamal Murray: Nuggets at Raptors
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings:37.46 | FanDuel: 36.71
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 42.8% | FanDuel: 39.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,100 | FanDuel: $7,300
Jamal Murray is projecting to be one of the five most popular options on DraftKings and FanDuel, even with the blue site electing to include the two games in the 10 o’clock hour — hilarious considering it was the DFS site that pioneered trimming back on the larger NBA slates last season and even let it dribble into the first few MLB slates.
Denver has now dropped the first two games of the season, both at home. Losing to Oklahoma City is nothing to be ashamed of, but losing to the Los Angeles Clippers — who are without Kawhi Leonard (injury) and Paul George (now playing for Philadelphia) — is just sad.
The Nuggets are nearly double-digit favorites in this international matchup, and with the Raptors being a bottom-10 defense, this is a tremendous get-right spot. Murray has been playing major minutes, though expect something in the low to mid-30s tonight and not his 37.5 minutes from the first two games. He is a career 45.2% shooter from the field, but over his last three healthy seasons he has a 47.1% success rate. Murray should improve from his early-season slump (40.7%), which will help him get back on track from a fantasy perspective.
Nikola Jokic is the bucks-deluxe option at the center position tonight, and he is looking at single-digit popularity on the main DFS sites, with so many other centers in the player pool. Jokic has made 8 of 15 (53.3%) 3-point attempts this season after averaging around three attempts per game for his career. If he is stepping behind the arc more frequently, that adds yet another dangerous element to his game. Across the last two-plus seasons, he has a very respectable 37.5% success rate from beyond the arc.
Michael Porter Jr., Christian Braun and backup point guard Russell Westbrook are each looking like they will be on 15% to 20% of all rosters on DraftKings, with Aaron Gordon being the best Denver point-per-dollar play on FanDuel among the mid-tier range.
Last year Scottie Barnes leveled up, setting personal bests with 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 2.8 combined blocks and steals, earning his first All-Star nomination. Expect more of the same this season, plus tonight Toronto will be without Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Kelly Olynyk and Bruce Brown. That means there is a crazy amount of statistical production up for grabs, with Barnes well positioned to get his share. Jakob Poeltl is in the mix as one of many intriguing centers, while Davion Mitchell, Ochai Agbaji and Jonathan Mogbo are discount dandies, depending on your DFS site of choice.
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Luka Doncic: Mavericks vs. Jazz
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 58.81 | FanDuel: 55.92
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 12.5% | FanDuel: 7.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,300 | FanDuel: $11,700
The season is young, but it is already apparent that the Utah defense is going to be one to target this season. Through two games, the Jazz are allowing 126.5 points per game, ahead of only Washington (128.5). Last year these two teams finished in the same order with Utah ceding 120.5 points per game and the Wizards 123.0.
Luka Doncic led the league in 2023-24 with a 36.0% usage rate while also winning the scoring title (33.9) and averaging 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists. He is basically on pace to hit these figures again, making him a tremendous fantasy and NBA force.
Dereck Lively II is coming off the bench, though he is getting a couple more minutes than starter Daniel Gafford. The rookie really found his stride in the playoffs, and he was a major factor in propelling the Mavericks to the NBA Finals. We know he will most likely be with the closing unit and continue to get run for around half the game. Inevitably, with Gafford’s injury history, there will be some spot starts for Lively, and it will not be a complete surprise if he actually becomes the regular starter later this season.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Clint Capela is in his age-30 season, and it looks like his minutes may be trending down. Last year he started 73 games, averaging 25.8 minutes. This year he is down to 21.0 minutes per game, and while that number is likely to come up, it shows the changing of the guard continues.
This makes the under 10.5 rebounds prop worthy of our attention tonight.
By using Portfolio EV to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly. This pits the books against each other, which shows that the DraftKings line has jumped way ahead of all the other major operators.
Lines are constantly shifting and moving, so when you find a good number, pounce on it. That is the beauty and power of Portfolio EV to find the best lines at any point in the day.
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Capela projected for 21.5 minutes and 9.19 rebounds. That is well below the 11 needed for this under to fail. Last year, Capela had 11 or more rebounds in 41 of his 73 starts (56%), but he also averaged 27.5 minutes in those games. This is a great matchup for rebounds against a sketchy Washington frontcourt, but it is Onyeka Okongwu who projects to see the majority of the center minutes off the bench, with 26.2 tonight.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 5:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate.
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