What’s up all, Lindy here! This article series will walk you through the key parts of the main NBA DFS slate every evening. Unexpected news could always come from nowhere to rattle a slate, so don’t take this as gospel. But here are a handful of key decision points for tonight’s slate that I’ll be factoring in so you are better prepared for what’s to come and can optimize your lineups accordingly. Let’s get right into today’s NBA DFS lineup advice! Need more NBA DFS lineup advice? Check out our NBA DFS lineup generator or our industry-leading NBA DFS simulation tools.
NBA DFS Lineup Questions & Advice: Key Decisions for Today
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Let’s Talk Leverage
I’ve spent the last few articles ruminating about super-chalk plays, so let’s talk a little leverage. Leverage in simplest terms is rostering a player that carries a higher chance of finishing optimal than their ownership. Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool displays that perceived leverage based on our simulations and thus is our optimal percentages minus the ownership projection.
Take a look at Stokastic’s top 10 most-leveraged plays at the moment:
Obviously, there’s a lot of news that could potentially break on tonight’s eight-game main slate to change up these calculations, but there are some interesting plays we can parse through sitting at the top of the leverage category, specifically the top 2 in Nikola Jovic and Dario Saric.
Starting with Jovic: The Miami Heat are routinely a team that have positively leveraged players due to the game environments they help create (fourth-slowest team in the NBA) and people not wanting to roster them as a result. But despite tonight’s measly 219 total against a stout Magic opposition that ranks third in adjusted defensive rating according to DunksAndThrees.com, Jovic’s increased tag on DraftKings to a season-high mark of $4,800 still has some meat on the bone. He’s started four consecutive games for Erik Spoelstra’s squad, and despite just a 15% usage in those outings, he carries a rate of 0.98 DraftKings points per minute in his 106 minutes of court time during that span.
Now, with Caleb Martin slated to return from his ankle injury tonight, there could certainly be some volatility to the minutes. But assuming he continues to start, his fantasy rate is too appealing not to take some shots on well over his current 10.2% projected ownership.
Similar to Jovic, Saric’s minutes have had some volatility of sorts lately: 14, 23, 22, 18 and 14 in his past five games. But given he is producing 1.11 DraftKings points per minute on the season, all it takes is a normal game script where he eclipses 20 minutes (he’s projected for 22 on Stokastic tonight) for him to look awfully appealing as a contrarian option at $4,400. And those previous two games? 18 minutes in a 15-point loss to the Raptors and 14 in a 36-point beatdown at the hands of the Pelicans. While the NBA has been ripe with blowouts of late, I expect this one to stay close and allow Saric that extra rotation.
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Nuke of the Night
Since positive leverage is the theme of the night, let’s take a look at rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama in the Boom/Bust Tool:
The minutes are surely frustrating, as he’s been limited to 26 minutes or fewer in every appearance since Dec.17. But among all qualified players in action tonight, he leads the entire slate in DraftKings points per minute (1.56). He’s eclipsed 35% usage in six of his past seven outings. He leads the league with a 9.7% block rate. And this is a rare spot where you can assume a Spurs competitive game, as the horrid Hornets take the floor on the other side.
So tonight’s “arme nucléaire de la nuit”? Frenchman Victor Wembanyama. ¡Bonne chance ce soir!
